olivLaw · European equity research
Antofagasta plc ANTO.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0000456144 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Antofagasta plc is a pure-play copper producer with mines in northern Chile and a rail and road transport division, FCAB. In 2025 it reported record revenue of $8.6 billion, but transport volumes fell and its major growth projects are in the construction phase.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Antofagasta plc (ANTO.L) stock was 31.25 GBP (−3.79% on the day), with beta 1.65, 52-week range 25.77–44.55 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 28.96 – 37.79
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 26.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 36.14 / 37.44
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.35 / -1.34
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −18.4% | +0.4% | −18.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −21.4% | −3.3% | −18.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −19.8% | +4.0% | −23.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.7% | +8.1% | −12.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +17.8% | +10.7% | +7.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +131.6% | +50.1% | +81.5 pp | +23.3% |
| 5 years | +128.5% | +43.6% | +84.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 8.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.6% | +30.3% |
| Net income | 835.1 m | 829.4 m | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −0.7% | +60.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 0.84 | 1.35 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −0.7% | +60.3% |
| net % | 13.2% | 12.5% | 15.4% |
| Free cash flow | 203.8 m | -129.6 m | -612.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 14.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 26.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.90x
- ROE
- 9.7%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- FCF margin
- -7.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 8.6 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 666.1 m | 755.1 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 835.1 m | 829.4 m | 1.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 0.84 | 1.35 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.24 | 0.24 | — | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 644.7 m | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.1 bn | 899.5 m | 1.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 671.0 m | 925.1 m | 754.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.2 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.7 bn | 13.9 bn | — | esef· 13 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 19.6 bn | 22.6 bn | 26.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.6 bn | 9.7 bn | 12.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 12.0 bn | 13.0 bn | 14.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 986.0 m | 986.2 m | 985.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 203.8 m ≈ | -129.6 m ≈ | -612.9 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.1 bn | -2.1 bn | -3.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -402.0 m | 1.3 bn | 912.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.97 – 28.91 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E15.97 – 28.91 (Mid 20.68)18 companies used · median multiple 15.3x · quartiles 11.8x – 21.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APN.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate3.09 – 4.15 (Mid 3.54)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.4% | 60 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -46.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANTO.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 30.3%; net margin 15.4%; ROE 13.4%.
The estimated value range is 15.97–28.91 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.9x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -46.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ANTO.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Antofagasta plc is a pure-play copper producer with mines in northern Chile and a rail and road transport division, FCAB. In 2025 it reported record revenue of $8.6 billion, but transport volumes fell and its major growth projects are in the construction phase.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has very high EBITDA margins and a copper mine portfolio with controlled costs, supported by long-running efficiency programmes 1.
- The private FCAB rail network and road solutions give an integrated position in mining logistics in northern Chile 1.
- Proprietary technologies such as Cuprochlor-T and predictive maintenance systems are assets that could reduce costs and downtime 1.
Weaknesses
- Rail transport volumes fell in 2025, reducing the transport division's EBITDA 1.
- The group's activity is geographically concentrated in northern Chile, exposing results to local and regulatory risks 1.
- Injury frequency rates in the transport division rose in 2025 compared with the prior year, although the group reported another fatality-free year 1.
Opportunities
- Growth projects at Centinela, Los Pelambres and Zaldívar could add significant volumes if completed on schedule 1.
- Licensing Cuprochlor-T to other producers could add revenue if the pilot succeeds at industrial scale 1.
- The hydrogen train could open the way for low-emission transport technology on a larger part of the FCAB network 1.
Risks
- Lower rail volumesmedium
Weaker demand for concentrates and sulphuric acid reduced transport division volumes, and a slow recovery could keep pressure on revenue 1.
- Operational safetyhigh
Mining carries inherent safety risks, and the group noted significant incidents across the industry; a serious accident could have operational and reputational consequences 1.
- Execution of growth projectsmedium
Delays or cost overruns on major projects could postpone planned additional production 1.
- Energy and fuel costsmedium
Energy and fuel prices directly affect production costs, and purchase contracts may not fully offset price swings 1.
- Concentration in Chilemedium
The group's activity is concentrated in Chile, and regulatory or environmental changes could affect operations and permits 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The group reported record revenue and a very high EBITDA margin in 2025, and structural copper demand could support results over the medium term 1.
- Major growth projects are funded and progressing to schedule, which could bring significant additional volumes 1.
