olivLaw · US equity research
Peloton Interactive, Inc. PTON
Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC · SIC 3949 · Vertical: Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC (SIC 3949)
Peloton is a global fitness and wellness company that sells connected equipment and subscriptions for live and on-demand content. Fiscal 2026 brought its first full year of net profit in the company's history, but guidance for 2027 points to lower revenue, which makes the period important for judging the business model.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) stock was 5.46 USD (+2.82% on the day), with P/E 39.0 on diluted EPS of 0.14 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.81, 52-week range 3.71–7.66 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 607.7 m USD (+0.1% YoY), net income of 61.6 m USD (+185.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.14 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.99 – 5.52
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 10.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.12 / 5.22
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.06 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.0% | −1.1% | +10.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −16.3% | −0.5% | −15.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.0% | +4.4% | +0.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −11.4% | +12.3% | −23.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −22.8% | +13.5% | −36.3 pp | +16.5% |
| 3 years | +4.8% | +76.4% | −71.6 pp | −6.8% |
| 5 years | −90.2% | +63.7% | −153.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 586.0 m | 673.9 m | 624.0 m | 606.9 m | 550.8 m | 656.5 m | 630.9 m | 607.7 m |
| Cost of revenue | 282.2 m | 355.6 m | 306.0 m | 278.8 m | 267.1 m | 325.2 m | 303.7 m | 263.4 m |
| Gross profit | 303.8 m | 318.4 m | 318.1 m | 328.1 m | 283.7 m | 331.3 m | 327.3 m | 344.4 m |
| Research & development | 58.5 m | 60.3 m | 59.6 m | 55.8 m | 62.1 m | 65.0 m | 58.8 m | 56.9 m |
| Operating income | 12.5 m | -45.9 m | -32.4 m | 29.6 m | 41.3 m | -14.3 m | 52.5 m | 81.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 24.8 m | 22.8 m ≈ | 21.2 m ≈ | 20.9 m | 16.8 m | 15.3 m ≈ | 13.6 m ≈ | 11.5 m |
| Interest expense | 35.4 m | 34.6 m | 32.6 m | 31.9 m | 32.3 m | 31.5 m | 30.0 m | 30.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 0 | -91.2 m | -46.9 m | 22.6 m | 14.6 m | -39.0 m | 26.9 m | 60.6 m |
| Income tax | 800.0 k | 700.0 k | 800.0 k | 1.1 m | 700.0 k | -200.0 k | 400.0 k | -1.0 m |
| Net income | -900.0 k | -92.0 m | -47.7 m | 21.6 m | 13.9 m | -38.8 m | 26.4 m | 61.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | -0.24 | -0.12 | 0.05 ≈ | 0.03 | -0.09 | 0.06 | 0.14 ≈ |
| Operating cash flow | 12.5 m | 106.7 m ≈ | 96.7 m ≈ | 117.1 m | 71.9 m | 71.9 m ≈ | 152.7 m ≈ | 91.1 m |
| Capex | 1.8 m | 700.0 k ≈ | 2.1 m ≈ | 4.7 m | 4.5 m | 900.0 k ≈ | 2.2 m ≈ | 2.3 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 5-quarter history (min 42.7, median 181.4, max 1,417.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 915.0 m | 1.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +110.3% | +99.6% | +120.3% | −10.9% | −21.8% | −3.6% | −7.8% | −1.8% |
| Net income | -195.6 m | -71.6 m | -189.0 m | -2.8 bn | -1.3 bn | -551.9 m | -118.9 m | 63.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -10.72 | -0.32 | -0.64 | -8.77 | -3.64 | -1.51 | -0.30 | 0.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -21.4% | -3.9% | -4.7% | -78.9% | -45.1% | -20.4% | -4.8% | 2.6% |
| Free cash flow | -191.6 m | 223.4 m | -480.7 m | -2.4 bn | -470.0 m | -85.8 m | 323.7 m | 377.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 133.4 m USD
- Equity
- -139.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.84x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 3.0%
- FCF margin
