olivLaw · US equity research
Republic Airways Holdings Inc. RJET
Air Transportation, Scheduled · SIC 4512 · Vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)
Republic Airways is the second largest independent regional airline in the United States, operating almost entirely under capacity purchase agreements with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. After the November 2025 merger with Mesa Air Group it has grown its fleet and output substantially, reporting revenue of $571.1 million in the second quarter of 2026 and a total fleet of 314 aircraft.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) stock was 20.50 USD (+7.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 958.4 m USD, P/E 9.6 on diluted EPS of 2.13 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.24, 52-week range 15.76–25.35 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 553.5 m USD (+34.3% YoY), net income of 34.6 m USD (+416.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.75 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 14.77 – 20.40
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 32.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 17.76 / 18.85
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.57 / 0.17
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +20.2% | −1.1% | +21.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.2% | −0.5% | −4.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.2% | +4.4% | −3.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.6% | +12.3% | −0.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +3.5% | +13.5% | −10.0 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | +113.5% | +76.4% | +37.1 pp | +57.5% |
| 5 years | −84.3% | +63.7% | −148.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 103.2 m | 394.8 m | 405.6 m | 412.0 m | 464.1 m | 527.4 m | 571.1 m | 553.5 m |
| Operating income | -110.8 m | 52.9 m | 54.4 m | 26.9 m | 34.1 m | 54.2 m | 58.7 m | 63.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.0 m | 30.6 m | 30.9 m | 31.7 m | 33.1 m | 34.5 m | 35.2 m | 35.3 m |
| Interest expense | 7.1 m | 14.3 m | 14.8 m | 15.7 m | 15.8 m | 16.8 m | 16.8 m | 16.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | -116.3 m | 36.6 m | 50.7 m | 9.2 m | 16.9 m | 37.6 m | 43.4 m | 49.2 m |
| Income tax | -4.3 m | 9.5 m | 13.3 m | 2.5 m | 11.9 m | 10.7 m | 12.2 m | 14.6 m |
| Net income | -111.9 m | 27.1 m | 37.4 m | 6.7 m | 5.0 m | 26.9 m | 31.2 m | 34.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | -2.71 | 0.68 | 0.94 | 0.17 | 0.12 ≈ | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| Operating cash flow | -11.6 m | 53.8 m | 88.2 m ≈ | 65.0 m ≈ | 115.0 m | 57.8 m | 49.3 m ≈ | 79.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.1 m | 39.3 m | 147.4 m ≈ | 100.2 m ≈ | 110.0 m | 93.1 m | 20.5 m ≈ | 28.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 12 percentile of its own 17-quarter history (min 8.5, median 82.6, max 256.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ⚠ 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 681.6 m | 723.4 m | 545.1 m | 503.6 m | 531.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.9% | +6.1% | −24.6% | −7.6% | +5.4% | — | +3.1% | +13.7% |
| Net income | 33.3 m | 47.6 m | 27.5 m | 16.6 m | -182.7 m | 54.8 m | 64.6 m | 76.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +1.3% | +43.1% | −42.3% | −39.6% | −1,201.3% | — | +17.9% | +18.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.32 | 1.36 | 0.78 | 0.43 | -5.06 | 1.38 | 1.62 | 1.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −5.7% | +3.0% | −42.6% | −44.9% | −1,276.7% | — | +17.4% | +15.4% |
| net % | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | -34.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| Free cash flow | 950.0 k | 26.3 m | 148.0 m | 115.7 m | -27.5 m | -48.9 m | -600.0 k | -74.9 m |
The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 134.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.92x
- Current ratio
- 0.94x
- ROE
- 6.2%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- -4.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 545.1 m | 503.6 m | 531.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 80.2 m | 63.2 m | -185.0 m | 135.3 m | 137.0 m | 168.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 82.3 m | 82.8 m | 81.5 m | 159.4 m | 117.0 m | 126.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 162.5 m ≈ | 146.0 m ≈ | -103.5 m ≈ | 294.7 m ≈ | 254.0 m ≈ | 294.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 44.1 m | 34.7 m | 35.3 m | 49.1 m | 57.7 m | 60.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 37.0 m | 22.4 m | -234.7 m | 88.0 m | 86.9 m | 113.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.5 m | 5.8 m | -52.0 m | 33.2 m | 22.3 m | 37.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 27.5 m | 16.6 m | -182.7 m | 54.8 m | 64.6 m | 76.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.78 | 0.43 | -5.06 | 1.38 | 1.62 | 1.87 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 35.3 m | 38.8 m | 36.1 m | 39.7 m | 39.8 m | 40.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 99.4 m | 120.5 m | 57.7 m | 16.1 m | 110.5 m | 134.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | — | 63.0 m | 88.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 155.6 m | 158.4 m | 98.3 m | 150.3 m | 453.3 m | 540.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 865.3 m | 534.5 m | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | 2.1 m | 2.1 m | 122.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 8.0 m | 6.8 m | 3.8 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Dec 2022verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 775.6 m | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 53.2 m | 61.5 m | 59.4 m | 54.5 m | 60.9 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 189.3 m | 111.7 m | 97.2 m | 156.8 m | 143.3 m | 202.