olivLaw · European equity research
AVATION PLC AVAP.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B196F554 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
AVATION PLC is an aircraft leasing company that rents aircraft to airlines under operating leases. The source indicates the company has 13 months available to repay its Notes, a point of interest for investors following group liquidity.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AVATION PLC (AVAP.L) stock was 1.40 GBP (+0.00% on the day), with beta 0.24, 52-week range 1.24–1.50 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.39 – 1.43
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 2.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.40 / 1.37
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.00 / 0.00
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.2% | +0.4% | −1.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.4% | −3.3% | +4.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.8% | +4.0% | −2.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.2% | +8.1% | −5.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.8% | +10.7% | −15.5 pp | +7.3% |
| 3 years | +13.8% | +50.1% | −36.3 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +29.6% | +43.6% | −14.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 92.7 m | 92.4 m | 110.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.3% | +19.2% |
| Net income | 12.9 m | 19.7 m | -7.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +52.5% | −139.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.28 | -0.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +50.1% | −139.1% |
| net % | 14.0% | 21.4% | -7.0% |
| Free cash flow | 48.4 m | 81.6 m | 28.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Jun 2025
- Cash
- 48.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 652.3 m USD
- Net debt
- 604.2 m USD
- Equity
- 243.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.68x
- Current ratio
- 1.29x
- ROE
- -3.1%
- ROA
- -0.7%
- FCF margin
- 25.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 92.7 m | 92.4 m | 110.1 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 100.1 m | 96.0 m | 112.5 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 71.5 m | 83.2 m | 46.4 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 63.5 m | 63.0 m | 62.5 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 13.8 m | 30.0 m | -9.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Income tax | 886.0 k | 10.3 m | -2.0 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | 12.9 m | 19.7 m | -7.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.28 | -0.11 | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.00 | 0.01 | esef· 03 Dec 2025derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 24.8 m | 23.6 m | 48.1 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Receivables | 31.0 m | 15.9 m | 9.9 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Current assets | 172.8 m | 184.9 m | 247.1 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 845.5 m | 791.4 m | 725.1 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 1.9 m | 1.9 m | 1.9 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Total assets | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 61.4 m | 49.7 m | 70.1 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 694.6 m | 625.4 m | 582.3 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 140.5 m | 132.7 m | 190.9 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | 243.9 m | 256.4 m | 243.8 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 70.0 m | 70.9 m | 68.8 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 48.4 m | 81.6 m | 91.5 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Capex | 6.0 k | 5.0 k | 63.2 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 48.4 m ≈ | 81.6 m ≈ | 28.3 m ≈ | esef· 03 Dec 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 38.5 m | 13.2 m | -24.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -97.4 m | -96.0 m | -42.2 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 0 | 450.0 k | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 94.0 k | 95.0 k | 16.0 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.09 – 0.11 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.09 – 0.11 (Mid 0.10)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.4% | 21 (vs peers) | 33% |
| Net margin · Quality | -7.0% | 23 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 1.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AVATION PLC (AVAP.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 110.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 19.2%; net margin -7.0%; ROE -3.1%.
The estimated value range is 0.09–0.11 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Payout ratio (FCF): 1.6%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 4.4%
- Net margin: -7.0%
- Interest coverage: 0.7x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AVAP.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AVATION PLC is an aircraft leasing company that rents aircraft to airlines under operating leases. The source indicates the company has 13 months available to repay its Notes, a point of interest for investors following group liquidity.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a documented history of financing and refinancing aircraft, which supports its ability to access capital markets.
- Unencumbered assets and aircraft with low secured financing could provide a source of liquidity.
- Aircraft valuations are carried out by external valuers using a second-hand market considered active and measurable.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on refinancing to repay the Notes exposes the company to conditions in credit markets.
- The business depends on aircraft values, which are sensitive to the second-hand market cycle.
- Maintenance contributions create future payment obligations that are difficult to estimate precisely.
Opportunities
- If refinancing markets remain open, the group could finance new aircraft or refinance existing ones.
- Selling surplus assets could generate additional liquidity and support the repayment plan.
- Airline demand for leased aircraft could support utilisation of the portfolio.
Threats
- A weakening of the second-hand aircraft market could reduce revalued amounts and sale prices.