- 15.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.5 bn | 698.4 m | 923.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 247.6 m | 359.5 m | 318.4 m | 304.8 m | 234.2 m | 242.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | -187.8 m | -2.7 bn | -1.2 bn | -529.0 m | -36.2 m | 160.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 63.8 m | 142.8 m | 124.3 m | 108.8 m | 89.7 m | 57.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -124.0 m ≈ | -2.6 bn ≈ | -1.1 bn ≈ | -420.2 m ≈ | 53.5 m ≈ | 217.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 14.8 m | 43.0 m | 97.1 m | 112.5 m | 134.5 m | 123.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -198.2 m | -2.8 bn | -1.3 bn | -552.1 m | -115.6 m | 63.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | -9.2 m | 19.6 m | 3.7 m | -200.0 k | 3.4 m | -100.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | -189.0 m | -2.8 bn | -1.3 bn | -551.9 m | -118.9 m | 63.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.64 | -8.77 | -3.64 | -1.51 | -0.30 | 0.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 293.9 m | 322.4 m | 346.7 m | 365.5 m | 390.0 m | 436.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 813.9 m | 697.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 71.4 m | 83.6 m | 97.2 m | 103.6 m | 101.2 m | 82.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 937.1 m | 1.1 bn | 522.6 m | 329.7 m | 205.6 m | 135.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 591.9 m | 610.9 m | 444.8 m | 353.7 m | 239.0 m | 164.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 210.1 m | 41.2 m | 41.2 m | 41.2 m | 41.2 m | 44.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 247.9 m | 41.3 m | 25.6 m | 15.0 m | 5.6 m | 11.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 364.4 m | 93.0 m | 76.5 m | 85.4 m | 66.7 m | 53.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 7.5 m | 7.5 m | 10.0 m | 208.5 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 761.4 m | 685.2 m | 803.9 m | 525.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.8 bn † | 592.9 m † | -295.1 m † | -519.1 m † | -413.8 m † | -139.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -239.7 m | -2.0 bn | -387.6 m | -66.1 m | 333.0 m | 387.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 241.0 m | 337.3 m | 82.4 m | 19.7 m | 9.3 m | 9.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -480.7 m ≈ | -2.4 bn ≈ | -470.0 m ≈ | -85.8 m ≈ | 323.7 m ≈ | 377.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -585.1 m | 153.3 m | -69.9 m | 26.8 m | -5.1 m | -21.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 916.8 m | 2.0 bn | 76.8 m | -94.4 m | 1.7 m | -207.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.32 – 3.10 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E2.32 – 3.10 (Mid 2.95)3 companies used · median multiple 21.1x · quartiles 16.6x – 22.2xESCA, GOLF, YETI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.6% | 73 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 597.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 20 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 39.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. (PTON). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.8%; net margin 2.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 2.32–3.10 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.95 USD, the price of 5.46 USD leaves a potential of -46.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -85.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 2.6%
- FCF conversion: 597.6%
- Current ratio: 2.8x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- Interest coverage: 1.3x
- P/E (TTM): 39.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC (SIC 3949) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp. | 4.9 bn | 23.3 | 25.7% | 8.2% | +4.1% | +2% / +52% |
| YETIYETI Holdings, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 21.1 | 25.3% | 9.2% | unavailable | +17% / +13% |
| CALYCallaway Golf Company | 3.0 bn | — | -11.3% | -12.4% | −0.8% | +29% / +35% |
| ESCAEscalade, Incorporated | 290.7 m | 12.1 | 13.5% | 10.0% | −4.5% | +59% / +14% |
| AOUTAmerican Outdoor Brands, Inc. | 226.2 m | — | -2.4% | -2.0% | −14.3% | +150% / +109% |
| CLARClarus Corporation | 169.2 m | — | -14.9% | -12.4% | −5.2% | +23% / −22% |
| KBSXFST Corp. | 62.2 m | — | -7.8% | -3.1% | +31.4% | −1% / −87% |
| GMEXGmex Robotics Corporation | 10.7 m | — | -91.5% | -308.0% | +7.9% | −100% / −100% |
| NWTGNewton Golf Company, Inc. | 4.9 m | — | -2,023.2% | -124.4% | +136.1% | −45% / −100% |
