olivLaw · US equity research
PepsiCo, Inc. PEP
Beverages · SIC 2080 · Vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)
PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food group with brands such as Lay’s, Doritos, Gatorade and Pepsi-Cola. In the first three quarters of 2026 net revenue rose 6.7% to 68898 million USD, and organic growth was 2.7%. The company updated its 2026 guidance, now expecting organic growth of about 3%.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) stock was 142.42 USD (+3.75% on the day), with market capitalisation 194.1 bn USD, P/E 18.7 on diluted EPS of 7.63 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.04%, beta 0.04, 52-week range 123.73–170.49 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 24.2 bn USD (+6.4% YoY), net income of 3.0 bn USD (+136.0% YoY), diluted EPS 2.18 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 124.28 – 142.44
- in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 13.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 133.29 / 145.89
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.12 / 1.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.3% | −1.1% | +14.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.6% | −0.5% | +3.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.7% | +4.4% | −13.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.8% | +12.3% | −13.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.3% | +13.5% | −13.9 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | −14.6% | +76.4% | −91.0 pp | −35.0% |
| 5 years | −14.2% | +63.7% | −77.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 13 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.3 bn | 27.8 bn | 17.9 bn | 22.7 bn | 23.9 bn | 29.3 bn | 19.4 bn | 24.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 10.4 bn | 13.2 bn | 7.9 bn | 10.3 bn | 11.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 8.7 bn | 11.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 12.9 bn | 14.6 bn | 10.0 bn | 12.4 bn | 12.8 bn | 15.6 bn | 10.7 bn | 13.1 bn |
| SG&A | 9.0 bn | 12.3 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.1 bn | 12.1 bn | 7.5 bn | 9.1 bn |
| Operating income | 3.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.0 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 722.0 m | 1.1 bn | 684.0 m | 807.0 m | 824.0 m | 1.1 bn | 742.0 m | 897.0 m |
| Interest expense | 219.0 m | 264.0 m | 264.0 m | 260.0 m | 264.0 m | 333.0 m | 301.0 m | 230.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 3.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Income tax | 749.0 m | 275.0 m | 499.0 m | 292.0 m | 713.0 m | 445.0 m | 632.0 m | 848.0 m |
| Net income | 2.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 2.13 | 1.11 ≈ | 1.33 | 0.92 | 1.90 | 1.85 ≈ | 1.70 | 2.18 |
| Operating cash flow | — | — | -973.0 m | 2.0 bn ≈ | — | — | 41.0 m | 2.3 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 1.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 603.0 m | 904.0 m | 992.0 m | 1.9 bn | 447.0 m | 819.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn ≈ | — | — | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 183.0 m | 311.0 m ≈ | — | — | 182.0 m | 297.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 12 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 12.6, median 25.8, max 35.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 64.7 bn | 67.2 bn | 70.4 bn | 79.5 bn | 86.4 bn | 91.5 bn | 91.9 bn | 93.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.8% | +3.9% | +4.8% | +12.9% | +8.7% | +5.9% | +0.4% | +2.3% |
| Net income | 12.5 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 8.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +157.7% | −41.6% | −2.7% | +7.0% | +17.0% | +1.8% | +5.6% | −14.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 8.78 | 5.20 | 5.12 | 5.49 | 6.42 | 6.56 | 6.95 | 6.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +159.8% | −40.8% | −1.5% | +7.2% | +16.9% | +2.2% | +5.9% | −13.7% |
| net % | 19.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | 6.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.7 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 9.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 49.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 40.0 bn USD
- Equity
- 20.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 107.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.39x
- Current ratio
- 0.85x
- ROE
- 42.6%
- ROA
- 8.0%
- FCF margin
- 8.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 70.4 bn | 79.5 bn | 86.4 bn | 91.5 bn | 91.9 bn | 93.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 31.8 bn | 37.1 bn | 40.6 bn | 41.9 bn | 41.7 bn | 43.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 38.6 bn | 42.4 bn | 45.8 bn | 49.6 bn | 50.1 bn | 50.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 719.0 m | 752.0 m | 771.0 m | 804.0 m | 813.0 m | 839.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 28.5 bn | 31.2 bn | 34.5 bn | 36.7 bn | 37.2 bn | 37.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 10.1 bn | 11.2 bn | 11.5 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.9 bn | 11.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 12.6 bn ≈ | 13.9 bn ≈ | 14.3 bn ≈ | 14.9 bn ≈ | 16.0 bn ≈ | 14.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 939.0 m | 819.0 m | 919.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 9.1 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.7 bn | 11.4 bn | 11.9 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 7.1 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.12 | 5.49 | 6.42 | 6.56 | 6.95 | 6.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.02 | 4.25 | 4.53 | 4.95 | 5.33 | 5.62 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 8.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 9.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 23.0 bn | 21.8 bn | 21.5 bn | 27.0 bn | 25.8 bn | 27.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 21.4 bn | 22.4 bn | 24.3 bn | 27.0 bn | 28.0 bn | 29.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 18.8 bn | 18.4 bn | 18.2 bn | 17.7 bn | 17.5 bn | 18.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 500.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 92.9 bn | 92.4 bn | 92.2 bn | 100.5 bn | 99.5 bn | 107.