olivLaw · US equity research
National HealthCare Corporation NHC
Services-Skilled Nursing Care Facilities · SIC 8051 · Vertical: Health services (SIC 805x)
National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing, assisted living, homecare and hospice services, with a focus on post-acute and senior care. In 2026 it expanded its portfolio through acquisitions, including the purchase of facilities it had previously leased from a landlord, which changes its asset base and rent expense structure.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) stock was 212.40 USD (+3.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 23.9 on diluted EPS of 8.89 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.22%, beta 0.46, 52-week range 124.93–247.94 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 408.0 m USD (+8.8% YoY), net income of 40.3 m USD (+70.0% YoY), diluted EPS 2.54 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 197.64 – 254.77
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 25.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 224.64 / 195.12
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -5.47 / -2.31
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.8% | −1.1% | −6.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.1% | −0.5% | −3.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +25.4% | +4.4% | +21.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +54.9% | +12.3% | +42.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +73.9% | +13.5% | +60.4 pp | +14.2% |
| 3 years | +199.5% | +76.4% | +123.1 pp | +142.2% |
| 5 years | +178.2% | +63.7% | +114.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 340.2 m | 369.4 m | 373.7 m | 374.9 m | 382.7 m | 386.5 m | 381.8 m | 408.0 m |
| Operating income | 22.8 m | 28.9 m | 30.8 m | 34.1 m | 30.4 m | 33.1 m | 32.3 m | 48.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 10.6 m | 11.4 m | 11.0 m | 11.0 m | 11.2 m | 11.8 m | 11.6 m | 11.2 m |
| Interest expense | 1.7 m | 2.3 m | 2.1 m | 2.0 m | 1.5 m | 816.0 k | 269.0 k | 13.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 58.0 m | 6.1 m | 43.7 m | 32.2 m | 54.4 m | 32.1 m | 44.8 m | 54.0 m |
| Income tax | 15.3 m | 28.0 k | 11.4 m | 8.1 m | 13.4 m | 6.9 m | 8.7 m | 13.5 m |
| Net income | 42.8 m | 6.1 m | 32.2 m | 23.7 m | 39.2 m | 24.8 m | 35.9 m | 40.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.73 | 0.39 ≈ | 2.07 | 1.52 | 2.50 | 1.58 ≈ | 2.27 | 2.54 |
| Operating cash flow | 34.2 m ≈ | 12.8 m | 39.3 m | 62.8 m ≈ | 66.2 m ≈ | 16.8 m | 62.5 m | 43.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 5.7 m ≈ | 8.2 m | 6.1 m | 10.2 m ≈ | 9.7 m ≈ | 10.4 m | 9.6 m | 12.5 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 9.4 m ≈ | 9.4 m | 9.4 m | 9.4 m ≈ | 9.9 m ≈ | 9.9 m | 9.9 m | 10.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 2.1 m ≈ | 0 | 1.7 m | 4.7 m ≈ | 3.2 m ≈ | 5.2 m | 16.3 m | 7.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 77 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 6.5, median 19.6, max 55.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 980.3 m | 996.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.7% | +1.6% | +3.2% | +4.5% | +1.1% | +5.1% | +14.5% | +16.1% |
| Net income | 59.0 m | 68.2 m | 41.9 m | 138.6 m | 22.4 m | 66.8 m | 101.9 m | 120.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +4.9% | +15.7% | −38.6% | +231.0% | −83.8% | +197.6% | +52.6% | +17.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.87 | 4.44 | 2.72 | 8.99 | 1.45 | 4.34 | 6.53 | 7.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +4.9% | +14.7% | −38.7% | +230.5% | −83.9% | +199.3% | +50.5% | +17.5% |
| net % | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
| Free cash flow | 68.7 m | 73.7 m | 181.4 m | 23.0 m | -21.5 m | 83.3 m | 79.7 m | 148.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 92.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 40.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -52.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.04x
- Current ratio
- 1.82x
- ROE
- 11.7%
- ROA
- 7.9%
- FCF margin
- 9.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 48.2 m | 50.9 m | 31.9 m | 57.5 m | 89.9 m | 128.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 42.0 m | 40.7 m | 40.5 m | 42.0 m | 42.0 m | 44.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 90.2 m ≈ | 91.6 m ≈ | 72.4 m ≈ | 99.5 m ≈ | 131.9 m ≈ | 173.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.4 m | 845.0 k | 563.0 k | 324.0 k | 4.1 m | 6.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | 27.2 m | 88.7 m | 136.4 m | 162.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 10.4 m | 11.0 m | 7.3 m | 23.5 m | 34.3 m | 39.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 41.9 m | 138.6 m | 22.4 m | 66.8 m | 101.9 m | 120.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.72 | 8.99 | 1.45 | 4.34 | 6.53 | 7.67 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 15.4 m | 15.4 m | 15.4 m | 15.4 m | 15.6 m | 15.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.08 | 2.11 | 2.26 | 2.34 | 2.42 | 2.53 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 147.1 m | 107.6 m | 58.7 m | 107.1 m | 76.1 m | 92.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 89.7 m | 96.1 m | 100.0 m | 108.5 m | 135.3 m | 139.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 8.8 m | 8.6 m | 7.1 m | 7.4 m | 9.0 m | 7.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 456.8 m | 426.6 m | 353.9 m | 406.2 m | 424.4 m | 461.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 520.3 m | 521.0 m | 506.5 m | 493.3 m | 684.3 m | 673.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 21.3 m | 168.3 m | 168.3 m | 168.3 m | 170.5 m | 170.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 0 | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | 19.9 m | 19.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | — | — | 0 | 7.5 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 0 | 129.5 m | 32.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 281.2 m | 263.2 m | 197.9 m | 214.5 m | 234.8 m | 253.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 563.9 m | 494.9 m | 397.9 m | 400.3 m | 541.3 m | 451.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 798.3 m | 908.5 m | 877.5 m | 910.5 m | 983.2 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 203.3 m | 62.4 m | 8.7 m | 111.2 m | 107.3 m | 185.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 21.9 m | 39.4 m | 30.2 m | 27.9 m | 27.6 m | 36.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 181.4 m ≈ | 23.0 m ≈ | -21.5 m ≈ | 83.3 m ≈ | 79.7 m ≈ | 148.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -63.9 m | -65.9 m | -6.0 m | -17.6 m | -236.7 m | -33.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -41.9 m | -35.3 m | -47.6 m | -42.5 m | 100.3 m | -136.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 31.9 m | 32.0 m | 34.6 m | 35.6 m | 37.0 m | 38.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 53.0 k | 836.0 k | 9.9 m | 2.5 m | 13.5 m | 14.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 70 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet98
