olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

M/I Homes, Inc. MHO

Operative Builders · SIC 1531 · Vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)

137.96USD+7.08% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

M/I Homes is one of the nation's leading builders of single-family homes, active in 17 markets across ten states, with mortgage lending and title services supporting its sales. The company entered 2026 in a tougher setting, with homebuilding revenue down in the first nine months of the year and mortgage rates elevated, which makes margin and demand trends worth following in the coming quarters.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) stock was 137.96 USD (+7.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.5 bn USD, P/E 13.1 on diluted EPS of 10.52 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.77, 52-week range 114.04–163.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (−4.9% YoY), net income of 66.6 m USD (−37.5% YoY), diluted EPS 2.56 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.5 bn USD
shares as of 21 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.1
Diluted EPS TTM 10.52 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.62%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
114.04163.00

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
59.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
116.96 – 135.26
above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 14.5%
SMA 50 / 200
135.05 / 137.60
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.82 / -2.81
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+4.5%−1.1%+5.6 pp—
3 months−8.4%−0.5%−7.9 pp—
6 months+4.8%+4.4%+0.4 pp—
Year to date+7.8%+12.3%−4.5 pp—
1 year+8.7%+13.5%−4.8 pp−12.9%
3 years+45.5%+76.4%−30.9 pp+3.7%
5 years+131.7%+63.7%+68.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−30.0%
26 Jun 2026 → 21 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−44.7%
10 Dec 2021 → 27 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+18.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.1 bn USD
−4.9% YoY
Net income
66.6 m USD
−37.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.56
−34.7% YoY
net / operating
6.2% / 7.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.2 bn976.1 m1.2 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn920.7 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
Cost of revenue908.5 m723.3 m876.0 m861.7 m939.6 m718.1 m827.8 m851.6 m
Operating income164.0 m140.9 m155.7 m135.3 m74.6 m86.1 m101.3 m83.3 m
Income tax37.1 m34.9 m38.9 m33.3 m16.6 m21.3 m25.5 m20.3 m
Net income133.5 m111.2 m121.2 m106.5 m64.0 m67.8 m79.1 m66.6 m
Diluted EPS4.72 ≈3.984.423.922.39 ≈2.553.022.56
Operating cash flow104.4 m64.9 m37.8 m ≈43.4 m ≈-8.7 m135.7 m36.8 m ≈-13.3 m ≈
Capex2.1 m1.3 m2.6 m ≈1.4 m ≈4.3 m154.0 k5.4 m ≈3.6 m ≈
Share repurchases51.1 m50.1 m50.1 m ≈50.2 m ≈51.7 m50.1 m50.1 m ≈50.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 92 percentile of its own 37-quarter history (min 2.2, median 6.7, max 15.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.3 bn2.5 bn3.0 bn3.7 bn4.1 bn4.0 bn4.5 bn4.4 bn
Revenue YoY+16.5%+9.4%+21.8%+23.0%+10.3%−2.4%+11.7%−1.9%
Net income107.7 m127.6 m239.9 m396.9 m490.7 m465.4 m563.7 m402.9 m
Net income YoY+49.4%+18.5%+88.0%+65.4%+23.6%−5.2%+21.1%−28.5%
Diluted EPS3.704.488.2313.2817.2416.2119.7114.74
Diluted EPS YoY+63.7%+21.1%+83.7%+61.4%+29.8%−6.0%+21.6%−25.2%
net %4.7%5.1%7.9%10.6%11.9%11.5%12.5%9.1%
Free cash flow-10.7 m61.1 m156.7 m-42.1 m174.7 m546.4 m171.3 m127.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
689.2 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
3.2 bn USD
Total assets
4.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
13.2%
ROA
8.6%
FCF margin
2.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.0 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.0 bn ≈
2024
1.2 bn ≈
2025
1.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Operating income
2023
587.2 m
2024
706.1 m
2025
506.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
15.8 m
2024
17.4 m
2025
18.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
603.0 m ≈
2024
723.5 m ≈
2025
525.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
-20.0 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
141.9 m
2024
169.9 m
2025
123.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
465.4 m
2024
563.7 m
2025
402.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
16.21
2024
19.71
2025
14.74

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
28.7 m
2024
28.6 m
2025
27.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
732.8 m
2024
821.6 m
2025
689.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
34.9 m
2024
34.5 m
2025
34.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
16.4 m
2024
16.4 m
2025
16.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.0 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
552.1 m
2024
179.7 m
2025
137.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
5.8 m
2024
8.4 m
2025
9.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
546.4 m ≈
2024
171.3 m ≈
2025
127.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-18.6 m
2024
-54.9 m
2025
-59.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-112.2 m
2024
-36.1 m
2025
-210.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
65.3 m
2024
177.0 m
2025
202.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-28.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-28.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-25.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-25.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
20.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
150.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
13.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
137.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
49.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
41.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
12.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
25.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

137.96 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

23/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 21 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 23 Oct 2026
verified 1701derived 135

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
154.81
USD per share
Mid
160.02
USD per share
High
171.24
USD per share
Price: 137.96 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 16.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 13.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 154.81 – 171.24 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E154.81 – 171.24 (Mid 160.02)
    11 companies used · median multiple 15.2x · quartiles 14.7x – 16.3x
    CCS, DFH, DHI, ECG, KBH, LGIH, MTH, NVR, PHM, SDHC, TOL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality6.6%67 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Quality49.4%28 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.3%19 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-5.1%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.1x85 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation4.0%50 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.8%84 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth9/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality47/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial84/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

M/I HOMES, INC. (MHO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.9%; net margin 6.6%; ROE 8.7%.