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.9 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.7 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.0 bn | 11.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 40.4 bn | 36.0 bn | 35.7 bn | 37.6 bn | 37.2 bn | 42.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 23.4 bn | 26.2 bn | 26.8 bn | 31.6 bn | 31.5 bn | 32.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 79.4 bn | 76.2 bn | 74.9 bn | 81.9 bn | 81.3 bn | 86.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 13.6 bn | 16.2 bn | 17.3 bn | 18.6 bn | 18.2 bn | 20.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 10.6 bn | 11.6 bn | 10.8 bn | 13.4 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 4.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 6.4 bn ≈ | 7.0 bn ≈ | 5.6 bn ≈ | 7.9 bn ≈ | 7.2 bn ≈ | 7.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.6 bn | -3.3 bn | -2.4 bn | -5.5 bn | -5.5 bn | -6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 3.8 bn | -10.8 bn | -8.5 bn | -3.0 bn | -7.6 bn | -5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 5.5 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.0 bn | 106.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 194.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet68
- Growth12
- Quality83
- Returns59
- Valuation84
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 73.89 – 326.29 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)97.94 – 149.93 (Mid 118.07)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 10.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 11.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA207.62 – 326.29 (Mid 314.11)5 companies used · median multiple 23.8x · quartiles 15.7x – 24.7xBF-A, BUDA, KO, PRMB, WEST
- Peers: P/E215.21 – 262.98 (Mid 250.86)5 companies used · median multiple 32.9x · quartiles 28.2x – 34.5xBF-A, BUDA, COCO, KDP, KO
- Dividend discount (DDM)73.89 – 99.36 (Mid 84.75)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 58.6% | 92 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.8% | 65 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 88.8% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.8% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 71 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 12 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.7x | 88 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.7x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.8% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.5% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 84.1% | 51 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth12/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns59/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
PEPSICO INC (PEP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-05.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 93.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.3%; net margin 10.8%; ROE 50.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 152.78–206.46 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 184.46 USD, the price of 142.42 USD leaves a potential of 29.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 22.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 58.6%
- FCF conversion: 88.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
- Interest coverage: 12.7x
- P/E (TTM): 18.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 10.7x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -2.2%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Beverages (SIC 2080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOCoca Cola Co | 412.1 bn | 28.2 | 42.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | +31% / +64% |
| DEODIAGEO plc | 237.6 bn | 92.4 | 24.0% | 9.1% | +0.3% | +7% / −30% |
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −0% / −15% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +32% / +17% |
| BF-ABrown Forman Corp | 14.9 bn | 20.3 | 18.1% | 18.4% | −1.2% | +10% / −48% |
| PRMBPrimo Brands Corp | 7.6 bn | 79.4 | 3.2% | 1.5% | +29.3% | +34% / +46% |
| COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 32.9 | 32.0% | 15.7% | +18.2% | +23% / +133% |
| WESTWestrock Coffee Company | 1.0 bn | — | — | -4.9% | +39.8% | +138% / +13% |
| BUDABuda Juice, Inc. | 83.2 m | 34.5 | 19.3% | 17.1% | +11.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SRXHSRX Global Inc. | 18.0 m | — | -70.8% | -254.8% | −81.3% | −96% / −100% |
| WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc. | 8.3 m | — | -3.3% | -5.9% | −6.5% | −37% / −68% |
| YHCLQR House Inc. | 2.9 m | 0.2 | -88.2% | -1,589.2% | −37.4% | −98% / −100% |
| IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 m | — | -2,713.2% | -2,064.0% | +20.4% | −98% / unavailable |
| EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc. | 1.2 m | — | — | -53,856.5% | −90.9% | −96% / −100% |
| BRCCBRC Inc. | 903.4 k | — | -14.2% | -1.5% | +1.7% | −23% / −77% |
| IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited | 593.4 k | — | — | -223.4% | −5.1% | −94% / unavailable |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | — | — | 23.9% | 20.9% | −10.5% | +7% / −40% |
| ABEVAmbev S.A. | — | — | 16.6% | 17.6% | −1.4% | +9% / +1% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PEP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 83.18 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 147.18 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 221.85 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 78.03 Total return -36% · Per year -14% | 155.61 Total return 22% · Per year 7% | 257.94 Total return 97% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 73.21 Total return -34% · Per year -8% | 164.53 Total return 38% · Per year 7% | 299.89 Total return 140% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 38.90
- Net margin± 27.23
- Annual revenue growth± 22.72
- Annual dilution± 2.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food group with brands such as Lay’s, Doritos, Gatorade and Pepsi-Cola. In the first three quarters of 2026 net revenue rose 6.7% to 68898 million USD, and organic growth was 2.7% 3. The company updated its 2026 guidance, now expecting organic growth of about 3% 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A broad portfolio of globally recognized brands, from snacks to beverages, which reduces dependence on a single category.
