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PicS N.V. PICS

Personal Credit Institutions · SIC 6141 · Vertical: Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141)

6.79USD−4.37% · 1 dayClose 02 Nov 2026

PicS N.V. is the holding company of the PicPay group, a Brazilian digital platform combining an e-wallet, instant payments, banking products and credit. The company listed on Nasdaq in January 2026, and fiscal 2025 figures show strong growth in transaction volume and customer deposits, while Brazil's financial services market is estimated to grow from R$725 billion in 2026.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 02 Nov 2026, PicS N.V. (PICS) stock was 6.79 USD (−4.37% on the day), with beta 2.52, 52-week range 6.79–19.00 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
E/P (TTM)
unavailable
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.52
Volatility (1y) 99%
52-week range
6.7919.00

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
28.1
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
6.31 – 16.86
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.05 · band width 91.1%
SMA 50 / 200
10.63 / unavailable
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.90 / -0.10
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−25.3%−2.3%−23.0 pp—
3 months−47.0%−0.8%−46.2 pp—
6 months−41.7%+4.7%−46.4 pp—
Year to dateunavailable+10.2%unavailable—
1 yearunavailable+10.3%unavailable+5.9%
3 yearsunavailable+73.0%unavailable+130.5%
5 yearsunavailable+61.8%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−64.3%
29 Jan 2026 → 02 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−64.3%
29 Jan 2026 → 02 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

unavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Valuation

unavailable

Versus the vertical median

Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 12.0x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
—
vertical median 1.1x
P/B
—
vertical median 1.6x
ROE
—
vertical median 19.3%
Net margin
—
vertical median 8.7%
EBIT margin
—
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
—
vertical median 8.4%
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CACCCredit Acceptance Corp4.9 bn15.822.7%14.4%+7.2%+5% / +6%
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.4.4 bn13.345.1%45.3%+32.2%+4% / +114%
ENVAEnova International, Inc.4.3 bn12.026.8%10.5%+18.6%+33% / +322%
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.4.1 bn8.415.9%—−19.0%+58% / +281%
HAPNHappen, Inc.1.8 bn8.713.8%—−58.5%−14% / +147%
ATLCAtlanticus Holdings Corp1.4 bn12.024.3%5.8%+50.1%+58% / +202%
WRLDWorld Acceptance Corp771.4 m19.99.9%6.6%+3.7%+7% / +48%
RMRegional Management Corp.350.8 m7.912.6%7.0%+9.7%+3% / +77%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PICS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (10 Aug 2026), 6-K (03 Aug 2026), 6-K (23 Jul 2026), 6-K (23 Jun 2026), 6-K (03 Jun 2026).

In brief

PicS N.V. is the holding company of the PicPay group, a Brazilian digital platform combining an e-wallet, instant payments, banking products and credit. The company listed on Nasdaq in January 2026, and fiscal 2025 figures show strong growth in transaction volume and customer deposits, while Brazil's financial services market is estimated to grow from R$725 billion in 2026 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The proprietary transaction data ecosystem and a large base of active customers support credit models more accurate than the market model 1.
  • Customer costs are markedly lower than at traditional banks, and reported profitability is above the sector average 1.
  • A largely fee-based, asset-light wallet model limits exposure to credit risk 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on Visa and Mastercard networks and compliance with their rules could lead to fines or loss of access 1.
  • Credit card revenue is sensitive to regulatory changes and to challenges from incumbent institutions 1.
  • The company has in the past failed to meet minimum regulatory capital requirements, which required capital contributions 1.

Opportunities

  • Low penetration of higher-margin products such as cards and loans leaves room for cross-selling 1.
  • The fixed-odds betting market and insurance through Kovr could diversify revenue if integration succeeds 1.
  • A second FIDC financing vehicle for FGTS loans could support growth of the credit portfolio 1.

Threats

  • Interventions and liquidations of financial institutions in Brazil could increase regulatory scrutiny and reduce market confidence 1.
  • Changes to the assignment of card receivables could impose additional obligations on the company 1.
  • Political instability, inflation and exchange rate swings could affect the Brazilian economy and capital market 1.

Risks

  • Card payment regulationhigh

    Regulatory changes on interest-free installments and card interest rates could reduce revenue 1.

  • Card-funded wallet practiceshigh

    Brazilian authorities are investigating the practice, and if it were deemed incompatible with the legal framework, products would have to change 1.

  • Capital and banking regulationmedium

    The company has previously struggled with minimum capital requirements, and recent capital injections and deposit insurance contributions could require further resources 1.

  • Security and IT risksmedium

    System failures or cyberattacks could interrupt services and damage reputation 1.