The estimated value range is 154.81–171.24 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 160.02 USD, the price of 137.96 USD leaves a potential of 16.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 13.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • P/E (TTM): 13.1x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.8%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 49.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -5.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Operative Builders (SIC 1531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.1x
vertical median 15.2x
below median (−13.8%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 1.0x
below median (−14.0%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−9.0%)
ROE
8.7%
vertical median 9.9%
below median (−12.2%)
Net margin
6.6%
vertical median 4.2%
above median (+58.8%)
EBIT margin
8.2%
vertical median 6.1%
above median (+34.8%)
Revenue YoY
-1.9%
vertical median -1.9%
at median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.5%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.43.9 bn14.912.8%9.2%−6.9%−1% / +23%
PHMPultegroup, Inc.25.0 bn14.513.9%11.2%−3.5%+7% / +54%
NVRNVR, Inc.16.9 bn17.628.3%11.2%−1.9%−15% / +4%
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.14.6 bn12.714.4%11.1%+1.1%+13% / +85%
MTHMeritage Homes Corporation4.7 bn16.55.8%—unavailable+0% / +4%
ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.4.1 bn16.039.5%6.0%+31.5%−13% / unavailable
MHOM/i Homes, Inc.3.5 bn13.18.7%6.6%−1.9%+9% / +46%
KBHKb Home3.2 bn14.95.9%4.4%−10.0%−17% / +2%
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.2.8 bn10.714.3%14.2%−1.0%−2% / +40%
CCSCentury Communities, Inc.1.6 bn15.24.2%2.9%−6.4%−12% / −21%
LGIHLgi Homes, Inc.1.1 bn16.03.4%4.2%−22.6%−6% / −59%
BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc893.2 m—-0.7%-0.4%+1.8%+49% / +38%
HOVHovnanian Enterprises Inc79.6 m81.22.2%0.6%−0.9%−16% / +22%
LGPSLogprostyle Inc.——19.7%3.4%+7.6%−43% / unavailable
LRELead Real Estate Co., Ltd——12.2%3.5%−3.5%−14% / −84%
SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.—18.06.0%0.5%−0.4%−50% / unavailable
DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.—13.37.6%2.6%−2.9%−35% / −47%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MHO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
84.01
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
148.69
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
224.20
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
77.91
Total return -44% · Per year -17%
155.49
Total return 13% · Per year 4%
257.93
Total return 87% · Per year 23%
5 years
72.24
Total return -48% · Per year -12%
162.59
Total return 18% · Per year 3%
296.74
Total return 115% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 38.87
  • Net margin± 27.21
  • Annual revenue growth± 22.83
  • Annual dilution± 2.29

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

M/I Homes is one of the nation's leading builders of single-family homes, active in 17 markets across ten states, with mortgage lending and title services supporting its sales. The company entered 2026 in a tougher setting, with homebuilding revenue down in the first nine months of the year and mortgage rates elevated, which makes margin and demand trends worth following in the coming quarters 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a strong balance sheet with record shareholders' equity and low leverage, giving it flexibility in difficult periods 23.
  • Presence in many markets across the North and South, with well-located communities and a broad product range, lets it reach several buyer groups 1.
  • Integrated financial services and a high capture rate support sales and offer a simpler buying process 2.

Weaknesses

  • Margins compressed in 2026 due to higher lot costs and rate buydown incentives, and profit fell noticeably 2.
  • The company recorded inventory impairments and land deposit write-offs in 2025, showing its exposure to land values 1.
  • Reliance on housing demand and on buyers' access to financing makes revenue sensitive to the housing cycle 1.

Opportunities

  • Limited housing supply and favorable demographics could support long-term demand if rates decline 1.
  • Expanding the number of new communities and the affordable product segment could increase sales volume in coming years 12.
  • Policies aimed at improving housing affordability could open new financing opportunities for buyers 2.

Threats

  • High mortgage rates and a possible further rise could reduce demand even more 12.
  • Inflation, economic and trade uncertainty, and labor and material costs could press margins 12.
  • Strong competition from larger builders could lead to lower prices and costlier incentives 1.

Risks

  • Weak demand and high rateshigh

    If mortgage rates stay elevated, buyers may struggle to qualify and new orders could keep declining 12.

