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olivLaw · US equity research

ONEOK, Inc. OKE

Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution · SIC 4923 · Vertical: Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution (SIC 4923)

88.60USD−3.63% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

ONEOK is one of North America's largest integrated energy infrastructure companies, operating a pipeline network of about 60,000 miles that transports natural gas, NGLs, refined products and crude oil. About 90% of its consolidated earnings are fee-based, and in 2026 the company raised its financial guidance, which makes it relevant for US energy investors.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) stock was 88.60 USD (−3.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 55.9 bn USD, P/E 13.8 on diluted EPS of 6.44 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.79%, beta 0.50, 52-week range 66.27–97.51 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 12.5 bn USD (+44.3% YoY), net income of 1.4 bn USD (+43.8% YoY), diluted EPS 2.13 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
55.9 bn USD
shares as of 19 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.8
Diluted EPS TTM 6.44 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.27%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
4.79%
DPS 12m 4.24
Beta (2y)
0.50
Volatility (1y) 28%
52-week range
66.2797.51

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
39.2
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
88.60 – 97.64
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.00 · band width 9.7%
SMA 50 / 200
92.73 / 88.98
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.32 / 0.73
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+0.0%−1.1%+1.1 pp—
3 months+1.6%−0.5%+2.0 pp—
6 months+3.5%+4.4%−0.9 pp—
Year to date+20.5%+12.3%+8.2 pp—
1 year+37.8%+13.5%+24.2 pp+2.1%
3 years+32.6%+76.4%−43.9 pp+35.8%
5 years+36.9%+63.7%−26.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−12.6%
08 Sept 2026 → 30 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−45.1%
22 Nov 2024 → 04 Nov 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
12.5 bn USD
+44.3% YoY
Net income
1.4 bn USD
+43.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.13
+43.0% YoY
net / operating
10.8% / 12.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue7.0 bn8.0 bn7.9 bn8.6 bn9.1 bn9.6 bn12.0 bn12.5 bn
Cost of revenue4.5 bn5.7 bn5.4 bn6.0 bn6.4 bn7.1 bn9.2 bn9.6 bn
Operating income1.6 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn1.5 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn1.6 bn
Depreciation & amortisation344.0 m380.0 m368.0 m378.0 m388.0 m378.0 m387.0 m395.0 m
Interest expense448.0 m442.0 m438.0 m450.0 m453.0 m439.0 m434.0 m415.0 m
Pre-tax income1.3 bn888.0 m1.1 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.0 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn
Income tax328.0 m197.0 m260.0 m297.0 m274.0 m245.0 m299.0 m-26.0 m
Net income923.0 m636.0 m841.0 m939.0 m977.0 m774.0 m966.0 m1.4 bn
Diluted EPS1.57 ≈1.041.341.491.55 ≈1.231.532.13
Operating cash flow1.6 bn904.0 m1.5 bn ≈1.6 bn ≈1.5 bn934.0 m2.1 bn ≈1.4 bn ≈
Capex562.0 m629.0 m749.0 m ≈804.0 m ≈970.0 m864.0 m613.0 m ≈937.0 m ≈
Dividends paid579.0 m643.0 m644.0 m ≈648.0 m ≈648.0 m674.0 m674.0 m ≈674.0 m ≈
Share repurchases159.0 m30.0 m0 ≈0 ≈45.0 m———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 18 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 11.4, median 19.4, max 40.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue12.6 bn10.2 bn8.5 bn16.5 bn22.4 bn17.7 bn21.7 bn33.6 bn
Revenue YoY+3.4%−19.3%−16.0%+93.6%+35.3%−21.0%+22.7%+55.0%
Net income1.2 bn1.3 bn612.8 m1.5 bn1.7 bn2.7 bn3.0 bn3.4 bn
Net income YoY+197.0%+11.0%−52.1%+144.8%+14.8%+54.4%+14.1%+11.8%
Diluted EPS2.783.071.423.353.845.485.175.42
Diluted EPS YoY+115.5%+10.4%−53.7%+135.9%+14.6%+42.7%−5.7%+4.8%
net %9.1%12.6%7.2%9.1%7.7%15.0%14.0%10.1%
Free cash flow45.2 m-1.9 bn-296.3 m1.8 bn1.7 bn2.8 bn2.9 bn2.4 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
78.0 m USD
Financial debt
31.6 bn USD
Net debt
31.5 bn USD
Equity
22.6 bn USD
Total assets
66.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.40x
Current ratio
0.71x
ROE
15.2%
ROA
5.2%
FCF margin
7.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
17.7 bn
2024
21.7 bn
2025
33.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
11.9 bn
2024
13.3 bn
2025
23.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
5.7 bn ≈
2024
8.4 bn ≈
2025
10.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Operating income
2023
4.1 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
769.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
4.8 bn ≈
2024
6.1 bn ≈
2025
7.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
866.0 m
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
3.5 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
838.0 m
2024
998.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.7 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.48
2024
5.17
2025
5.42

