olivLaw · European equity research
BNP Paribas BNP.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0000131104 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
BNP Paribas is an integrated European bank active in commercial and personal banking, corporate and institutional banking, insurance and asset management. At the end of 2025 the group reported a consolidated balance sheet of EUR 2,793.0 billion, and revenues for 2025 reached 51,223 million EUR.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, BNP Paribas (BNP.PA) stock was 91.94 EUR (+0.26% on the day), with market capitalisation 109.2 bn EUR, P/E 8.9 on diluted EPS of 10.29 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.21%, beta 1.24, 52-week range 65.34–112.80 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 83.05 – 92.63
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 10.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 94.96 / 95.40
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.54 / -2.65
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.3% | +0.4% | −3.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.3% | −3.3% | −15.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.4% | +4.0% | −5.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +13.8% | +8.1% | +5.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +39.3% | +10.7% | +28.6 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | +61.8% | +50.1% | +11.7 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | +54.5% | +43.6% | +10.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 6.2, median 7.0, max 7.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 11.7 bn | 12.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +4.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 9.57 | 10.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +7.5% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- unavailable EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 132.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 2,793.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 9.2%
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 15.4 bn | 16.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 16.2 bn | 17.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 11.7 bn | 12.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 9.57 | 10.29 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 4.79 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 5.6 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2,704.9 bn | 2,793.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2,570.8 bn | 2,660.8 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 134.1 bn | 132.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 109.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
10% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 65.14 – 303.45 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E118.23 – 303.45 (Mid 183.13)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)65.14 – 88.83 (Mid 75.17)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.9x | 83 (vs peers) | 100% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial83/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BNP PARIBAS (BNP.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 9.6%.
The estimated value range is 91.68–196.14 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 129.15 EUR, the price of 91.94 EUR leaves a potential of 40.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 28.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 8.9x
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BNP.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
BNP Paribas is an integrated European bank active in commercial and personal banking, corporate and institutional banking, insurance and asset management. At the end of 2025 the group reported a consolidated balance sheet of EUR 2,793.0 billion, and revenues for 2025 reached 51,223 million EUR 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an integrated and diversified platform with solid customer franchises in Europe and leading positions in several segments.
- Credit ratings in the A or AA range and a strong capital base support access to funding in international markets.
- Cross-selling between divisions accounts for a significant share of revenue, suggesting deep client relationships.
Weaknesses
- Lending to customers was flat in 2025, which limits growth in the interest-earning asset base.
- Net gains on financial instruments at fair value declined in 2025, showing the volatility of trading activities.
- The complexity of a model with many entities and divisions can raise coordination and integration costs.
Opportunities
- Integrating AXA Investment Managers could extend the group's position in European asset management.
- Capital markets and corporate financing activities could benefit from a more active financing environment.
- Development of digital businesses and specialised services could bring new revenue sources.
Threats
- Changes in central bank interest rates could affect interest margins, especially if rates fall quickly.
- Competition in banking, insurance and asset management could pressure margins across all divisions.
- Capital regulation and prudential requirements could limit the capacity to allocate capital to new activities.
Risks
- Credit riskmedium
Exposure to corporate and retail loans could generate losses if European economies weaken, and impairment provisions remain an indicator to watch 1.
- Market riskmedium
Trading activities and fair value derivatives can produce volatile results, especially during periods of market stress.
- Liquidity and funding riskmedium
The funding structure depends on customer deposits and interbank borrowing, and changes in confidence could affect funding costs.
- Integration riskmedium
Integrating AXA Investment Managers and other acquisitions may encounter operational and organisational culture difficulties.
- Regulatory risklow
Changes to capital and compliance requirements could reduce flexibility in some activities.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If interest and commission income keep growing, the group could sustain a solid return on tangible equity.
- Growth in assets under management after the AXA IM integration could bring more stable recurring revenue.
- A leading European position and high credit ratings could support access to funding and high-quality clients.
What would break the thesis
- If policy rates fall, interest margins could be compressed, affecting the main source of revenue.
- Flat lending to customers could limit growth in the core business in the coming years.
- Volatility in trading activities could reduce revenues during difficult market conditions.
What to watch
- Development of net interest income and the interest marginQ1 2027
- Level of impairment provisions and credit quality2027
- Contribution of the new asset manager after the AXA IM integrationnext 10-K
- Progress of the BMCI and Athlon transactions, if they are completed2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group operates through an integrated and diversified model organised in three operating divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking, Commercial, Personal Banking & Services, and Investment & Protection Services 1. According to the annual report, the group operates in 64 countries and has more than 180,000 employees, nearly 146,000 of them in Europe 1.
The acquisition of AXA Investment Managers, completed in the second half of 2025, created a European asset manager with a global platform under the BNP Paribas Asset Management brand, operating from 2026 1. The group presents this integration as part of consolidating its asset management and insurance activities 1.
