The Energy Crisis: between Escalation and Global Realignment

The energy crisis remains a highly probable scenario, with an 85% probability, according to Intel Hub's analysis. The impact of this crisis will be significant, with effects on energy costs, supply chains, and energy security, ranging between 40% and 60% of the analyzed scenarios.

Scenario Analysis

The dominant scenario, "energy-crisis-escalation", has a 40% probability and a severity of 0.5. This scenario is supported by energy cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as Europe's nuclear plans. A recent statement by a Kremlin aide described forecasts for Russia-Kazakhstan energy cooperation as "very optimistic" [Russia-Kazakhstan energy cooperation forecasts are very optimistic — Kremlin aide](https://tass.com/politics/2136901).

Determinant Factors

Among the key factors that could influence the evolution of the energy crisis are cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan, Europe's nuclear plans, particularly those of France, and possible disruptions in supply chains. Macron's nuclear plan has been described as a measure aimed at making Putin "think twice" before attacking Europe [Macron's nuclear plan aimed at making Putin "think twice" before attacking Europe](https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/ue/planul-nuclear-al-lui-macron-menit-sa-l-faca-pe-putin-sa-se-gandeasca-de-doua-ori-inainte-sa-atace-europa-trebuie-sa-fim-temuti-3786763).

Impact on Romania

Romania, as an EU and NATO member state, is exposed to the risks associated with the energy crisis. The "romanialocal-mitigation" scenario has a 30% probability and a severity of 0.275, suggesting that local mitigation measures could reduce the impact of the crisis. A 50% reduction in energy costs over a building's lifetime is considered a significant contribution to sustainability, according to Andrei Diaconescu, co-founder of One United Properties [Andrei Diaconescu, co-founder of One United Properties, at the launch of the BERD InvestEU program](https://www.mediafax.ro/economic/andrei-diaconescu-cofondator-one-united-properties-la-lansarea-programului-investeu-al-berd-reducerea-cu-50-a-costurilor-energetice-pe-durata-de-viata-a-unei-cladiri-este-cea-mai-mare-cont-23744018).

Analysis Limitations

The present analysis has limitations determined by the quality and availability of data. Alternative scenarios, such as "global-energy-realignment" or "status-quo", cannot be completely ruled out, although they have lower probabilities. The available data are not sufficient to establish with certainty which scenario will prevail. Therefore, monitoring key indicators and periodically updating the analysis are necessary to capture changes in the evolution of the energy crisis.