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
485.4 m
2024
586.5 m
2025
625.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.82
2024
3.96
2025
4.12

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
338.0 m
2024
733.0 m
2025
78.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
639.0 m
2024
748.0 m
2025
948.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
3.1 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
32.7 bn
2024
45.9 bn
2025
47.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
5.0 bn
2024
8.1 bn
2025
8.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.3 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
44.3 bn
2024
64.1 bn
2025
66.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
820.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
21.2 bn
2024
31.0 bn
2025
30.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.5 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
6.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
16.5 bn
2024
22.1 bn
2025
22.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
4.4 bn
2024
4.9 bn
2025
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.8 bn ≈
2024
2.9 bn ≈
2025
2.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-6.4 bn
2024
-6.6 bn
2025
-3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
-2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
159.0 m
2025
75.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
55.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
31.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
25.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
40.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
12.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
30.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
25.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
17.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
65.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
105.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
26.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
5.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
2.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
62.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
77.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
12 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
55.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
82.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
13.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
13.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
22.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 58 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

88.60 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 55.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
55.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
55.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 19 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2908derived 217

Score by group

  • Valuation58
  • Returns50
  • Quality75
  • Balance sheet17
  • Growth91

Estimated value range

Low
93.67
USD per share
Mid
114.16
USD per share
High
145.19
USD per share
Price: 88.60 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 28.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 22.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 54.14 – 217.03 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)81.81 – 171.24 (Mid 114.17)
    WACC 7.9% · starting FCFF 4.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 6.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA107.27 – 119.14 (Mid 114.15)
    3 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 12.3x – 13.3x
    CPK, RGCO, SWX
  • Peers: P/E105.54 – 217.03 (Mid 129.96)
    4 companies used · median multiple 20.2x · quartiles 16.4x – 33.7x
    CPK, CTRI, RGCO, SWX
  • Dividend discount (DDM)54.14 – 72.81 (Mid 62.10)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution (SIC 4923)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 58/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality9.0%100 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality9.4%63 (on a fixed band)6%
FCF conversion · Quality62.2%46 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth14.5%100 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth12.2%81 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.5x14 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.5x31 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x4 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.8x80 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.8x38 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.5%57 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.9%70 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns105.6%21 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet17/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth91/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation58/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 33.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 55.0%; net margin 9.4%; ROE 17.9%; net debt/EBITDA 3.5x.

The estimated value range is 93.67–145.19 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 114.16 USD, the price of 88.60 USD leaves a potential of 28.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 22.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 58/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 9.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 12.2%
  • P/E (TTM): 13.8x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 4.9%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.5x
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 105.6%

