olivLaw · US equity research
Mega Matrix Inc. MPU
Services-Motion Picture & Video Tape Production · SIC 7812 · Vertical: Services-Motion Picture & Video Tape Production (SIC 7812)
Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) runs FlexTV, a Singapore-based short drama streaming platform funded by subscriptions and advertising. Revenue declined noticeably in 2025 versus the prior year, and the company has meanwhile added a stablecoin-focused digital asset treasury strategy, which makes its profile more complex than a simple content producer.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) stock was 1.34 USD (−8.22% on the day), with market capitalisation 46.3 m USD, beta 0.80, 52-week range 1.31–26.80 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 28.0
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.91 – 2.98
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.21 · band width 106.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.83 / 9.72
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.44 / -0.44
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −48.5% | −5.9% | −42.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −68.1% | −4.6% | −63.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −88.8% | +0.2% | −89.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −92.6% | +7.4% | −100.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −93.6% | +8.2% | −101.8 pp | −34.3% |
| 3 years | −90.4% | +68.4% | −158.9 pp | −52.1% |
| 5 years | −99.3% | +56.5% | −155.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | 36.2 m | 26.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −27.9% |
| Net income | -8.5 m | -4.1 m | -8.9 m | -34.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.37 | -0.13 | -0.23 | -0.75 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | -24.6% | -131.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 7.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 18.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 22.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -213.2%
- ROA
- -163.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | 36.2 m | 26.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 15.2 m | 11.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | 21.0 m | 14.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | -11.2 m | -5.3 m | -11.6 m | -28.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 111.1 k | — | 4.6 m | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -11.1 m ≈ | — | -7.0 m ≈ | -23.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | -131.3 k | -101.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -9.3 m | -4.6 m | -10.8 m | -34.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -48.9 k | 87.1 k | -275.4 k | 1.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -8.5 m | -4.1 m | -8.9 m | -34.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.37 | -0.13 | -0.23 | -0.75 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 23.0 m | 31.3 m | 38.0 m | 45.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.3 m | 3.1 m | 8.9 m | 7.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | 422.8 k | 508.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 11.6 m | 14.9 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | 2.9 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 183.8 k | 113.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 13.3 m | 19.5 m | 22.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | 1.0 m | 775.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 2.9 m | 5.4 m | 4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.0 m | 10.4 m | 14.1 m | 18.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 34.5 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -5.9 m | -3.0 m | 4.1 m | -9.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -52.5 k | -4.8 m | -1.9 m | -1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 5.8 m | 3.7 m | 3.5 m | 9.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 12.5% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 46.3 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
13% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 12.5% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -131.4% | 14 (vs peers) | 50% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -283.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 50% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Mega Matrix Inc (MPU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 26.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -27.9%; net margin -131.4%; ROE -213.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 12.5% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -131.4%
- Interest coverage: -283.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Motion Picture & Video Tape Production (SIC 7812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONLionsgate Studios Corp. | 3.7 bn | — | — | -4.1% | +1.8% | +68% / +19% |
| FUBOFuboTV Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -5.8% | -0.7% | +18.6% | −79% / −80% |
| ANGXAngel Studios, Inc. | 617.3 m | — | — | -37.5% | +233.2% | −32% / unavailable |
| STRZStarz Entertainment Corp. | 419.7 m | — | -87.9% | -32.5% | −1.6% | +122% / unavailable |
| CURICuriositystream Inc. | 149.5 m | 484.2 | 0.1% | 0.0% | +40.1% | −48% / +265% |
| MPUMega Matrix Inc | 46.3 m | — | -213.2% | -131.4% | −27.9% | −94% / −90% |
| TOONKartoon Studios, Inc. | 30.3 m | 9.9 | 21.7% | 26.9% | +20.7% | −34% / −70% |
| GAIAGaia, Inc | — | — | -9.3% | -1,090.3% | +55.2% | −67% / −52% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MPU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (01 Oct 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026), 6-K (25 Jun 2026), 6-K (01 Jun 2026).
In brief
Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) runs FlexTV, a Singapore-based short drama streaming platform funded by subscriptions and advertising. Revenue declined noticeably in 2025 versus the prior year, and the company has meanwhile added a stablecoin-focused digital asset treasury strategy, which makes its profile more complex than a simple content producer.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad base of active users across several regions and a licensed-content model that reduces fixed costs.
- Marketing efficiency has clearly improved compared with the prior year, showing operational discipline.
- The platform has several revenue streams, including subscriptions, advertising and licensing, which diversifies dependence on a single model.
Weaknesses
- Total revenue declined in 2025, and the company still reports an adjusted EBITDA loss.
- The advertising business is new, with a limited track record, and clients have no long-term contracts.
- The company depends on app distribution platforms and on third parties for content, which limits its control.
Opportunities
- Integrating AI-generated content could lower production costs and widen the offering.
- Partnerships with mobile operators in Southeast Asia could open new distribution channels.
- Growing licensing of series to third-party platforms could bring more predictable revenue.
Threats
- Intense competition in the short drama market could keep user acquisition costs high.
