olivLaw · European equity research
Bellway p.l.c. BWY.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0000904986 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Bellway p.l.c. is a British homebuilder that designs, builds and sells houses in England, Scotland and Wales. In fiscal 2025 it completed 8,749 homes, with total revenue of £2,782.8m. The company is operating in a weak market but aims to grow volumes in the coming years.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Bellway p.l.c. (BWY.L) stock was 23.00 GBP (−0.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.7 bn GBP, P/E 14.0 on diluted EPS of 1.65 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.13%, beta 0.89, 52-week range 17.15–28.68 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.38 – 23.59
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.86 · band width 19.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 21.07 / 21.30
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.54 / 0.37
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.5% | −0.6% | +13.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.6% | −4.2% | +13.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +16.2% | +4.3% | +11.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.2% | +7.5% | −23.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −12.5% | +9.9% | −22.5 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +5.3% | +49.8% | −44.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −28.5% | +42.8% | −71.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 7.5, median 15.5, max 26.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −30.1% | +16.9% | +13.6% |
| Net income | 365.0 m | 130.5 m | 157.5 m | 193.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −64.2% | +20.7% | +22.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.96 | 1.09 | 1.32 | 1.65 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −63.2% | +20.9% | +24.9% |
| net % | 10.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| Free cash flow | 233.5 m | -66.9 m | 127.3 m | 330.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jul 2026
- Cash
- 287.7 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 130.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- -157.7 m GBP
- Equity
- 3.5 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 5.1 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.04x
- Current ratio
- 5.08x
- ROE
- 5.5%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- FCF margin
- 10.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 648.7 m | 361.2 m | 419.4 m | 476.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 505.3 m | 212.8 m | 250.7 m | 299.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 30.8 m | 36.3 m | 36.9 m | 36.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 483.0 m | 183.7 m | 221.9 m | 270.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 118.0 m | 53.2 m | 64.4 m | 76.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 365.0 m | 130.5 m | 157.5 m | 193.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.96 | 1.09 | 1.32 | 1.65 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.40 | 1.11 | 0.59 | 0.72 | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 362.0 m | 119.5 m | 171.8 m | 287.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 88.3 m | 76.8 m | 81.0 m | 80.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.0 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 31.7 m | 30.2 m | 45.5 m | — | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Total assets | 5.1 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 130.0 m | 130.0 m | 130.0 m | 130.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.0 bn | 933.5 m | 1.1 bn | 983.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 122.6 m | 118.9 m | 118.6 m | 116.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 236.2 m | -65.5 m | 139.2 m | 337.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.7 m | 1.4 m | 11.9 m | 6.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 233.5 m ≈ | -66.9 m ≈ | 127.3 m ≈ | 330.8 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -8.3 m | -8.0 m | -12.9 m | 7.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -241.2 m | -169.0 m | -74.0 m | -228.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 171.7 m | 131.7 m | 70.0 m | 83.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 66.0 m | 34.9 m | 0 | — | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 55 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.7 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality50
- Growth0
- Balance sheet100
- Returns67
- Valuation78
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 55/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.2% | 25 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.1% | 40 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 171.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -17.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.0x | 61 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.1% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 25.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
BELLWAY P L C (BWY.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.2 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth 13.6%; net margin 6.1%; ROE 5.5%.
The estimated value range is 18.58–28.66 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 23.74 GBP, the price of 23.00 GBP leaves a potential of 3.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 3.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 171.0%
- Interest coverage: 8.1x
- Current ratio: 5.1x
- FCF yield: 12.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 25.4%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 6.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -17.8%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| BWY.LBellway P L C | 2.7 bn | 14.0 | 5.5% | 6.1% | +13.6% | −19% / −1% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BWY.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.76 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 22.64 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 34.21 Total return 52% · Per year 52% |
| 3 years | 10.71 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 21.54 Total return 3% · Per year 1% | 35.98 Total return 68% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 9.00 Total return -51% · Per year -13% | 20.50 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 37.84 Total return 84% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 5.39
- Net margin± 3.77
- Annual revenue growth± 3.32
- Annual dilution± 0.32
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Bellway p.l.c. is a British homebuilder that designs, builds and sells houses in England, Scotland and Wales. In fiscal 2025 it completed 8,749 homes, with total revenue of £2,782.8m 1. The company is operating in a weak market but aims to grow volumes in the coming years.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Access to landhigh
Difficulty obtaining suitable land at appropriate margins and returns, together with planning delays, could affect growth 1.
- Legacy building safetyhigh
Remediation of legacy apartments could create additional costs and unforeseen financial exposure 1.
- Housing affordabilitymedium
Changes in interest rates and incomes could reduce affordability and the pace of sales 1.
- Labour and materials availabilitymedium
A shortage of skilled subcontractors or materials at competitive prices could delay projects 1.
- Health and safetymedium
A serious health, safety or environmental incident could have operational and reputational consequences 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Volume of homes completed against the target of around 9,200 homes2026
- Underlying operating margin against the expected level of around 11.0%fiscal 2026
- Net expense linked to legacy building safetynext annual report
- Progress of planning system reform and housing targets2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Bellway selects land, obtains planning permission, designs and constructs homes, then sells them to customers through its divisions 1. Its model links land acquisition, planning and customer service, and it reported an underlying operating margin of 10.9% in fiscal 2025 1. The company also runs a programme to remediate legacy buildings linked to building safety 1.
Management links its strategy to the 'Better with Bellway' framework, which covers returns, volume growth and responsible operation 1. Priorities include improving underlying pre-tax return on equity over the long term and raising capital efficiency 1.
Segments
Market context
The UK housing market faces modest economic growth, elevated unemployment and fragile consumer confidence 1. Planning approvals have fallen and the Bank of England cut the base rate to 4.0% 1. The company considers the long-term fundamentals of the sector solid, if planning reform and first-time buyer access improve 1.
Build cost inflation was moderate and materials availability was good in fiscal 2025 1. The company notes that if demand stabilises, it could support volume growth without major cost pressure 1.
Trends
- Planning reformmixed
The UK government has launched a planning overhaul to support delivery of 1.5 million homes in England 1. Progress has been slow, but reinstating mandatory housing targets could help the industry over the long term 1.
- Lower interest ratestailwind
The Bank of England's rate cut has gradually improved mortgage affordability 1. If rates stay stable, demand could strengthen 1.
- Unemployment and consumer confidenceheadwind
Unemployment rose during the year and consumer confidence remained fragile, which limits buyers' ability to purchase homes 1.
- Future Homes Standardheadwind
The Future Homes Standard will require new homes to produce much lower carbon emissions, with entry into force currently expected in 2027 1. Compliance costs could weigh on margins in the short term 1.
Competitive position
Bellway operates in a market with several large UK housebuilders, and the Competition and Markets Authority investigated seven housebuilders, including Bellway 1. The company accepted voluntary commitments and the investigation was closed in July 2025 1. Competition centres on land, pricing and the ability to deliver volumes.
- Other UK housebuilders
Direct competitors in the UK, investigated alongside Bellway by the CMA; the sources give no further detail.
- Regional developers
Local companies competing for land and customers in the same areas; the sources do not name them.
- Private homebuilders
Competition from builders targeting the same market segments; the sources give no detail.
- Social housing providers
Players competing for social housing contracts; the sources do not identify specific firms.
News & filings
In the press
- Burnham’s Your First Home scheme ‘could boost Bellway’s house output by 10%’The Guardian World · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202628 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202628 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2025
- Annual report 202412 Nov 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-07-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Bellway p.l.c. · 31 Jul 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.