- If new issuance became unavailable, repayment of the Notes could depend on asset sales under less favourable conditions.
- External risks assessed by management could affect lessee receipts and contractual conditions.
Risks
- Refinancing of the Noteshigh
Repayment of the Notes depends mainly on new debt issuance or asset sales, which could become difficult if markets closed.
- Aircraft valuationmedium
Revalued amounts depend on the second-hand market and valuer assumptions; changes in these could affect profit and equity.
- Maintenance obligationsmedium
Lessor maintenance contributions create liabilities that could require unexpected payments when maintenance events occur.
- Concentration on airlinesmedium
Revenue depends on the ability of lessees to pay rent and meet aircraft return conditions.
- Depreciation and useful lifelow
Long depreciation periods and residual value assumptions could affect results if actual values differ from estimates.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If refinancing remains accessible, the group could repay the Notes within the 13-month window indicated by management.
- Unencumbered assets and assets with low secured financing could give extra flexibility if funding becomes difficult.
- Notes trading close to par suggests, in management's view, market confidence in repayment.
What would break the thesis
- If new issuance were unavailable, repayment could depend on asset sales made under less favourable conditions.
- A fall in aircraft values could reduce equity and limit access to funding.
- Maintenance contribution obligations could lead to larger payments than currently estimated.
What to watch
- Progress on refinancing or repayment of the Notes2026
- Movements in revalued aircraft values in the annual reportnext annual report
- Aircraft sales and assets held for sale2026
- Level of maintenance contributions and related liabilitiesnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the notes to the financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2025, the group leases aircraft to airlines under operating leases, retaining the risks and rewards of ownership. Rental income is recognised on a straight-line basis over the lease term, and lessor maintenance contributions are recorded as liabilities. Aircraft are carried at revalued amounts and depreciated over long useful lives.
The group also holds assets considered surplus to leasing needs, including pre-delivery deposits and aircraft purchase rights, which will be disposed of and are measured at fair value through profit or loss. This points to an active portfolio management approach through acquisitions and disposals.
Funding relies on secured and unsecured debt, and the company has issued Notes whose repayment depends on new debt issuance or asset sales. Management has cited a demonstrated history of financing and refinancing both new and existing aircraft.
Segments
Aircraft operating leasing
The core segment consists of leasing aircraft to airlines, with revenue recognised straight-line over the lease term. Maintenance contributions are treated as lease incentives and liabilities, which affects long-term margins.
Surplus aircraft and assets held for sale
Aircraft, deposits and purchase rights beyond leasing requirements are intended for sale or transfer. Asset sales can be a source of liquidity if the secondary market remains active.
Market context
According to the source, aircraft values are determined using lease encumbered value, based on the second-hand aircraft market, which external valuers consider active, known and measurable. Aircraft leasing takes place in markets with many active participants, where refinancings and aircraft sales are routine.
If the second-hand aircraft market weakened, revalued asset values and the ability to sell surplus assets could be affected. The source does not quantify this sensitivity.
Trends
- Aircraft refinancing markettailwind
Management considers the refinancing and aircraft sales markets to be active, which could facilitate repayment of the Notes.
- Dependence on second-hand aircraft marketheadwind
Valuation on a lease encumbered value basis depends on the second-hand aircraft market; a decline could reduce carrying values and sale proceeds.
- Cost and access to fundingmixed
The Notes trade close to par, suggesting market confidence in repayment, but access to new issuance remains central to the funding plan.
- Maintenance and lessee contributionsmixed
Leases include obligations to contribute to major maintenance, recognised as liabilities, which could influence future cash flows.
Competitive position
The source does not identify the group's competitors. It only notes that the business operates in markets with many active participants, without details on market share or positioning relative to other lessors.
- Other aircraft lessors
The source does not name competitors; it only refers to active participants in aircraft leasing markets, without identifying them.
- Alternative aircraft financiers
Management indicated that several alternative financing providers could offer refinancing, but the source does not name them.
- Secondary aircraft market
Sales of aircraft to other participants in the second-hand market are a liquidity channel, without identification of specific entities.
- Airline lessees
Lessees are the group's customers and, through their contracts, shape revenue and aircraft return conditions.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202503 Dec 2025
- Annual report 202412 Nov 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / AVATION PLC · 30 Jun 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.