Versus the vertical median

Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution (SIC 4923) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.8x
vertical median 22.6x
below median (−39.1%)
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
vertical median 12.9x
below median (−16.3%)
P/S
1.3x
vertical median 1.5x
below median (−11.7%)
P/B
2.4x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+17.4%)
ROE
17.9%
vertical median 11.7%
above median (+53.2%)
Net margin
9.4%
vertical median 7.0%
above median (+35.5%)
EBIT margin
14.2%
vertical median 22.3%
below median (−36.4%)
Revenue YoY
55.0%
vertical median 12.6%
above median (+335.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
3.5x
vertical median 4.3x
below median (−18.4%)
Dividend yield
4.8%
vertical median 3.2%
above median (+51.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
OKEONEOK, Inc.55.9 bn13.817.9%9.4%+55.0%+38% / +33%
SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.6.7 bn12.214.1%—+9.6%+11% / +56%
CPKChesapeake Utilities Corp3.4 bn22.69.5%15.1%+18.1%+2% / +48%
CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.2.1 bn67.14.0%0.9%+13.1%−9% / unavailable
BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure Corporation1.7 bn——-6.6%+0.1%−16% / +24%
NEXTNextdecade Corporation1.7 bn129.9292.6%—unavailable+2% / +25%
RGCORGC Resources, Inc.248.3 m17.811.7%13.1%+12.6%+6% / +36%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OKE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
57.77
Total return -31% · Per year -31%
101.68
Total return 20% · Per year 20%
152.54
Total return 79% · Per year 79%
3 years
67.93
Total return -10% · Per year -3%
133.37
Total return 70% · Per year 19%
217.93
Total return 170% · Per year 39%
5 years
79.89
Total return 15% · Per year 3%
174.93
Total return 134% · Per year 19%
311.35
Total return 300% · Per year 32%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 33.34
  • Net margin± 23.34
  • Annual revenue growth± 17.48
  • Annual dilution± 1.96

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

ONEOK is one of North America's largest integrated energy infrastructure companies, operating a pipeline network of about 60,000 miles that transports natural gas, NGLs, refined products and crude oil 1. About 90% of its consolidated earnings are fee-based 1, and in 2026 the company raised its financial guidance, which makes it relevant for US energy investors 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has an integrated network that is hard to replicate, with a large share of earnings from fee-based contracts that reduces direct exposure to commodity prices 1.
  • Its ESG rating and recognition from sustainability analysts support access to financing and investor confidence 1.
  • Long-term contracts with investment-grade customers, including minimum volume commitments, provide relatively predictable revenues 2.

Weaknesses

  • Higher debt after acquisitions and bond issues has raised interest expense, which narrows financial room to maneuver 1.
  • Gathering and NGL segments carry volumetric risk because they depend on drilling activity and on declining well production 1.
  • Large capital projects carry execution and schedule risks, and some, such as Medford, have already been phased 2.

Opportunities

  • Permian volume growth and new plants and pipelines could expand the customer base and long-term revenues 1.
  • NGL and LPG export terminals could connect US production with international demand if markets stay favorable 1.
  • Optimization and marketing activities can capture price differentials between hubs and regions, which could boost earnings in volatile periods 2.

Threats

  • A prolonged period of low commodity prices could reduce drilling activity and the volumes moving through the company's infrastructure 1.
  • High interest rates and inflation could raise the cost of capital and projects, weighing on returns 1.
  • Environmental and safety regulation, along with operational and cyber risks, could create costs that are not fully insured 1.

Risks

  • Volumetric riskhigh

    If drilling activity in its operating regions declines significantly, gathering and transportation volumes could fall, affecting revenues 1.

  • Commodity price volatilityhigh

    Gas, NGL and crude prices can swing sharply, which could hurt earnings and cash flows, especially where the company does not fully hedge its exposure 1.

  • Debt and cost of capitalmedium

    Higher debt and interest costs, including short-term borrowings and a new term loan, could limit financial flexibility if funding conditions worsen 21.

  • Operational and insurance risksmedium

    Operational incidents, outages and cyberattacks could cause losses not fully covered by insurance, and premiums may rise 1.

  • Project executionmedium

    Large projects such as new plants and pipelines could face delays or cost overruns, and their timelines may change 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If gas and NGL production in the Permian keeps growing, the company's integrated network could generate additional volumes and revenues, particularly through new processing and transport projects 1.
  • A high share of fee-based earnings and long-term contracts with solid customers could give more predictable earnings than many other energy segments 21.
  • The raised 2026 guidance and a growing dividend point to solid execution that could support shareholder confidence if the trend holds 32.

