The probability of Romania entering a recession is 84%, with the dominant scenario being "deepened recession" with a probability of 40%. The reduction in foreign investments and the increase in unemployment are the main factors that could contribute to this situation.
Possible scenarios
The analysis of possible scenarios shows that "deepened recession" has a probability of 40% and a severity of 0.5, followed by "controlled recession" with a probability of 30% and a severity of 0.275. "Prolonged recession" has a probability of 20%, and "mild recession" has a probability of 10%.
Impact of the recession
The recession could have multiple negative effects on the Romanian economy, including social instability, a decrease in purchasing power, and macroeconomic imbalances. The foreign investment sector would be one of the most affected, with companies such as ENGIE ROMÂNIA S.A. and FORD OTOSAN ROMÂNIA S.R.L. potentially being exposed to significant reductions in activity.
Associated risks
Among the risks associated with the recession are social instability, a decrease in purchasing power, and macroeconomic imbalances. Maintaining financial stability and reducing the impact on the population are major challenges for the Romanian authorities.
Limitations of the analysis
The present analysis has its limitations, especially regarding the available data and the calibration of probabilities. The presented scenarios are based on assumptions that may not materialize entirely. A reassessment of the situation should take place if significant changes occur in the Romanian economy or the international context.