- Valuation26
- Quality84
- Growth99
- Returns58
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 33.25 – 248.86 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)148.53 – 224.77 (Mid 178.30)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 148.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 20.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E203.65 – 248.86 (Mid 248.58)3 companies used · median multiple 28.0x · quartiles 22.9x – 28.0xENSG, HCSG, PACS
- Dividend discount (DDM)33.25 – 44.71 (Mid 38.14)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 70/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.6% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.0% | 100 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 104.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.8% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 74.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 56.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.9x | 28 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 17.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.4% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.2% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 27.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet98/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth99/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns58/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation26/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP (NHC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.1%; net margin 9.0%; ROE 13.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.
The estimated value range is 148.53–224.77 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 178.30 USD, the price of 212.40 USD leaves a potential of -16.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -19.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 70/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 9.0%
- FCF conversion: 104.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 74.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.2x
- Interest coverage: 56.6x
- Current ratio: 1.9x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 27.1%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 23.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 17.3x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Health services (SIC 805x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENSGEnsign Group, Inc | 11.0 bn | 28.0 | 17.1% | 7.0% | +18.7% | +1% / +76% |
| PACSPACS Group, Inc. | 8.0 bn | 28.0 | 26.6% | 4.9% | +29.3% | +50% / unavailable |
| NHCNational Healthcare Corp | 3.3 bn | 23.9 | 13.1% | 9.0% | +16.1% | +74% / +199% |
| BKDBrookdale Senior Living Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -362.1% | -4.5% | +2.2% | +1% / +111% |
| HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 17.9 | 20.4% | 5.6% | +7.1% | +41% / +173% |
| SNDASonida Senior Living, Inc. | 1.8 bn | — | -26.7% | -23.3% | +25.2% | +14% / +282% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NHC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 135.80 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 239.30 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 359.38 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 151.89 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 299.18 Total return 45% · Per year 13% | 490.39 Total return 137% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 169.87 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 374.04 Total return 85% · Per year 13% | 669.15 Total return 227% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 74.80
- Net margin± 52.36
- Annual revenue growth± 40.16
- Annual dilution± 4.40
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing, assisted living, homecare and hospice services, with a focus on post-acute and senior care. In 2026 it expanded its portfolio through acquisitions, including the purchase of facilities it had previously leased from a landlord, which changes its asset base and rent expense structure.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified service portfolio, from skilled nursing to hospice and homecare, which reduces dependence on one type of activity.
- Quality measured by CMS ratings, with a share of four- and five-star facilities above the industry average.
- A mixed ownership structure that gives control over part of the real estate and flexibility in management.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on government funding, particularly Medicare and Medicaid, exposes revenue to pricing decisions.
- Labor costs remain high and hard to control, compressing operating margins.
- The dispute with the landlord of key facilities creates uncertainty over long-term occupancy terms.
Opportunities
- Buying previously leased facilities could reduce rent costs and increase control over assets.
- Developing assisted living and residential projects with partners could diversify revenue sources.
- Quality-based payment could reward facilities with good results if performance is sustained.
Threats
- Rate cuts in federal and state programs could directly affect revenues and margins.
- Overbuilding of assisted living could pressure occupancy and pricing.
- Staffing rules, if reactivated, could add significant operating costs.
Risks
- NHI lease disputehigh
NHI alleged that the tenant subsidiary was not complying with non-monetary provisions of the master lease, and the company disputes these allegations 1. Loss of operating rights could affect many facilities.