What would break the thesis

  • If commodity prices stay low for a long time, drilling activity could slow and volumes in gathering and processing could decline 1.
  • Higher debt and interest expense could reduce the company's capacity to fund new projects or repurchase shares in difficult conditions 12.
  • Dependence on third-party producers and infrastructure could expose the company to unforeseen interruptions that affect volumes and revenues in coming quarters 1.

What to watch

  • Execution of the Bighorn plant and Permian expansions2027
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA and net income guidance versus quarterly resultsquarterly results 2026
  • Completion of the Greater Denver pipeline and the Texas City terminalQ3 2026 / early 2028

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE: OKE) is a midstream service provider offering gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage and marine export services. The company expanded through the EnLink acquisition, completed in January 2025, which is now a wholly owned subsidiary 1. Total revenues for fiscal 2025 were 33,629 million USD and adjusted EBITDA was 8,020 million USD 1.

The strategy centers on safety, an engaged workforce and a sustainable business model that keeps financial strength and investment-grade credit ratings. High-return capital projects in existing regions, dividend growth and a share repurchase program of up to 2,0 billion USD are stated priorities 1.

Segments

Natural Gas Liquids

The segment gathers and fractionates NGLs into purity products delivered to petrochemical companies, propane distributors and exporters. Fractionation capacity is 1.2 MMBbl/d, and the Elk Creek expansion completed in 2025 raised Rocky Mountain pipeline capacity to 575 MBbl/d 1. The Texas City export terminal, a joint venture with MPLX, involves about 1.0 billion USD of investment 1.

Market context

ONEOK operates in a market linked to gas and oil production from US shale basins and to demand from refineries and consumption centers. According to the quarterly report, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to a volatile commodity price environment in the first half of 2026, highlighting the importance of reliable energy infrastructure 2.

A more constructive pricing environment from late in the first quarter of 2026 supported the guidance increase, but volumes also depend on producers' drilling activity, which can slow at low prices 31. The company expects most of its growth opportunities not to depend on a recovery in commodity prices 1.

Trends

  • Permian production growthtailwind

    Gas and NGL volumes from the Permian are growing, prompting ONEOK to build new processing plants and export pipelines. If production keeps rising, demand for these assets could support long-term revenues 1.

  • NGL and LPG exportstailwind

    The Texas City export terminal and the MBTC pipeline are designed to meet foreign demand for liquefied petroleum gas, with completion expected in early 2028 1. Success depends on international demand and execution capacity.

  • Commodity price volatilityheadwind

    Gas, NGL and crude prices are volatile and can affect how much customers produce. Lower realized prices could reduce demand for some services, particularly in gathering and processing 1.

  • Capital costs and interest ratesmixed

    Higher interest rates and inflation raise borrowing and project costs. Rising financing expenses were already visible in recent years, which could limit financial flexibility if conditions stay difficult 12.

Competitive position

ONEOK competes with other midstream companies operating in the same basins, especially in the Permian and Mid-Continent, for gathering, processing and transportation contracts. The sources do not explicitly name competitors, so the picture rests on the company's geographic footprint 1.

ONEOK's competitive advantage lies in its integrated network and long-term contracts with investment-grade counterparties, including minimum volume commitments 2. Competitive pressure could increase if new supply sources outside its operating regions are diverted to other markets 1.

  • MPLX LP

    partner in the Texas City Logistics and MBTC Pipeline joint ventures, and also active in midstream in the same regions; its competitive position is not detailed in the sources.

  • WhiteWater

    company that builds and operates the Eiger Express pipeline, indirectly competing for Permian gas transportation.

  • Enbridge Inc.

    partner in the Eiger project through the Matterhorn joint venture, also active in Permian gas transportation.

  • Permian pipeline and processing operators

    the sources do not name specific competitors; such operators compete for the same processing and transportation contracts.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 08 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
  • Current report27 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report15 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report31 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
  • Current report03 Aug 2026
    Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 May 2026
    Shareholder vote
  • Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
  • Current report28 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement01 Apr 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ONEOK, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / ONEOK, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ONEOK, Inc. · 28 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.