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olivLaw · US equity research

Ryder System, Inc. R

Services-Auto Rental & Leasing (No Drivers) · SIC 7510 · Vertical: Services-Auto Rental & Leasing (No Drivers) (SIC 7510)

283.12USD+0.49% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ryder System is a North American provider of outsourced logistics and transportation services, operating through three segments: fleet, supply chain and dedicated transportation. It matters now because outsourcing of logistics and fleets remains a structural trend, and its total revenue reached about 12.7 billion USD in fiscal 2025. Third-quarter 2026 results and the raised outlook point to a gradual recovery in freight markets.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ryder System, Inc. (R) stock was 283.12 USD (+0.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.8 bn USD, P/E 21.6 on diluted EPS of 13.10 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.32%, beta 1.11, 52-week range 162.50–285.58 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.4 bn USD (+8.3% YoY), net income of 162.0 m USD (+17.4% YoY), diluted EPS 4.15 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
10.8 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.6
Diluted EPS TTM 13.10 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.63%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.32%
DPS 12m 3.74
Beta (2y)
1.11
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
162.50285.58

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.8
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
216.83 – 299.98
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.80 · band width 32.2%
SMA 50 / 200
247.22 / 239.03
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
11.94 / 8.93
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+20.0%−1.1%+21.1 pp—
3 months+6.6%−0.5%+7.1 pp—
6 months+17.2%+4.4%+12.8 pp—
Year to date+47.9%+12.3%+35.6 pp—
1 year+69.2%+13.5%+55.6 pp−11.8%
3 years+180.9%+76.4%+104.5 pp−34.5%
5 years+225.1%+63.7%+161.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−18.7%
11 Jun 2026 → 30 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−28.4%
12 Nov 2021 → 11 Apr 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+26.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.4 bn USD
+8.3% YoY
Net income
162.0 m USD
+17.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
4.15
+25.0% YoY
net / operating
4.7% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue3.2 bn3.1 bn3.2 bn3.2 bn3.2 bn3.1 bn3.3 bn3.4 bn
SG&A365.0 m368.0 m378.0 m380.0 m347.0 m380.0 m390.0 m375.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation576.0 m560.0 m555.0 m555.0 m570.0 m561.0 m556.0 m557.0 m
Interest expense100.0 m100.0 m102.0 m102.0 m100.0 m97.0 m97.0 m96.0 m
Pre-tax income181.0 m134.0 m184.0 m190.0 m177.0 m118.0 m185.0 m226.0 m
Income tax46.0 m36.0 m52.0 m51.0 m44.0 m25.0 m52.0 m64.0 m
Net income135.0 m98.0 m131.0 m138.0 m132.0 m93.0 m133.0 m162.0 m
Diluted EPS3.11 ≈2.273.133.323.23 ≈2.333.394.15
Operating cash flow558.0 m651.0 m752.0 m ≈442.0 m ≈749.0 m583.0 m677.0 m ≈725.0 m ≈
Capex761.0 m514.0 m689.0 m527.0 m405.0 m427.0 m405.0 m ≈543.0 m ≈
Dividends paid34.0 m38.0 m33.0 m ≈37.0 m ≈37.0 m39.0 m35.0 m ≈39.0 m ≈
Share repurchases39.0 m167.0 m94.0 m ≈89.0 m ≈169.0 m233.0 m99.0 m ≈40.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 94 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 4.6, median 12.6, max 107.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue8.4 bn8.9 bn8.4 bn9.7 bn12.0 bn11.8 bn12.6 bn12.7 bn
Revenue YoY+15.6%+6.1%−5.7%+14.8%+24.3%−1.9%+7.2%+0.2%
Net income284.6 m-24.4 m-122.0 m519.0 m867.0 m406.0 m489.0 m499.0 m
Net income YoY−60.5%−108.6%unavailableunavailable+67.1%−53.2%+20.4%+2.0%
Diluted EPS5.38-0.47-2.349.6617.048.7311.0611.94
Diluted EPS YoY−60.2%−108.7%unavailableunavailable+76.4%−48.8%+26.7%+8.0%
net %3.4%-0.3%-1.4%5.4%7.2%3.4%3.9%3.9%
Free cash flow-1.3 bn-1.6 bn1.0 bn234.0 m-321.0 m-881.0 m-418.0 m459.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
198.0 m USD
Financial debt
819.0 m USD
Net debt
621.0 m USD
Equity
3.1 bn USD
Total assets
16.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.27x
Current ratio
0.89x
ROE
16.2%
ROA
3.0%
FCF margin
3.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
11.8 bn
2024
12.6 bn
2025
12.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
296.0 m
2024
386.0 m
2025
404.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
618.0 m
2024
661.0 m
2025
685.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
212.0 m
2024
172.0 m
2025
184.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
406.0 m
2024
489.0 m
2025
499.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
8.73
2024
11.06
2025
11.94

