Romania's GDP recorded a decrease of -0.2% in the last quarter, signaling an increased risk of recession, with an estimated probability between 30–45%. The dominant scenario indicates a mild recession, with a probability of approximately 40%, driven by restrictive monetary policy and neutral fiscal policy.
Macroeconomic Context
The Romanian economy faces multiple challenges, from restrictive monetary policy to slow growth in unemployment and declining investments. Historical data shows that Romania has been a net exporter, but in 2024 imports increased by [88%](https://www.destatis.de/) and net production decreased by 7%, unbalancing the trade balance.
Possible Scenarios
The analysis identifies four main scenarios:
1. Mild recession (40% probability): characterized by a moderate decline in consumption and stabilization of unemployment.
2. Deep recession (20% probability): involves a significant decrease in investments and a substantial increase in unemployment.
3. Recovery (30% probability): assumes an economic rebound supported by stimulative fiscal policies.
4. Stagnation (10% probability): characterized by a lack of economic dynamism and maintenance of the current situation.
Impact of Recession
A recession, even a mild one, would have multiple effects on the Romanian economy. The railway sector, already at a critical point, could suffer severe consequences, as warned by railway unionists. Railway infrastructure is approaching collapse, which would negatively affect logistics and freight transport.
Limitations of the Analysis
The present analysis has limitations determined by available data and the complexity of the factors involved. Alternative scenarios cannot be completely ruled out, and future developments could invalidate current predictions. Re-evaluation of scenarios should be performed quarterly, depending on new macroeconomic data. The assumption of unchanged monetary policy represents one of the most fragile premises of the analysis.