| TRUGTrugolf Holdings, Inc. | 586.0 k | — | -349.3% | -55.7% | −13.6% | −100% / −100% |
| JOUTJohnson Outdoors Inc. | — | — | -1.8% | -1.2% | −0.1% | +19% / −7% |
| PTONPeloton Interactive, Inc. | — | 39.0 | — | 2.6% | −1.8% | −23% / +5% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PTON from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Peloton is a global fitness and wellness company that sells connected equipment and subscriptions for live and on-demand content. Fiscal 2026 brought its first full year of net profit in the company's history, but guidance for 2027 points to lower revenue, which makes the period important for judging the business model 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- A globally recognised brand and a loyal Member base, with recurring revenue from subscriptions 1. Subscription gross margin is high and has risen in recent years 1.
- A portfolio of patents and registered trademarks protects proprietary technology and content, and in-house studios produce original content that is hard to copy 1.
- The company reached its first full year of net profit and positive free cash flow, giving it financial flexibility 2.
Weaknesses
- The number of paid connected subscriptions has fallen in recent years, and churn rose in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 12.
- Hardware margins are thin and sensitive to inventory, discounts and recall costs 12.
- The company had significant operating losses in the past and has not yet shown a stable profit over the long term 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion into the commercial fitness market and the Commercial Business Unit could diversify revenue if adoption grows 12.
- Microstores and owned retail channels have beaten internal sales targets, and a plan to expand the fleet could support sales 2.
- Digital partnerships and expansion into wellness, recovery and Pilates could attract new categories of Members 12.
Threats
Risks
- Decline in subscriptionshigh
If the number of paying Members keeps falling, recurring revenue and profitability could be affected 12.
- Lower revenue guidancehigh
Guidance for fiscal 2027 points to lower revenue than the prior year, which could slow the company's recovery 2.
- Product recallmedium
Additional costs linked to the recall of the Original Series Bike+ could be significant if the number of incidents rises 1.
- Tariffs and supply chainmedium
New tariffs and legislative changes could raise costs and complicate inventory management 1.
- Patent litigationmedium
The company recorded a non-recurring legal accrual linked to patent litigation, and further proceedings could add costs 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If cost discipline and cash generation hold, the company could invest in products and the Commercial Business Unit without relying on external financing 2.
- Rising subscription gross margin and a global Member base could support recurring revenue over the long term 1.
- If wellness and Pilates expansion attracts new Members, the company could reduce its reliance on hardware sales 12.
What would break the thesis
- A continued fall in subscriptions and rising churn could reduce recurring revenue, which is the base of the business model 12.
- Guidance for 2027 points to lower revenue, and a return to growth could be slower than the market expects 2.
- Competition and price pressure could reduce hardware margins, which are already thin 1.
What to watch
- Number of paid connected subscriptions and average monthly churnQ1 2027
- Delivery of fiscal 2027 revenue and gross margin guidance2027
- Performance of the Commercial Business Unit and microstore expansionnext 10-K
- Impact of tariffs and IEEPA refunds on costsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Peloton describes its model as an integration of premium hardware, proprietary software, instructors and content, with revenue generated mainly from recurring subscriptions and the sale of connected products 1. The company has about 5.5 million Members as of June 30, 2026 and serves commercial customers in over 60 countries through its Commercial Business Unit, which includes the Precor brand 1. Total revenue for fiscal 2026 was 2.446 billion USD 2.