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
46.5 m
2024
44.2 m
2025
41.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.66
2024
3.04
2025
3.44

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
204.0 m
2024
154.0 m
2025
198.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified

Current assets
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Apr 2023verified

Goodwill
2023
940.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
396.0 m
2024
457.0 m
2025
412.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
15.8 bn
2024
16.7 bn
2025
16.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
833.0 m
2024
828.0 m
2025
689.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
819.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
7.1 bn
2024
7.8 bn
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
12.7 bn
2024
13.6 bn
2025
13.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.1 bn †
2024
3.1 bn †
2025
3.1 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
3.2 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-881.0 m ≈
2024
-418.0 m ≈
2025
459.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-2.7 bn
2024
-2.4 bn
2025
-1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
256.0 m
2024
153.0 m
2025
-912.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
128.0 m
2024
135.0 m
2025
145.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
337.0 m
2024
321.0 m
2025
519.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-16.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
8.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
28.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
15.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
954.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
183.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
10.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
12.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
20.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
11.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
8.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

283.12 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 10.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
10.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2463derived 147

Score by group

  • Valuation66
  • Returns95
  • Quality100
  • Balance sheet0
  • Growth7

Estimated value range

Low
221.07
USD per share
Mid
273.05
USD per share
High
357.29
USD per share
Price: 283.12 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -3.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -3.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 45.21 – 653.78 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)396.94 – 653.78 (Mid 494.24)
    WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 1.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -18.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)45.21 – 60.79 (Mid 51.85)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Auto Rental & Leasing (No Drivers) (SIC 7510)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality4.0%100 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality183.5%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth1.8%15 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-11.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation21.6x38 (on a fixed band)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation8.8%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns6.4%91 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns15.7%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth7/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns95/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

RYDER SYSTEM INC (R). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.2%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 17.1%.

The estimated value range is 221.07–357.29 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 273.05 USD, the price of 283.12 USD leaves a potential of -3.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 4.0%
  • FCF conversion: 183.5%
  • FCF yield: 8.8%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.4%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 15.7%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -11.2%
  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Services-Auto Rental & Leasing (No Drivers) (SIC 7510) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
21.6x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 0.4x
above median (+127.2%)
P/B
3.6x
vertical median —
ROE
17.1%
vertical median —
Net margin
4.0%
vertical median -7.3%
above median
EBIT margin
—
vertical median -72.7%
Revenue YoY
0.2%
vertical median -1.2%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.3%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
RRyder System Inc10.8 bn21.617.1%4.0%+0.2%+69% / +181%
CARAvis Budget Group, Inc.4.2 bn——-7.0%−1.2%−12% / −34%
UHALU-Haul Holding Company1.2 bn7.12.2%2.7%+3.6%+15% / +7%
HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc713.6 m——-7.3%−6.0%−57% / −73%
MRTMarti Technologies, Inc.174.7 m——-105.6%+110.3%−16% / +211%
VAIValor Energy Inc.26.6 m——-340.9%−18.5%+41% / −43%

1- and 3-year price returns: for R from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
169.02
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
299.21
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
451.24
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
155.20
Total return -42% · Per year -17%
309.97
Total return 14% · Per year 4%
514.53
Total return 87% · Per year 23%
5 years
142.51
Total return -45% · Per year -11%
321.13
Total return 21% · Per year 4%
586.70
Total return 117% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 77.49
  • Net margin± 54.25
  • Annual revenue growth± 45.72
  • Annual dilution± 4.56

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Ryder System is a North American provider of outsourced logistics and transportation services, operating through three segments: fleet, supply chain and dedicated transportation. It matters now because outsourcing of logistics and fleets remains a structural trend, and its total revenue reached about 12.7 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. Third-quarter 2026 results and the raised outlook point to a gradual recovery in freight markets 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The model based on long-term contracts provides predictable revenue, and the company reports steady growth in earnings per share 13.
  • An extensive network of maintenance facilities and fuel points supports its integrated leasing and maintenance offers 1.
  • Port-to-door solutions cover the whole North American supply chain, which differentiates the offer from partial service providers 1.

Weaknesses

  • Total debt is high relative to shareholders' equity, and financing costs have risen in recent years 12.
  • Revenue from used vehicle sales and rentals is sensitive to the economic cycle and was weak in 2025 1.
  • The DTS segment lost business and had a smaller fleet, which reduced operating revenue 23.

Opportunities

  • Rising demand for transport capacity and a recovering freight market could accelerate contractual activity in FMS and DTS 23.
  • Outsourcing of privately owned fleets remains a potential source of new contracts, given the large number of privately owned vehicles 1.
  • Investment in the rental fleet could capture higher expected rental demand in 2027 3.

Threats

  • An economic slowdown could reduce demand for transport, rental and used vehicle sales 1.
  • Tariffs, trade policy changes and geopolitical instability could disrupt supply chains and customer demand 12.
  • Competition from fleet financiers and from customers who manage their own logistics could limit growth 1.