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 542.5 m | 539.7 m | 502.5 m | 315.5 m | 83.8 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 353.3 m | 258.2 m | 214.5 m | 253.9 m | 489.1 m | 574.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.0 bn | 968.6 m | 807.4 m | 633.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 457.9 m † | 488.0 m † | 308.2 m † | 1.0 bn † | 1.1 bn † | 1.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 35.5 m | 36.0 m | 36.4 m | 40.9 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Jan 2024verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 174.7 m | 132.9 m | 13.4 m | 329.2 m | 226.1 m | 322.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 26.7 m | 17.1 m | 40.8 m | 378.1 m | 226.7 m | 396.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 148.0 m ≈ | 115.7 m ≈ | -27.5 m ≈ | -48.9 m ≈ | -600.0 k ≈ | -74.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -26.7 m | -33.5 m | 1.4 m | -420.9 m | -105.5 m | -350.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -117.7 m | -78.4 m | -77.6 m | 107.1 m | -102.2 m | 54.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 586.0 k | 1.5 m | 455.0 k | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Dec 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 958.4 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet52
- Growth100
- Valuation81
- Quality51
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 20.80 – 84.64 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)35.21 – 58.11 (Mid 43.78)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 92.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -15.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA45.43 – 84.64 (Mid 57.36)8 companies used · median multiple 7.9x · quartiles 6.3x – 11.5xAAL, ALGT, ALK, CPA, DAL, LUV, SKYW, UAL
- Peers: P/E20.80 – 67.52 (Mid 37.93)7 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 9.8x – 31.7xALGT, CPA, DAL, LUV, RYAAY, SKYW, UAL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.3% | 56 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.6% | 67 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 49.9% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 46.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 80 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 23 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.6x | 75 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 2.9x | 100 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.1% | 64 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet52/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.7%; net margin 4.6%; ROE 7.5%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 35.21–67.52 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.78 USD, the price of 20.50 USD leaves a potential of 113.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 53.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 46.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
- P/E (TTM): 9.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 2.9x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 49.9%
- Interest coverage: 3.2x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A. | 27,436.0 bn | 19,289.5 | 141.1% | 10.2% | +11.2% | −1% / unavailable |
| RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc | 61.6 bn | 40.6 | — | — | +3.8% | −13% / +25% |
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | 58.7 bn | 17.8 | 15.9% | 4.6% | +2.8% | +39% / +142% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | 37.6 bn | 10.6 | 22.3% | 5.5% | +3.5% | +14% / +194% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co | 22.7 bn | 22.9 | 13.9% | 3.3% | +2.1% | +33% / +82% |
| AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. | 9.0 bn | — | — | -0.8% | +0.8% | −3% / +10% |
| CPACopa Holdings, S.A. | 6.0 bn | 9.0 | 26.1% | 18.6% | +5.0% | +20% / +57% |
| ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc. | 4.5 bn | — | -4.6% | -1.2% | +21.3% | −7% / +6% |
| SKYWSkywest Inc | 3.1 bn | 8.0 | 15.1% | 9.7% | +15.0% | −19% / +74% |
| ALGTAllegiant Travel Co | 2.2 bn | 56.7 | 1.8% | 0.9% | +3.7% | +7% / +19% |
| ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 1.6 bn | — | -175.4% | -8.9% | −1.4% | +55% / +81% |
| JBLUJetblue Airways Corp | 1.3 bn | — | -55.4% | -10.0% | −2.3% | −22% / −19% |
| RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. | 958.4 m | 9.6 | 7.5% | 4.6% | +13.7% | +4% / +114% |
| FJETStarfighters Space, Inc. | 46.8 m | — | -94.2% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AZULAzul SA | — | — | — | 0.6% | +10.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RJET from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 13.16 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 23.16 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 34.74 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 15.61 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 30.63 Total return 49% · Per year 14% | 50.02 Total return 144% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 18.51 Total return -10% · Per year -2% | 40.50 Total return 98% · Per year 15% | 72.03 Total return 251% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 7.66
- Net margin± 5.36
- Annual revenue growth± 4.00
- Annual dilution± 0.45
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Republic Airways is the second largest independent regional airline in the United States, operating almost entirely under capacity purchase agreements with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. After the November 2025 merger with Mesa Air Group it has grown its fleet and output substantially, reporting revenue of $571.1 million in the second quarter of 2026 and a total fleet of 314 aircraft.