  • Inventory impairmenthigh

    A fall in the value of land and homes in inventory could lead to further impairments and losses, as happened in 2025 1.

  • Margin pressuremedium

    Sales incentives and higher costs could keep compressing the gross margin, especially if selling prices do not rise 12.

  • Construction and labor costsmedium

    Labor shortages and rising material costs could delay deliveries and raise costs 1.

  • Warranty and construction defectslow

    Structural or ventilation problems could create additional warranty costs, as occurred in some Florida communities 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If mortgage rates ease and demand recovers, the strong balance sheet and well-located communities could allow a quick return to profitability 23.
  • Limited housing supply and favorable demographics could support sales volume over the long term 1.
  • Expanding the community count and the integrated financial services arm could support revenue growth in the years ahead 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If mortgage rates stay above 7%, demand could keep falling and margins could remain under pressure 2.
  • Revenue and profit declined in the first nine months of 2026, and further weakness could reduce returns more 23.
  • Competition from larger builders and the risk of inventory impairments could limit the company's ability to maintain margins 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in gross margin and in the cost of rate buydown incentivesQ4 2026
  • New contract volume and the cancellation rateQ4 2026
  • Direction of mortgage rates and their effect on demand2027
  • Pace of new community openings against the year-end growth targetnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

M/I Homes, Inc. and its subsidiaries build and sell mainly single-family detached homes and attached townhomes, with base prices from roughly 190,000 to 1,250,000 dollars, aimed at first-time, move-up, empty-nester and luxury buyers 1. Homebuilding accounts for 97% of consolidated revenue, while financial services, which provides mortgage loans and title services, accounts for about 3% 1. The company was founded in 1976 and presents itself as focused on construction quality, customer service and well-located communities 1.

The reporting structure has two homebuilding regions, the Northern and Southern regions, plus a financial services segment that supports sales through mortgages and title services for the company's own buyers 1. The company expects its year-end 2026 community count to be about 5% higher than in 2025, which could support future volume if demand recovers 2.

Segments

Southern homebuilding

The Southern segment is the larger of the two, with markets in Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Tennessee 2. New contracts in the South rose to 3,810 units in the first nine months of 2026 from 3,598 in the same period of 2025, though they edged down in the third quarter 3.

Financial services

Financial services, through the mortgage subsidiary and title subsidiaries, reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of 32.7 million dollars and a capture rate that improved to 96% from 93% 2. The segment is small in total revenue but directly supports home sales 1.

Market context

The US housing market in 2025 was marked by affordability pressures, persistent inflation and elevated mortgage rates, and the company used incentives and rate buydowns to stimulate buyer traffic 1. The company believes demographic trends and constrained supply support long-term demand, although affordability, labor and material costs and interest-rate volatility remain uncertain 1.

In the third quarter of 2026 mortgage rates exceeded 7% by the end of the period and demand weakened, making industry conditions increasingly difficult 2. If rates stay high for longer, demand for the company's homes could decline further, as its own filings warn 12.

Trends

  • Elevated mortgage ratesheadwind

    High mortgage rates reduce affordability and raise the cost of rate buydown incentives, which pressured the company's margins in 2026 2. If rates fall, demand could recover, although the risk of further increases remains 1.

  • Constrained housing supplytailwind

    The supply of new and existing homes remains limited after a decade of underbuilding, which supports long-term prices and demand 1. This could partly offset cyclical weakness if demand recovers.

  • Lot and development costsheadwind

    Higher lot and land development costs contributed to lower profitability in 2026, and the company reported increased land and lot purchase spending 2. The cost pressure could ease if land prices stabilize.

  • Housing affordability policymixed

    Housing affordability has become a focus for federal policymakers, with initiatives aimed at increasing availability and access to homeownership 2. The effect of these policies remains uncertain and depends on implementation.

Competitive position

The homebuilding industry is fragmented and highly competitive, with public and private builders, some far larger and better capitalized than M/I Homes 1. Competition turns on home price, location, style, available financing, build quality and community reputation, and the pressure can lead to lower prices or richer incentives 1. In mortgage lending the company competes with banks and mortgage brokers 1.

Competition can affect new contract volume, average selling price and mortgage originations, and the cancellation rate stayed at 12% in the third quarter of 2026 23. The company points to its strong balance sheet and low debt as an advantage in managing a difficult cycle 3.

  • Public and private US homebuilders

    Named only generically in the company's filings; some are larger and have greater financial resources. No individual names appear in the analyzed sources.

  • Land developers and development companies

    Compete for land and customers and are sometimes affiliated with homebuilders; the sources do not name them.

  • Banks and mortgage brokers

    Compete with the company's financial services arm on pricing, loan terms and customer service; they are mentioned only generically.

  • Existing home resale market

    Resale homes compete directly with new homes, especially when prices and rates make the alternative more attractive; the sources name no companies.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / M/I Homes, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / M/I Homes, Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / M/I Homes, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.