- Efficiency programmes and proprietary technologies could reduce costs and create new revenue sources if confirmed at industrial scale 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in FCAB transported volumes and division EBITDAQ1 2027
- Progress of the Second Concentrator at Centinela2027
- Results of the Cuprochlor-T pilot at Zaldívar2027
- Renegotiation of labour agreements expiring in 2026 at Centinela and Zaldívar2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Antofagasta plc is a mining group headquartered in London that operates mainly in northern Chile, where it produces copper from four mines: Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and Zaldívar. According to the 2025 annual report 1, the group describes itself as a pure-play copper producer, and its strategy rests on growth, operational excellence and innovation. Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $8.6 billion 1, and the EBITDA margin reached 60.3% 1.
The transport division, FCAB, runs a privately owned rail network of more than 700 km 1 linking mines in the Antofagasta Region with ports and processing plants. Transport is dominated by bulk materials for the mining industry, such as sulphuric acid and copper concentrates 1. The division is headquartered in the city of Antofagasta and had more than 1,700 employees and contractors at 31 December 2025 1.
The group emphasises internal efficiency programmes such as its Operational Excellence Management System, which in its first year supported 98 initiatives worth about $42 million, while a second wave launched in 2025 targets a further $160 million 1. Major growth projects, such as the Second Concentrator at Centinela, are under construction and aim to add 170,000 tonnes of copper-equivalent production 1.
Segments
Mining Division
The mining division comprises four copper operations in northern Chile and is the main driver of group revenue. Consolidated revenue of $8.6 billion in 2025 1 largely reflects this activity, and electricity consumption of 3,724 GWh in 2025 1 and annual use of about 1.5 million tonnes of sulphuric acid 1 are key cost elements.
Transport Division (FCAB)
FCAB transported 6.4 million tonnes in 2025, 10% less than the prior year 1, and its EBITDA fell 8% to $70 million 1. The division pursues three pillars: productivity, growth and operational efficiency, and a hydrogen-powered train tested in the Antofagasta Region could, if proven viable, extend the use of low-emission technology across the network 1.
Growth projects
The main projects under construction include the Second Concentrator at Centinela, scheduled to finish in 2027 1, Los Pelambres growth enabling projects such as the desalination plant expansion, and the Zaldívar EIA approval granted in May 2025 1. The proprietary Cuprochlor-T technology could be licensed to other copper mines if pilot projects succeed at industrial scale 1.
Market context
The group describes the copper outlook as compelling, with strong demand fundamentals and constrained supply growth 1. Copper prices directly influence revenue, and producers of this kind are sensitive to costs such as energy, fuel and sulphuric acid. In 2025 the average WTI crude price fell about 14% year-on-year, and sulphuric acid CIF Chile was around $155 per tonne 1.
The rail freight market in northern Chile depends on regional mining activity. FCAB faces new competitors and expanding urban areas along its railway corridor 1, which changes competitive conditions in the bulk transport segment.
Trends
- Solid copper demandtailwind
The group sees copper demand as strong and limited supply growth could support prices over the medium term if these conditions persist 1.
- Energy and fuel costsmixed
Energy and fuel costs remain sensitive to international markets; prices were more balanced in 2025, but pressures could return 1.
- Pressure on rail volumesheadwind
Lower demand for concentrate and sulphuric acid shipments reduced FCAB volumes, and new competitors could limit their recovery 1.
- Permitting reform in Chiletailwind
The group notes that Chilean reforms aim to improve permitting efficiency, which could accelerate growth projects if the reforms are applied 1.
Competitive position
The group operates as a pure-play copper producer in a sector with many large players in Chile and elsewhere. The main source explicitly mentions that new competitors have emerged in regional rail transport 1. Additional sources on mining competitors are not included in this profile.
- New entrants in northern Chile rail transport
The annual report mentions new competitors on the FCAB railway corridor without naming them 1.
- Other copper producers in Chile
The source does not identify direct copper mining competitors, so none are listed with specific data in this profile.
- Regional road freight operators
FCAB also offers road cargo solutions 1, so local truck operators are indirect competitors.
- Rail freight providers
Competition in rail transport is mentioned generically in the report without naming companies 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Copper Miner Antofagasta Seeks to Link Ore Sales to Spot MarketBloomberg Markets · 17 Jun 2026 · EN
- Cutremur cu magnitudinea de 6,9 în Chile / A fost afectată regiunea minieră din orașul AntofagastaG4Media · 26 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202413 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Antofagasta plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.