SWOT
Strengths
- Long-term contracts with three major airlines provide relatively predictable revenue and limited exposure to fares and fuel 1.
- High operational reliability, with a controllable completion factor close to 100% 13.
- A proprietary pilot training system that can reduce reliance on the external labour market 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expanding capacity through new contracts or a consolidated network after the merger, if integration proceeds as planned.
- Consolidating operations under a single operating certificate could yield real cost synergies.
- Growing its own training programs could help retain staff and lower recruitment costs.
Threats
- Partners could cut flight schedules during demand downturns or when fuel prices rise.
- Pilot scarcity and retirements at age 65 could limit capacity growth and raise wage costs.
- Safety incidents or technical issues with Embraer aircraft could damage reputation and operations.
Risks
- Contract concentrationhigh
Nearly all revenue comes from contracts with three airlines, and non-renewal or early termination of a contract could materially affect financial results 1.
- Mesa integrationhigh
Integrating systems, workforces and operating certificates could exceed estimated costs and delay the synergies the company expects 13.
- Pilot shortagemedium
A lack of qualified pilots could limit the ability to meet contracted schedules and could increase staffing costs 1.
- Indebtednessmedium
Debt and lease obligations could limit financial flexibility if revenue falls or integration costs exceed estimates 3.
- Reliance on Embraerlow
The company depends on one aircraft and engine manufacturer, and delivery delays or maintenance issues could affect operations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Long-term contracts and fixed payments could provide predictable revenue, and fleet growth after the merger could support further capacity expansion.
- High operational reliability and completion rates could strengthen the company's position in negotiations for new contracts.
- If the Mesa integration proceeds as planned, synergies could improve margins and support debt reduction.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on three contracts could leave revenue vulnerable if a partner reduces flying or does not renew.
- Integration costs and high debt could limit profitability if synergies are delayed or smaller than expected.
- Pilot scarcity and an ageing fleet could raise costs and reduce the ability to win new contracts.
What to watch
- Progress of the Mesa integration and consolidation under a single operating certificate2027
- Delivery against 2026 guidance for revenue and block hoursQ4 2026
- Renewal or amendment of the Delta Air Lines contracts, which expire between 2027 and 20302027
- Trend in debt and liquidity relative to deleveraging goalsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Republic provides scheduled passenger service on about 1,300 daily flights to roughly 130 cities in the United States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, mainly under the American Eagle, Delta Connection and United Express brands. Nearly all service is flown under multi-year capacity purchase agreements in which the partner airlines control routes, pricing, marketing and scheduling, while Republic receives fixed payments, so revenue does not depend directly on fares, load factors or fuel prices. The company operates only Embraer E170 and E175 aircraft and grew its fleet from 175 aircraft in 2017 to 275 by the end of 2025, before the Mesa merger.
Segments
Capacity purchase agreements with partner airlines
Revenue comes from fixed fees per departure, flight hour or block hour, plus fees for aircraft in service and a premium tied to minimum utilization and operating results. Republic also receives reimbursement for direct costs such as insurance and property taxes, while partners pay directly for fuel and landing fees 1. This structure reduces exposure to fare and demand swings but makes revenue dependent on contracts with three large carriers.
Pilot development through LIFT Academy
The company runs its own flight school, LIFT Academy, founded in 2018, to attract and train pilots in a market where FAA requirements have shrunk the pool of candidates 1. The program provides a career path to first officer at Republic and a partnership with Cape Air, and graduates contractually commit to work at Republic for at least five years or at least two years as a captain.
Operations with partner airlines
All flying is performed under capacity purchase agreements with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, each with aircraft tranches expiring between 2026 and 2037 1. After the Mesa merger the company reported a completion factor of 98.21% in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Market context
Regional airlines play an essential role in the US air system as the only local access point for many smaller cities, and according to the RAA they performed 32% of scheduled US airline flights in 2024 1. The market is dominated by a few major airlines that outsource flying to specialised regional operators, so demand for regional capacity depends on the network decisions of those majors.
Following the November 2025 merger, Republic aims to increase output, with 2026 guidance of at least 880,000 block hours and revenue of about $2.1 billion 3. Growth depends on integrating Mesa operations, which the company expects to take between 18 and 24 more months 3.
Trends
- Mesa integrationmixed
The merger added aircraft and block hours, but integrating systems, workforces and operating certificates is complex and costly, and the company has reported merger-related expenses 13.
- Economic conditions and fuel pricesheadwind
Recession, inflation, tariffs and international conflicts could reduce partner flight schedules, and jet fuel prices may affect the number of flights operated, although Republic does not bear fuel costs directly 1.
- Fleet modernisationmixed
The E175 order and newer aircraft can support service to partners and may lower long-term operating costs, but maintenance costs are expected to rise as the fleet, with an average age of about 13 years, gets older 1.
Competitive position
Republic competes mainly with other regional airlines for capacity purchase contracts, with major airlines weighing factors such as ability to fly contracted schedules, pilot availability, operating cost, financial resources and reliability 1. Beyond rival regionals, the company depends on partners deciding whether to reallocate regional flying or expand their own smaller-jet fleets.
- Other regional airlines with major-airline capacity contracts
Compete with Republic for the same capacity purchase contracts, based on cost, reliability and the ability to staff flying.
- Independent regional operators with their own contracts
Could take over regional routes if a partner decides to reallocate its flying to another provider.
- Major airlines operating their own fleets
Could reduce demand for regional aircraft if they fly smaller aircraft under their own brands.
- Flight training providers and flight schools
Compete for the same pilot candidates, affecting the cost and availability of staff.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- France and the Unfinished Promise of the RepublicTo Vima International (GR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- War , tariffs and China : What the US midterms mean for the Asia - Pacific - Dominican Republic Post – Caribbean News , Business , Travel & CultureSurge — GDELT DOC · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Albanian Parliament Speaker Peleshi Visits Prague, Czech Republic Reaffirms Support for Albania’s EU IntegrationEuronews Albania (AL, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Half the Central African Republic is under 15, while 30% of Japan is over 65 - OWIDbne IntelliNews (EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- 🇷🇺 🇨🇫 ⚡ Russian instructors helped the Central African Republic’s army prevent a…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Turkish Republic Day in Budapest: Torchlit march celebrates 103 years of the republic – VIDEODaily News Hungary (HU, EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Central African Republic builds relations with Russia as full-fledged partner — presidentTASS (RU, EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Central African Republic has right to choose friends without permission — presidentTASS (RU, EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russia helped Central African Republic when it was truly in need — presidentTASS (RU, EN) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russia, Central African Republic agree to expand cooperation in fight against epidemicsTASS (RU, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Czech Republic: Meerkats and cheetah cubs play with Halloween pumpkinsEuronews — News (EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- ‘People’s Republic of the Disappeared’: Stories of Horror But Also ResilienceThe Diplomat (Asia geopolitics) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Czech Republic stays on course for rate hike as Hungary's growth stalls - Capital Economicsbne IntelliNews (EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Air defenses destroy 100 Ukrainian UAVs over LPR in past day — republic headTASS (RU, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Hungarian fugitive on Top 50 wanted list caught in the Czech RepublicDaily News Hungary (HU, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Anita Orbán Gets the “Banana Republic” Welcome from Marco RubioHungary Today (HU, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- 103rd Republic Day celebrations set sail on Istanbul's BosporusDaily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Trump calls Erdoğan during Turkic leaders' Republic Day dinnerDaily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Türkiye bursts with pride in nationwide Republic Day celebrationsDaily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Aliyev sends congratulatory message on Türkiye’s Republic DayHürriyet Daily News — Türkiye (TR, EN) · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations
- Current report17 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)17 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report01 May 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations
- Current report28 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Republic Airways Holdings Inc. · 19 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Republic Airways Holdings Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Republic Airways Holdings Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.