- Presence in hundreds of markets, with direct distribution networks to stores and commercial partners.
- Solid organic growth in international segments in 2026, supported by volume and favorable net pricing.
Weaknesses
- North American performance has weakened on effective net pricing, and core margins have contracted.
- Dependence on a few large retail customers creates commercial concentration.
- High marketing and operating costs may limit short-term profitability.
Opportunities
- Expansion in emerging markets and away-from-home consumption could open new growth sources.
- Products with functional benefits and less sugar could meet consumer demand for healthier options.
- Integrating North American operations and investing in technology could improve efficiency.
Threats
- Competition from economy and private label brands could limit price increases.
- Trade tariffs and volatile commodity and packaging prices can raise costs.
- Regulation of sugar taxes and plastic packaging could affect demand and costs.
Risks
- Declining demandhigh
Shifts in consumer preferences, including toward healthier products or medications that change appetite, can reduce sales if innovation falls short 1.
- Dependence on one large customerhigh
Sales to a major US retail group are a significant share of revenue, and losing this customer would have a material adverse effect on North American segments 1.
- Volatile input costsmedium
Prices of raw materials, packaging, energy and transport are volatile, and the company may not always pass increases to customers, which could reduce margins 21.
- Exposure to volatile marketsmedium
Operations in some countries, including Russia and the Middle East, are exposed to political instability, currency controls and sanctions 1.
- Tax and packaging regulationmedium
New taxes on sugar or restrictions on plastic packaging could raise costs and reduce volumes in some jurisdictions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Organic growth in international segments and a broad brand portfolio could support revenue growth over the medium term, especially if innovation investments pay off.
- If North American cost actions fund marketing and new products, profitability could return toward earlier levels.
- Experience with acquisitions and integrating new brands, including in healthier segments, could open faster-growing categories.
What would break the thesis
- Lower effective net pricing in North America and competitive pressure from Coca-Cola and economy brands could limit margin recovery.
- Dependence on a small number of large customers and exposure to tariffs and tax rules could affect results unexpectedly.
- If input costs rise faster than prices, operating margins could stay under pressure, especially amid geopolitical conflict.
What to watch
- Organic sales trend in North America and the effect of restructuring actionsQ4 2026
- Delivery of updated 2026 guidance, including organic growth and core EPS2026
- Beverage category share and any changes in relations with major customersQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
PepsiCo, Inc. was incorporated in Delaware in 1919 and produces, markets and sells beverages and convenient foods in more than 200 countries and territories 1. Its brands include Lay’s, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, Pepsi-Cola, Mountain Dew, Quaker and SodaStream 1. Activities run through company operations, authorized bottlers, contract manufacturers and other third parties 1.
Reportable segments include PepsiCo Foods North America, PepsiCo Beverages North America, International Beverages Franchise, Europe Middle East and Africa, Latin America Foods and Asia Pacific Foods 1. Performance differs by region; in the third quarter of 2026 the international segments grew strongly while North America saw weaker effective net pricing 3.
Segments
PepsiCo Beverages North America
The segment covers beverages in the United States and Canada, including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade and Aquafina, sold through company-operated bottling and distribution facilities 1. In the third quarter of 2026 beverage net revenue grew 5%, mainly from acquisitions made in 2025 3.
Market context
The company competes in highly competitive consumer categories where international, regional, private label and economy brands compete on recognition, taste and price 1. In the United States, PepsiCo and The Coca-Cola Company together hold a significant share of the liquid refreshment beverage category, with Coca-Cola as the primary beverage competitor 1.
Consumer shifts toward lower-sugar, protein and fiber products, and growth of e-commerce, are reshaping the category 1. Input costs for commodities, packaging and transport remain volatile, and tariffs can affect those costs 1.
Trends
- Growth in international salestailwind
International segments delivered strong net revenue growth in the third quarter of 2026, supported by organic volume in Asia Pacific Foods and the international beverage franchise 3. If this continues, it could offset pressure in North America.