- Digital asset volatility could lead to further impairments and affect financial results.
- Content and copyright rules could lead to the app being suspended on distribution platforms.
Risks
- Need for additional capitalhigh
The company says it will need additional financing, and equity or convertible debt issuances could dilute existing shareholders. If funding is not available on acceptable terms, marketing and product investment could be curtailed.
- Digital asset treasury volatilityhigh
Digital assets on the balance sheet are subject to large price swings, and the company has already recognized impairment losses. If prices fall further, results could be significantly affected.
- Dependence on distribution platformsmedium
The apps are distributed through the Apple App Store and Google Play, and suspension or changed terms by these platforms could shrink the user base.
- User retentionmedium
Users may cancel subscriptions for economic reasons or because of competition, and price changes could be unpopular. This could reduce subscription revenue.
- Regulatory and content risklow
Copyright complaints or content considered inappropriate could lead to removal of the app and harm to its reputation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If marketing efficiency keeps improving, the operating loss could narrow further, and the company could reach profitability sooner than expected.
- Expanding AI-generated content could reduce costs and support a more varied offering in new markets.
- Growing licensing to third-party platforms and regional partnerships could diversify revenue and reduce reliance on subscriptions.
What would break the thesis
- Falling subscription revenue and fewer paying users could suggest the monetization model does not hold up without heavy investment.
- The digital asset treasury strategy brings exposure to volatile assets, and impairments could affect results even if streaming performs well.
- The short drama market is competitive, and rival pressure could force the company to raise user acquisition spending again.
What to watch
- Trend in subscription revenue and number of paying usersQ1 2026
- Level of adjusted EBITDA loss and advertising expense relative to revenueQ1 2026
- Results of integrating AI-generated content2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (01 Oct 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026), 6-K (25 Jun 2026), 6-K (01 Jun 2026).
The business
Mega Matrix Inc. is a Cayman Islands holding company headquartered in Singapore that indirectly owns the FlexTV platform through Yuder Pte. Ltd. FlexTV offers short dramas in English, Japanese and Thai, translated into multiple languages for users in Europe, the Americas, Southeast Asia and other regions. According to the annual report, the company shifted from self-developed production to a lighter model based on third-party content procurement, and its revenue comes from subscriptions and in-app purchases, advertising and content licensing. Since 2025 it has also pursued a digital asset treasury strategy focused on stablecoins and governance tokens, separate from the streaming business.
Financially, the company reported a smaller adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025 than in the prior year, indicating tighter control of marketing costs. However, it remains loss-making, and its funding has relied on share issuances, including an ATM program and a private placement, as well as on proceeds from digital asset transactions.
Segments
Content licensing
The company licenses its own series to third-party online platforms for an agreed period, with a fixed fee and a variable component tied to the customers' revenue. The segment generated about 1.9 million USD in 2025, up from 0.9 million USD in 2024.
Market context
The short drama market intensified in 2025, with high user acquisition costs and heavy marketing spend at most peers, which posted operating losses. The company responded by reducing advertising expenses as a share of revenue from 62% to 47% and raising average revenue per active user to 3.42 USD. If this efficiency trend holds, operating margins could improve more than in the past, but how long this lasts remains unclear.
The company's streaming activity spans several regions, and average revenue per user varies widely: it is highest in the United States and Canada and lowest in Latin America. The company also notes that penetration and growth of its user base have fluctuated across jurisdictions, so global expansion depends on local content success.
Trends
- Marketing efficiencytailwind
A lower share of advertising expense relative to revenue suggests user acquisition has become more disciplined. If cost discipline holds, the operating loss could keep narrowing.
- Shift to licensed contentmixed
The company moved away from self-production toward licensing third-party content, which reduces fixed costs. The risk is that reliance on external suppliers limits differentiation of the series.
- Declining subscription revenueheadwind
Subscription revenue fell in 2025 compared with 2024, and the number of paying users dropped considerably. If this continues, growth could depend more on advertising and licensing.
- Digital asset treasury strategyheadwind
The company added digital assets such as ENA and BTC to its balance sheet, and their valuations are volatile, with impairment losses of about 5.5 million USD in 2025. If their prices keep fluctuating, financial results could be affected independently of the streaming business.
Competitive position
The company competes with other short drama platforms, but also with linear television, streaming services, video games and user-generated content, which compete for the same leisure time. Larger rivals have greater financial resources to expand their offerings and attract advertising.
In advertising, FlexTV faces print media, billboards, television and radio, as well as other digital advertising providers. On distribution, the company depends on the Apple App Store and Google Play, where platforms can change their terms.
- Other short drama platforms
Direct competitors in the short drama market, some with greater financial resources, competing for the same users and advertising.
- Video streaming platforms
Video content providers competing for users' leisure time, including services offering pirated content, whose presence affects user retention.
- Linear television
Competitor for viewers' attention and advertising budgets, particularly through television and radio channels.
- User-generated content
Free entertainment alternative that can reduce users' willingness to pay for subscriptions.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Apr 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)16 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Mega Matrix Inc. · 16 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.