Learning
Methodologies
Tradecraft frameworks for intelligence and forecasting — from I&W and ACH to Monte Carlo, KG reasoning and CRITIC.
Methodology
I&W — Indicators & Warning
Early detection of weak signals before strategic events unfold.
Methodology
ACH — Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Reduces confirmation bias by simultaneously testing every plausible explanation.
Methodology
ABI — Activity Based Intelligence
Infers intent from observable activity patterns.
Methodology
Premortem — assumed-failure analysis
Assume the plan has failed, then identify the causes before it begins.
Methodology
Red teaming — adversarial challenge
Attack your own assumptions and forecasts from the adversary's perspective.
Methodology
Monte Carlo simulation
Model uncertainty as probability distributions, not as single scenarios.
Methodology
Knowledge graph reasoning
Model entities and relations to trace strategic dependencies.
Methodology
CRITIC alerts
Rapid escalation for high-impact intelligence.