- Pressure in North Americaheadwind
In the third quarter of 2026 effective net pricing fell in North American snacks, and the company announced restructuring actions to support brand investment 3. If these actions do not restore growth, regional margins could stay under pressure.
- Input cost inflationheadwind
The company noted that input cost inflation and Middle East conflict are disrupting supply chains and commodity prices 2. Rising costs could compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers.
- Acquisitions and portfoliomixed
Acquisitions made in 2025 contributed to beverage revenue growth and expanded the portfolio toward functional products 31. Integration could bring synergies, though outcomes depend on execution.
- Taxes on productsheadwind
Several jurisdictions have imposed or are considering new taxes and rules on sugary beverages and plastic packaging 1. These measures could raise costs or change demand in some categories.
Competitive position
The main beverage competitor is The Coca-Cola Company, which has a larger carbonated soft drink share in many markets outside the United States 1. Other competitors include Keurig Dr Pepper, Monster Beverage, Red Bull, Mondelēz and Nestlé, competing for shelf space and marketing budgets 1.
The company says its brands, innovation and distribution network allow it to compete effectively, but rivals’ progress in lower-sugar beverages is an ongoing risk 1. Competition in snacks is equally intense, with regional and private label producers 1.
- The Coca-Cola CompanyKO
Main beverage competitor, with a larger soft drink share in many markets outside the United States.
- Keurig Dr PepperKDP
Beverage competitor that also distributes some brands licensed by PepsiCo in certain North American markets.
- Mondelēz InternationalMDLZ
Competitor in the snacks and baked goods category.
- Monster BeverageMNST
Competitor in the energy drink segment, where PepsiCo also has its own brands and distribution.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- FOTO Nou produs Pepsi în România. Compania lansează Pepsi cu gust de arțar în restaurantele Burger KingProfit.ro · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Un șofer român de TIR care transporta Pepsi s-a dus cu marfa direct la Poliție, nu la depozit, când a început să miroasă ciudat din remorcăLibertatea.ro · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Pepsi renews contract with Taco Bell days after KFC switches to Coke in the U.S.CNBC World · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- KFC renunță la Pepsi și trece la Coca-Cola, după o colaborare de aproape 40 de aniLibertatea.ro · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- Американская KFC переходит на Coca-Cola спустя 40 лет сотрудничества с PepsiKommersant (RU) · 16 Oct 2026 · RU
- KFC в США переходит на напитки Coca-Cola после 40 лет партнерства с PepsiInterfax Russia (RU) · 16 Oct 2026 · RU
- Schimbare majoră la KFC. Dispare din meniu băutura preferată de mai multe decenii. Pepsi iese, vine Coca-Cola, în restaurantele din SUAProfit.ro · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- KFC renunță la Pepsi și trece la rivalul Coca-Cola / Schimbarea se produce din 2027 în restaurantele din SUAG4Media · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- Schimbare istorică la KFC, după aproape 40 de ani. Gigantul fast-food renunță la Pepsi și trece la rivalul Coca-ColaMediafax · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- Pepsi loses more ground in the soda wars, as KFC switches to CokeMarketWatch — Top Stories · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- CNN: Rusia atacă direct, cu drone și rachete, fabrici și depozite Coca-Cola, Pepsi și McDonalds din Ucraina. Administrația Trump taceAntena 3 CNN · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Pepsi shares rallied despite cutting profit guidance. Where Cramer stands on the stock nowCNBC — Top News · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Pepsi’s Fall Continues: One Prominent Firm’s Resolute Target Implies 41% Gains Moving ForwardYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Coca-Cola Stock Is Up 9,234% Since Warren Buffett’s Famous 1988 Bet. Here’s How Much He Would Have Made If He Bet On Pepsi Instead.Yahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi: Five Years, Two Completely Different OutcomesYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Pepsi has a convenience-store problem that's not Coca-ColaYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- What Happened to Pepsi? Coca-Cola Pulled Away and Never Looked BackYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Pepsi vs Coca-Cola Stock: Cramer Declares A Winner As Pepsi’s Dividend Hits 4%Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Pepsi Is Dirt Cheap With a 4.2% Dividend Yield. Here's Why Wall Street Is Favoring Coca-Cola Instead.Yahoo Finance — News · 06 Sept 2026 · EN
- Prediction: Pepsi Stock Could Surprise Wall Street in 2027Yahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report16 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 Oct 2026
- Current report17 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report09 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report09 Jul 2026
- Current report22 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report16 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report16 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / PepsiCo, Inc. · 03 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-05 · SEC / PepsiCo, Inc. · 08 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / PepsiCo, Inc. · 08 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.