olivLaw · European equity research
BHP Group Limited BHP.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
BHP is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore and copper, with operations in Australia, Chile, Peru, Brazil and the United States. The group is in a phase of growing copper output, supported by large projects such as the Escondida New Concentrator, while iron ore revenue stayed strong in fiscal 2026.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, BHP Group Limited (BHP.L) stock was 29.65 GBP (+0.68% on the day), with beta 0.80, 52-week range 20.15–35.72 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 28.36 – 32.81
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.29 · band width 14.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 31.87 / 30.41
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.67 / -0.63
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.3% | +0.4% | −9.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.2% | −3.3% | −7.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.2% | +4.0% | −8.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.3% | +8.1% | +23.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +39.6% | +10.7% | +28.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +24.6% | +50.1% | −25.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +55.3% | +43.6% | +11.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53.8 bn | 55.7 bn | 51.3 bn | 58.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.4% | −7.9% | +14.6% |
| Net income | 12.9 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −38.9% | +14.2% | +9.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.55 | 1.56 | 1.77 | 1.93 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −38.9% | +14.1% | +8.9% |
| net % | 24.0% | 14.2% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| Free cash flow | 12.0 bn | 11.8 bn | 9.3 bn | 11.9 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 18.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 24.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 5.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 56.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 121.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.43x
- Current ratio
- 1.88x
- ROE
- 18.1%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- FCF margin
- 20.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53.8 bn | 55.7 bn | 51.3 bn | 58.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | 22.9 bn | 17.5 bn | 19.5 bn | 23.9 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 21.4 bn | 16.0 bn | 18.4 bn | 22.4 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | 7.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.2 bn | 9.4 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | 12.9 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.55 | 1.56 | 1.77 | 1.93 | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 12.5 bn | 11.9 bn | 18.5 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 5.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 5.8 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 24.3 bn | 22.8 bn | 31.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 71.6 bn | 76.5 bn | 80.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 102.4 bn | 108.8 bn | 121.4 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 18.6 bn | 22.5 bn | 24.4 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 14.3 bn | 15.6 bn | 16.5 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 53.2 bn | 56.6 bn | 65.1 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 48.5 bn | 49.1 bn | 52.2 bn | 56.3 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 18.7 bn | 20.7 bn | 18.7 bn | 21.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.7 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.4 bn | 9.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 12.0 bn ≈ | 11.8 bn ≈ | 9.3 bn ≈ | 11.9 bn ≈ | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -13.1 bn | -8.8 bn | -13.4 bn | -12.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -10.3 bn | -11.7 bn | -6.0 bn | -3.3 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 88.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | esef· 21 Aug 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.88 – 41.43 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E22.88 – 41.43 (Mid 29.64)18 companies used · median multiple 15.3x · quartiles 11.8x – 21.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APN.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 22.2% | 79 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.7% | 63 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 121.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.0% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 90 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet96/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth12/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BHP GROUP LIMITED (BHP.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 58.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 14.6%; net margin 16.7%; ROE 19.9%.
The estimated value range is 22.88–41.43 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 22.2%
- FCF conversion: 121.3%
- Interest coverage: 11.6x
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -8.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BHP.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
BHP is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore and copper, with operations in Australia, Chile, Peru, Brazil and the United States. The group is in a phase of growing copper output, supported by large projects such as the Escondida New Concentrator, while iron ore revenue stayed strong in fiscal 2026 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Operational riskhigh
Transport incidents, fires and geotechnical instability can halt operations and affect people and the environment 1.
- Infrastructure riskhigh
Failure of key infrastructure such as tailings facilities, rail or ports can lead to production disruptions 1.
- Supply riskmedium
Geopolitical tensions can affect the delivery of fuel, ammonia and construction materials for projects 1.
- Talent riskmedium
An ageing workforce and competition for specialists can reduce the capacity to manage risks 1.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Permitting processes and land litigation can delay major projects 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If copper and iron ore demand remains stable, the group's diversified revenue could support stronger cash generation 1.
- Expansion projects such as the Escondida New Concentrator and Vicuña could add long-term capacity 1.
- Low unit costs in the Pilbara could offer protection in periods of weaker ore prices 1.
What to watch
- Copper production guidance for fiscal 20272027
- Final investment decision for Vicuña Stage 1CY2026
- Progress of the Escondida New Concentrator and approval of the DIA permitCY2027–2028
- Delivery of iron ore guidance and WAIO unit costs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
BHP runs several extraction divisions: copper, iron ore, steelmaking and energy coal, and potash and other assets. In fiscal 2026, the iron ore division generated revenue of 23.9 billion USD and underlying EBITDA of 14.5 billion USD 1. The company runs assets directly or through non-operated joint ventures such as Antamina and Samarco 1.
The medium-term strategy focuses on copper, a metal linked to electrification, while keeping iron ore output at low unit costs. Projects such as the Escondida New Concentrator, with an estimated investment of between 5.4 and 6.3 billion USD, show the direction of copper capacity expansion 1.
A distinctive feature of the portfolio is its high degree of integration along the logistics chain, including owned rail networks and ports in the Pilbara and a coal loading terminal 1. This model can support low costs but also exposes the company to operational and infrastructure risks 1.
Segments
Copper
Escondida copper output fell to 1261 kt in fiscal 2026 because of lower concentrator feed grade. For fiscal 2027, group copper production is guided at between 1650 and 1800 kt, predominantly because of the forecast grade decline at Escondida 1.
Market context
The iron ore market remains supported by Chinese demand, which stays resilient, although Chinese steel output could plateau later in this decade 1. The average price of 105 USD/dmt in fiscal 2026 reflects this demand, as well as higher energy and freight costs 1.
The copper market depends on ore grades and new capacity, and falling grades at some major mines could limit supply growth 1. Projects such as Vicuña and Resolution Copper point to the market turning to new sources, with long permitting timelines 1.
Trends
- Chinese demand for iron oretailwind
Chinese iron ore imports have grown while domestic output is constrained by environmental rules. This demand supports prices, but a slowdown in Chinese steel could ease that support 1.
- Declining copper ore gradesheadwind
Grades at the Escondida concentrator have fallen, and copper output could stay under pressure until new capacity comes online 1.
- Electrification and copper demandmixed
Copper capacity projects respond to a long-term demand outlook, but permitting timelines and high investment costs could delay the effects 1.
- Regulation and local communitiesmixed
Environmental permits and negotiations with Indigenous and local communities can slow projects, though they can also strengthen long-term access to resources 1.
Competitive position
In iron ore, BHP competes with other major producers in Australia and Brazil, and its advantage comes from low unit costs in the Pilbara and owned infrastructure 1. In copper, the company competes with other global producers for access to resources and approvals 1.
- Rio TintoRIO
Partner in Resolution Copper in Arizona and a direct competitor in Pilbara iron ore 1.
- Glencore
Partner in Antamina in Peru and a competitor across several copper and coal segments 1.
- Teck Resources
Partner in Antamina and a competitor in copper and zinc 1.
- Lundin Mining
Partner in the Vicuña project spanning Argentina and Chile, which is in the development phase 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202521 Aug 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / BHP Group Limited · 30 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.