Segments
Subscriptions
Connected Fitness and Peloton app subscriptions are the segment with the highest margin, and subscription gross margin rose to 71.4% in fiscal 2026 1. The number of paid connected subscriptions fell to 2.553 million at the end of fiscal 2026 1.
Connected Fitness Products and Precor
This covers Peloton bikes, treadmills and rowers from the Cross Training and Pro series, as well as commercial Precor equipment. It carries lower margins than subscriptions and was affected by the voluntary recall of the Original Series Bike+ announced in November 2025 12.
Market context
The at-home connected fitness market is contested, with low barriers to entry and competition from equipment makers, wellness apps, studio classes and gyms 1. Growth after the pandemic has slowed, and demand for hardware is sensitive to economic conditions and shifts in consumer preferences 1.
The commercial fitness market is a new segment the company is pursuing through the integration of Precor and Peloton for Business, but adoption at the expected scale is not assured 1. Tariffs and trade policy remain an important cost and risk factor for the supply chain 1.
Trends
- Cost reduction and return to profittailwind
The 2025 restructuring reduced costs, and the company exceeded its plan of more than 100 million USD in run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2026 2. If cost discipline holds, profitability could support product investment 2.
- Decline in paid subscriptionsheadwind
The number of paid connected subscriptions keeps falling year on year, and guidance for the first quarter of 2027 expects a further reduction 2. If churn stays high, recurring revenue could be affected 12.
- Tariffs and trade rulesmixed
The February 2026 Supreme Court decision invalidated IEEPA tariffs and the company filed refund claims, but new Section 301 tariffs could affect production costs 1. The final effect depends on implementation and scope 1.
- Expansion into wellness and contenttailwind
The company launched Peloton IQ, strength programs and Breathwrk, and acquired Skōp for connected Pilates, while the Spotify partnership extends digital reach 12. Wellness expansion could support Member retention if the products are well received 1.
Competitive position
Peloton names at-home fitness equipment, health and wellness apps, in-studio classes and fitness clubs as its main sources of competition 1. The company argues that its combination of equipment, software, human coaching and community gives it an advantage over traditional products 1.
Competition is intense, with limited barriers to entry, and rivals can launch similar alternatives faster or more cheaply 1. Pressure on prices and margins could increase if other players expand connected offerings 1.
- At-home fitness equipment makers
Companies selling connected bikes, treadmills and rowers for home use, named as direct competition in the hardware category 1.
- Health and wellness apps
Digital platforms for training, meditation and breathing that compete for users' attention and subscriptions 1.
- In-studio group fitness studios
Studios and clubs with group classes that offer an alternative to home workouts 1.
- Fitness clubs and gyms
Gym operators that attract commercial and retail customers and compete indirectly for Peloton subscriptions 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Shake Shack, Wendy's, Peloton, Unity Software & moreCNBC — Top News · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Peloton Removes Varosha Halloween Ride After HALC ProtestGreek Reporter (GR, EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Peloton Holds Talks for Potential $800 Million Debut Bond DealBloomberg Markets · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Peloton (PTON) Stock a Buy After Its Massive Hardware Overhaul?Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Peloton is back with a ‘cheaper’ folding treadmillThe Verge · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Peloton is revamping its treadmills with new features in the next phase of its turnaroundCNBC — Top News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Morgan Stanley Just Downgraded Peloton Stock. Here's Why.Yahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Peloton Interactive, Roivant Sciences, Boston Scientific & moreCNBC — Top News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Peloton's Former Interim CEO Just Sold 25,000 Shares. Here's What Long-Term Investors Should KnowYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- A Peloton Insider Parted With 36,000 Shares. Here's What Long-Term Investors Should KnowYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Peloton Slides on Subscription Lag; Six Flags Falls on Revenue Miss | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 06 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Proxy statement23 Oct 2026
- Current report13 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Annual report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report05 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Peloton Interactive, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Peloton Interactive, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.