  • Foreign private issuer and controlled company statuslow

    Foreign private issuer and controlled company status may limit shareholder protections, and losing foreign private issuer status would add costs 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The ecosystem of data and high transaction volume could support revenue growth from credit if the models hold up in practice 1.
  • The estimated addressable market for 2030 could leave room for sustained growth if product penetration rises 1.
  • Diversification into insurance and betting could add new revenue sources if integrations succeed 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Dependence on credit cards and their regulation could limit revenue if rules change against the company 1.
  • Competition from Pix and traditional banks could reduce market share and margins 1.
  • The track record on capital requirements and the need for capital contributions could demand further resources 1.

What to watch

  • Development of wallet TPV and credit card penetration2026
  • Decision on proposed rules on interest-free installments and card interest rates2026
  • Completion of the Kovr acquisition and CADE and SUSEP approvals2026
  • Launch of the second FIDC for FGTS loansQ2 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (10 Aug 2026), 6-K (03 Aug 2026), 6-K (23 Jul 2026), 6-K (23 Jun 2026), 6-K (03 Jun 2026).

The business

PicPay was founded in 2012 in Vitória as a P2P transfer platform and has grown into a financial ecosystem with a digital wallet, banking account through PicPay Bank, credit cards and personal loans 1. The wallet model is largely fee-based and asset-light, with the company taking credit risk only on transactions sourced by its own card, after taking over the Banco Original card portfolio in January 2024 1. The company also operates through an investment brokerage, an insurance acquisition in progress and a sports betting operator licensed in March 2026 1.

Monetization comes from fees on credit card transactions, which can range from 3.49% to 5.49% of the transaction amount, and installment fees of 3.99% to 5.49% per month 1. P2P and Pix transactions funded from wallet balances are free, so revenue depends on credit card use and credit products 1. The company says ARPAC of mature cohorts is twice the platform average and penetration of higher-margin products remains low 1.

In February 2026 PicPay Bank received a R$1.5 billion capital injection to support growth and meet regulatory requirements, and in November 2025 the bank issued Tier 2 subordinated debt with a nominal amount of R$501.6 million 1. The company also agreed to acquire Kovr, a digital insurance group, subject to CADE and SUSEP approval 1.

Segments

Wallet and Banking

The wallet and banking segment includes P2P and Pix instant payments, bill payments and other products, with total TPV of R$497.0 billion in fiscal 2025 and instant payments at 89% of the total 1. The PicPay-branded credit card accounted for 33.7% of credit card TPV captured in the wallet 1.

Credit and financial products

Since October 2023 the company originates credit directly on its balance sheet, focusing on credit cards and personal loans, and since 2024 it offers secured cards where the customer builds the limit 1. The company says its credit models built on proprietary data can reach up to 3.0 times more accuracy than the market model 1.

Insurance and betting

The Kovr acquisition and the fixed-odds betting licence held by Nosso Time iGaming extend the product range beyond payments and credit, though both are at an early stage relative to the core business 1.

Market context

The company estimates the total addressable market for Brazilian financial services could grow from R$725 billion in 2026 to R$1,078 billion in 2030, driven by digitalization and demand for accessible solutions 1. Scalable digital banks, it argues, operate with customer cost structures up to ten times lower than incumbents 1.

The payments market is dominated by Visa and Mastercard card networks, Pix and traditional banks, the latter of which challenge the wallet's card-funding model 1. The regulatory environment is also shifting, especially for FGTS-backed loans and interest-free installment payments 1.

Trends

  • Digital bank scalabilitytailwind

    The scalability of digital banks and their lower cost per customer could support margin growth if the product ecosystem expands 1.

  • Pix expansionmixed

    Pix has increased instant payment use and reduced the use of other methods, including cards, which may lower card fee revenue 1.

  • Credit regulationheadwind

    Proposed rules on interest-free installments and card interest rates could reduce revenue if adopted 1.

  • Artificial intelligencemixed

    Growing use of artificial intelligence brings efficiency and scale but also operational and security risks that could affect the company 1.

Competitive position

The company is compared with traditional banks such as Itaú, Bradesco, Santander and Banco do Brasil, and with digital banks such as Nubank and Inter&Co, which the source cites as reference points 1. Competition also intensifies from Pix, which may reduce dependence on credit cards 1.

  • Nu HoldingsNU

    Digital bank Nubank, cited by the company as a reference for scalable digital banking in Brazil 1.

  • Inter&CoINTR

    Digital bank cited in the comparison of cost and profitability of digital banks in Brazil 1.

  • Itaú Unibanco

    Traditional bank cited as a reference for sector costs and profitability in Brazil 1.

  • Banco do Brasil

    Traditional bank cited in the cost and profitability comparison, relevant to the credit segment 1.

News & filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / PicS N.V. · 30 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

PicS N.V. (PICS): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw