olivLaw · US equity research
TMD Energy Ltd TMDE
Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) · SIC 5172 · Vertical: Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) (SIC 5172)
TMD Energy Ltd is a marine bunkering operator that supplies fuel to ships from a fleet of 15 vessels and also provides ship management services to third parties. Revenue grew in fiscal 2024 but fell in the first six months of fiscal 2025 under pressure from trade tariffs, oil price volatility and lower fuel volumes delivered.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, TMD Energy Ltd (TMDE) stock was 0.50 USD (−3.65% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.8 m USD, beta -1.63, 52-week range 0.41–4.04 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.51 – 0.67
- below the lower band · %B -0.06 · band width 26.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.66 / 0.94
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −22.9% | −1.1% | −21.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −28.4% | −0.5% | −28.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −52.7% | +4.4% | −57.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.9% | +12.3% | +5.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −24.1% | +13.5% | −37.6 pp | +24.1% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −14.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 702.1 m | 633.1 m | 688.6 m | 545.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −9.8% | +8.8% | unavailable |
| Net income | 2.4 m | 2.0 m | 1.9 m | -18.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −15.9% | −5.9% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.09 | -0.79 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −16.7% | −10.0% | unavailable |
| net % | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | -3.4% |
| Free cash flow | -6.1 m | -2.5 m | -28.0 m | 7.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 4.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 86.5 m USD
- Net debt
- 82.6 m USD
- Equity
- 3.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 125.1 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 27.76x
- Current ratio
- 0.78x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -14.9%
- FCF margin
- 1.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 702.1 m | 633.1 m | 688.6 m | 545.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 688.8 m | 621.0 m | 672.6 m | 541.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 13.3 m | 12.1 m | 16.0 m | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 4.5 m | 2.6 m | 6.0 m | -12.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 2.0 m | 2.2 m | 4.6 m | 5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.2 m | 3.7 m | 3.5 m | -19.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -8.7 k | 774.2 k | 1.4 m | -318.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.4 m | 2.0 m | 1.9 m | -18.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.09 | -0.79 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 20.0 m | 20.0 m | 20.0 m | 23.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 4.8 m | 16.1 m | 4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 22.6 m | 20.3 m | 29.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 15.8 m | 9.7 m | 9.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 71.2 m | 77.9 m | 94.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 33.2 m | 32.1 m | 30.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 1.1 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | — | 104.4 m | 110.1 m | 125.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 52.3 m | 7.4 m | 29.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 24.1 m | 79.3 m | 86.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 553.1 k | 504.3 k | 468.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 81.6 m | 90.4 m | 121.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 82.2 m | 91.0 m | 122.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 20.0 m | 22.2 m | 19.1 m | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 20.0 m | 23.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 518.6 k | 654.2 k | -24.3 m | 10.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.6 m | 3.1 m | 3.8 m | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -6.1 m ≈ | -2.5 m ≈ | -28.0 m ≈ | 7.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.6 m | -3.1 m | -16.0 m | -4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 8.0 m | -2.5 m | 50.9 m | -9.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 11.8 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.22 – 23.87 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)6.22 – 23.87 (Mid 10.71)WACC 5.6% · starting FCFF 11.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 86%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -11.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.4% | 0 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -2.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 63.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TMD ENERGY LIMITED (TMDE). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 545.0 m USD in 2026; net margin -3.4%; ROE -154.1%.
The estimated value range is 6.22–23.87 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.71 USD, the price of 0.50 USD leaves a potential of 2,038.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 95.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 63.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -11.2%
- Net margin: -3.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.9%
- Interest coverage: -2.4x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) (SIC 5172) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKCWorld Kinect Corporation | 1.9 bn | — | -11.5% | -0.4% | −12.5% | +64% / +81% |
| CAPLCrossamerica Partners LP | 773.8 m | 16.1 | — | 1.2% | −10.6% | −1% / −15% |
| PTLEPTL Limited | 121.4 m | — | -24.8% | -1.6% | −27.0% | −30% / unavailable |
| BANLCbl International Limited | 80.0 m | — | -14.0% | -0.6% | −9.1% | −48% / −86% |
| DLXYDelixy Holdings Limited | 23.7 m | — | -612.2% | -1.5% | −2.3% | +49% / unavailable |
| UFGUni-Fuels Holdings Ltd | 13.6 m | — | -23.3% | -0.7% | +70.0% | +279% / unavailable |
| TMDETmd Energy Limited | 11.8 m | — | -154.1% | -3.4% | unavailable | −24% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TMDE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Sept 2025; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 20-F (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (11 Aug 2026).
In brief
TMD Energy Ltd is a marine bunkering operator that supplies fuel to ships from a fleet of 15 vessels and also provides ship management services to third parties. Revenue grew in fiscal 2024 but fell in the first six months of fiscal 2025 under pressure from trade tariffs, oil price volatility and lower fuel volumes delivered 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has its own fleet of vessels dedicated to bunkering and an extensive customer base, giving it a solid operating position.
- The main segment accounts for almost all revenue, making the business model concentrated and easy to follow.
- The company grew its customer count and improved its margin in fiscal 2024.
Weaknesses
- Gross margins are very thin, so small changes in volume or cost have a visible effect on profitability.
- The group depends on one main segment, which makes it vulnerable to falls in marine fuel demand.
- Net results deteriorated in the first six months of fiscal 2025, with losses and higher financing costs.
Opportunities
- If trade tensions ease, shipping volumes could recover and support fuel demand.
- Diversifying supply sources and strengthening supplier relationships could improve operational resilience.
- Expanding ship management services for new clients could diversify revenue sources.
Threats
- Trade tariffs and their frequent changes can reduce vessel activity and fuel demand.
- Oil price volatility and geopolitical instability can raise costs and compress margins.
- Currency fluctuations produced significant foreign exchange losses in 2025.
Risks
- Dependence on bunkering volumehigh
Revenue depends heavily on the volume of fuel delivered, which fell in 2025 and could fall again if maritime traffic slows.
- Fuel price volatilityhigh
Selling prices are linked to oil prices, and fluctuations can directly affect margins and operating cash flow.
- Geopolitical risksmedium
Conflicts in key regions and disruption of shipping routes can reduce demand and raise operating costs.
- Currency exposuremedium
The group has no foreign currency hedging policy, and movements between the dollar and local currencies produced significant losses in 2025.
- Financing costsmedium
Higher interest expense, linked to larger trade financing facilities, could strain the group's financial position.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If bunkering volume recovers as maritime trade stabilises, the expanded customer base could again support group revenue.
- Growth in ship management services could add a revenue source less dependent on fuel prices.
- Operating experience and an owned fleet could allow the group to benefit from a recovery in vessel activity.
What would break the thesis
- If tariffs and geopolitical tensions persist, delivered volume could stay low and revenue could keep falling.
- Very thin margins could stay under pressure if operating costs rise faster than selling prices.
- The net loss in the first part of fiscal 2025 and higher financing costs could limit the group's funding capacity.
What to watch
- Trend in volume of fuel delivered and bunkering revenueNext half-year report
- Gross margin of the bunkering segmentNext half-year report
- Evolution of trade tariffs and their impact on maritime traffic2026
- Net result and interest expenseNext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Sept 2025; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 20-F (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (11 Aug 2026).
The business
The group operates mainly in bunkering, the supply of marine fuel to ships, which accounted for more than 99% of group revenue in the six months ended June 30, 2025 1. Revenue rose from $633.1 million in fiscal 2023 to $688.6 million in fiscal 2024, driven by higher volumes of fuel delivered 1. The group also provides ship management services with a team of qualified mariners, including for tugboats used in port and STS operations owned by other entities in the Straits group 1.
Segments
Ship management services
This segment is small in revenue but grew in the first six months of fiscal 2025 by adding new customers, with revenue reaching about $0.9 million 1. The source does not indicate growth comparable to bunkering.
Market context
Demand for marine fuel depends on shipping activity, which is sensitive to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, as well as to trade policies and tariffs introduced in 2025 1. Fuel prices are generally benchmarked to market oil prices, and in the six months ended June 30, 2025 the average oil price fell 17.9% compared with the prior-year period 1.
Trends
- Trade tensions and tariffsheadwind
Tariffs introduced in 2025 and frequent changes to them disrupted shipping schedules, reduced cargo volumes and lowered demand for marine fuel, weighing on group revenue 1.
- Geopolitical tensionsmixed
The conflict in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East created oil price volatility and raised operating costs. The company states the direct effect of the Ukraine conflict has moderated, but instability remains a risk factor 1.
- Customer base expansiontailwind
The group expanded its bunkering customer base, which helped volume growth in fiscal 2024 and partly offset the decline seen in 2025 1.
- Margin pressureheadwind
Bunkering gross margin compressed in 2025 due to higher operating costs, weaker demand and a narrower spread between selling prices and procurement costs 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not explicitly name the group's competitors. From the business description, the marine bunkering market includes other marine fuel suppliers, and the company says it is diversifying its sourcing to support its position 1.
- Other marine bunkering suppliers
The source does not name specific competitors; the group operates in a market with several marine fuel suppliers.
- Ship management operators
The source does not name specific competitors for the group's ship management services.
- Entities in the Straits group
Affiliated companies operating tugboats and other vessels; the relationship is intra-group, not direct competition.
- Shipping transport service providers
The source mentions service partners, not named competitors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Annual report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)11 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-06-30 · SEC / TMD Energy Ltd · 29 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.