Risks

  • Demand sensitive to the economic cyclehigh

    Demand for transport, rental and used vehicle sales depends on customers' economic activity, and a slowdown could affect results 1.

  • Residual value riskhigh

    Residual value estimates for the fleet may differ from actual used vehicle prices, which could lead to losses or higher depreciation 1.

  • Rental capacity riskmedium

    Rental fleet investments are made ahead of demand, so overcapacity could force vehicle sales at lower prices 1.

  • Global supply chain disruptionsmedium

    Disruptions in global supply chains can affect vehicle availability and customer volumes in SCS and DTS 1.

  • Cybersecurity and IT systemsmedium

    Cybersecurity incidents or IT system failures could disrupt operations and financial reporting 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Contractual growth in FMS and SCS, supported by strategic initiatives, could strengthen the earnings per share the company reports quarter after quarter 3.
  • A recovery in the freight market and in used vehicle prices could add further revenue growth in FMS and DTS 23.
  • The trend toward outsourcing fleets and logistics remains a structural factor favourable over the long term 1.

What would break the thesis

  • An economic slowdown could quickly reduce demand for rental and used vehicle sales, where results are volatile 1.
  • High debt and higher financing costs could limit the company's flexibility during periods of pressure 12.
  • If the freight market recovery is delayed, contractual growth in DTS could remain weak 23.

What to watch

  • Operating revenue growth in FMS and SCS against the 3% full-year outlookQ4 2026
  • Delivery of the 2026 comparable EPS outlook2026
  • Used vehicle prices and utilization of the rental fleetQ1 2027
  • Level of fleet investment and trend in free cash flownext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Ryder offers port-to-door solutions for the North American supply chain, from international inbound flows and cross-border logistics to warehousing, transport and final delivery 1. Its business is reported in three segments: Fleet Management Solutions, which includes full service leasing, commercial rental and maintenance; Supply Chain Solutions, with integrated logistics solutions; and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, with dedicated vehicles and professional drivers 1. Its model relies on long-term contracts, so a significant part of revenue is predictable, while used vehicle sales and rentals remain sensitive to the economic cycle 1.

Segments

Fleet Management Solutions (FMS)

The FMS segment accounted for 38% of consolidated revenue in 2025 and includes ChoiceLease leasing, which generated 60% of segment revenue, along with commercial rental and SelectCare maintenance services 1. In Q3 2026 its total revenue grew 10%, and EBT reached 177 million USD, equal to a 13.2% margin on operating revenue 3.

Supply Chain Solutions (SCS)

SCS accounted for 43% of consolidated revenue in 2025 and offers distribution, dedicated transportation, transportation management, e-commerce and last-mile delivery, and contract manufacturing 1. In Q3 2026 its revenue grew 9%, driven by new business and the optimization of its omnichannel retail network 3.

Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS)

DTS provides dedicated vehicles and professional drivers, while some of its services to SCS customers are reported within the SCS segment 1. In Q3 2026 its total revenue rose 6%, but operating revenue fell slightly because of a lower fleet count 3.

Market context

The US commercial fleet market includes about 11 million vehicles, a large share of which is still privately owned, which represents the outsourcing opportunity 1. The US logistics market in Ryder's target markets was estimated at about 1.5 trillion USD, of which 234 billion USD was outsourced at the time of the source 1. The used vehicle market was weak in 2025, but prices and retail volumes improved by Q3 2026 13.

Trends

  • Outsourcing of logistics and fleetstailwind

    Companies face rising complexity in fleet management, emissions regulation and labour shortages, which supports demand for outsourced services 1. This trend could support long-term contractual growth if cost pressures persist.

  • Recovery of the freight markettailwind

    The company said contractual activity accelerated in FMS and DTS as the freight market normalizes 23. If the recovery continues, demand for capacity could support revenue in the coming quarters.

  • Used vehicle pricesmixed

    Used vehicle sales were weak in 2025, but retail prices and volumes rose in Q3 2026 13. Price trends remain volatile, and residual value estimates can differ from actual sale prices 1.

  • Cost and interest rate pressureheadwind

    Cost inflation, regulatory changes, tariffs and the high interest rate environment could weigh on demand and results, according to the company 12. Maintenance and insurance costs rose in Q3 2026 2.

Competitive position

Ryder competes with finance lessors, truck and trailer manufacturers, independent dealers and managed maintenance providers 1. In logistics, competition also comes from customers who choose to run their own supply chain services 1. The competitors are not named in the provided sources.

  • Finance lessors

    Compete with FMS through fleet financing offers, according to the sources.

  • Truck and trailer manufacturers

    Can offer maintenance and financing directly to customers who buy vehicles.

  • Independent dealers

    Compete on price, geographic coverage and maintenance service quality.

  • Managed maintenance providers

    Coordinate maintenance for large fleets through a network of independent providers.

News & filings

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ryder System, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Ryder System, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ryder System, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.