Segments
Corporate & Institutional Banking
The CIB division serves corporate and financial institution clients with solutions in capital markets, securities services, financing and advisory, with more than 40,000 people in 52 countries, and generated about 37% of operating divisions revenues in 2025 1.
Commercial, Personal Banking & Services
The CPBS division covers commercial and personal banking in the eurozone, activities outside the eurozone in Central and Eastern Europe, Türkiye and Africa, and specialised businesses such as consumer finance, leasing and digital banking including Nickel and Floa 1.
Investment & Protection Services
The IPS division brings together insurance through BNP Paribas Cardif, wealth management, asset management and real estate services, and was strengthened in 2025 by the integration of AXA Investment Managers 1.
Market context
The group holds a leading position in banking and financial services in Europe, with strong customer franchises in several domestic markets 1. Market capitalisation at 31 December 2025 was 90.2 billion EUR, compared with 67.0 billion EUR at the end of 2024 1.
Long-term ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, Moody’s and DBRS remain in the A or AA categories, with stable outlooks at the latest reviews 1. These ratings are relevant to the group’s funding cost in international markets 1.
Trends
- Higher net interest incomemixed
Net interest income rose in 2025, indicating a positive contribution from the spread between lending and funding rates, although this depends on central bank rate levels 1.
- Consolidation in asset managementtailwind
Creating an asset manager with over 1.6 trillion EUR in assets under management could strengthen the group's position in European asset management 1.
- Demand for corporate financingtailwind
Financing and capital markets activities in the CIB division contributed to group revenues, and an active financing environment could support this business 1.
- Flat lending to customersheadwind
Loans to customers were broadly stable in 2025, suggesting limited credit demand with deposit growth outpacing lending growth 1.
Competitive position
The group competes with other large European and global banks in corporate finance, capital markets, asset management and bancassurance. The regulatory sources reviewed do not include a direct market share comparison with competitors, so relative positioning remains unclear from this document 1.
In Europe the group relies on solid customer franchises and a selective international presence, but competition in local markets and insurance remains intense 1.
- European universal banks
European banks with similar corporate and retail activities, referenced here as a general peer group without detail from the source.
- Global investment banks
Competitors in capital markets and corporate financing that compete with the CIB division in trading and M&A advisory.
- European asset managers
Asset management firms competing with the new BNP Paribas Asset Management brand in institutional and retail segments.
- Insurers with bancassurance
Competitors in protection and savings products, where the IPS division operates through Cardif.
News & filings
In the press
- Un trimestru fantastic pentru marile bănci europene, care raportează profituri de miliarde de euro. HSBC (8,6 mld. euro), BNP Paribas (3,5 mld. euro), UBS (2,4 mld. euro) şi Deutsche Bank (1,9 mld. euro) depăşesc aşteptările analiştilor, în ciuda turbulenţelor de pe pieţeZiarul Financiar · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Open to BNP Paribas Stake SaleBloomberg Markets · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas AM builds long-end JGB bet on steep yield curveThe Japan Times · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas AM Builds Long-End JGB Bet on Steep Yield CurveBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Belgian Government Facing Push to Sell 5.7% BNP Paribas StakeBloomberg Markets · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas' Mateos y Lago on the Global EconomyBloomberg Markets · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Seeing 'Bond Abundance': BNP Paribas' RobsonBloomberg Markets · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Arval, parte a BNP Paribas, anunță schimbări în conducerea grupului: Annie Pin va prelua funcția de CEO din aprilie 2027Mediafax · 08 Oct 2026 · RO
- BNP Paribas to keep sensitive data off public cloud despite Google dealCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas' Davis on Hiring Plans, Market FlowsBloomberg Markets · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas Says Warsh Can Prove Credibility With Rate HikeBloomberg Markets · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas Is Said to Handle Half of India’s Record MSCI TradesBloomberg Markets · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas Gets Saudi HQ License as Riyadh-Paris Ties DeepenBloomberg Markets · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Hard to See What Can Stop Upward Trend in Yields, BNP Paribas SaysBloomberg Markets · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Europe Stocks Poised to 'Grind Higher,' BNP Paribas SaysBloomberg Markets · 11 Aug 2026 · EN
- BNP Paribas Stock Traders Ride Wall Street Rally With 43% GainBloomberg Markets · 23 Jul 2026 · EN
- Bursă. BT Pensia Noastră a lichidat acţiunile la BNP Paribas şi Legrand în martie şi a triplat expunerea pe BRD, unde a ajuns la o investiţie de aproape 30 mil. leiZiarul Financiar · 15 Jul 2026 · RO
- ECB 'At a Minimum' Is Going to Hike Twice, BNP Paribas SaysBloomberg Markets · 09 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / BNP Paribas · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.