- Dependence on public fundinghigh
A substantial share of revenue comes from Medicare and Medicaid, programs subject to frequent change. Rate reductions could quickly affect margins 1.
- Labor cost pressuremedium
Shortages of nurses and qualified staff can raise wages and benefits, and staffing mandates could impose additional costs 1.
- Retroactive payment adjustmentsmedium
Payments can be adjusted retroactively after audits, and some costs may be disallowed, which could create repayments 1.
- Professional liability reserveslow
Reserves for professional liability and workers' compensation rose in 2025, and the company sets aside restricted assets to cover them, tying up capital 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rising occupancy and a quality rating above the industry average could support revenues if the trend continues.
- Buying facilities from NHI could reduce rent costs and improve margins over the longer term.
- Diversification across skilled nursing, homecare and hospice offers a steadier base than a single service type.
What would break the thesis
- Heavy reliance on government programs exposes the company to rate cuts it cannot control.
- The dispute with the main landlord and a costly acquisition could raise debt and reduce financial flexibility.
- Labor costs could stay elevated, and staffing rules could add further pressure.
What to watch
- Integration of the 32 facilities bought from NHI and effects on rent expense2026
- Trend in occupancy across owned and leased facilitiesQ3 2026
- Outcome of the NHI dispute and any changes to the master leasenext 10-K
- Updates on federal staffing rules and Medicare rate decisions2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NHC's principal business is operating skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living, homecare and hospice agencies, and behavioral health hospitals 1. The company says it provides post-acute and senior care, and health care services represented 96.8% of net operating revenues in fiscal 2025 1. Beyond operations, it provides management and accounting services to third parties and insures its facilities' workers' compensation and liability risks 1.
At December 31, 2025, the company operated or managed 80 skilled nursing facilities with 10,329 licensed beds, 26 assisted living facilities, nine independent living facilities, three behavioral health hospitals, 34 homecare and 33 hospice agencies in nine states 1. Of the 80 facilities, 43 are owned, 29 leased and 8 managed for third parties 1. On July 1, 2026, the company bought the land and facilities of 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities previously leased from NHI for $560,000,000 2.
The model combines direct operation, ownership of real estate and management for third parties, which brings management fees generally set at 6% of the managed centers' net operating revenues 1. Occupancy is a central management focus, and the company reports it rose in fiscal 2025 and in the first half of 2026 2.
Segments
Homecare and hospice
The segment covers homecare and hospice agencies, including the Caris Healthcare subsidiary 1. In fiscal 2025 it produced net operating revenues of $154,086 thousand and income before income taxes of $30,060 thousand 1. Revenues are smaller than the inpatient segment, but its margin in 2025 was higher, per the annual report figures.
Market context
NHC operates in long-term and post-acute senior care, where financing depends heavily on government programs. In fiscal 2025, Medicare accounted for 31% of net patient revenues, Medicaid 30% and managed care 12% 1. Labor pressure remains high, and the company reported a 4.0% rise in the composite skilled nursing per diem in 2025 1.
Demographic trends support demand for senior services, but the annual report notes overbuilding of assisted living in some markets, which can limit occupancy 1. For this reason the company emphasizes care quality and partnerships with hospital systems and other post-acute operators to sustain census 2.
Trends
- Staffing rules and labor costsheadwind
Federal minimum staffing rules for skilled nursing facilities are barred from enforcement under the OBBB law from July 2025 until 2034, but some states already have their own requirements 1. If those rules return, labor costs could rise, while the existing shortage of qualified staff has already increased wages 1.
- Shift to quality-based paymentmixed
Medicare reduces skilled nursing payments by up to 2 percentage points and redistributes funds based on quality measures, and the homecare model adjusts payments by up to 5% 1. Facilities with better ratings could benefit if this trend strengthens.
- Lease dispute with NHImixed
NHI alleged that the company's tenant subsidiary was not complying with non-monetary provisions of the master lease, which the company disputes 1. The July 2026 purchase of 32 facilities partly addresses this exposure and reduces reliance on leased property 2.
- Rising occupancytailwind
Census in owned and leased skilled nursing facilities rose in the first half of 2026, especially among Medicare and private pay patients 2. If the trend holds, it could support revenue without new capacity.
Competitive position
The senior care market is fragmented, with large and regional operators competing for the same patients and staff. Competition for private-pay residents and qualified clinical staff is intense, and labor costs are a common pressure across providers 1. NHC distinguishes itself with a quality rating above the industry average 2.
The competitive edge seems to come from combining direct operations, third-party management and property ownership, which gives flexibility in strategy. However, the lack of clearly identified US-listed peers makes direct margin comparison difficult.
- Regional skilled nursing operators
Compete for patients and staff in the same southeastern and mid-western states.
- Assisted living operators
Compete for private-pay residents, where overbuilding exists in some markets.
- Homecare and hospice providers
Compete in home-based care, where payment is per period or per visit.
- Third-party facility managers
Compete for management and accounting contracts with property owners.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report11 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report01 Jul 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 May 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report08 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / National HealthCare Corporation · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / National HealthCare Corporation · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / National HealthCare Corporation · 11 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.