olivLaw · European equity research
Card Factory plc CARD.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BLY2F708 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Card Factory is the leading UK card retailer expanding into a broader celebrations business, with a store network, wholesale partnerships and a digital arm enlarged by the Funky Pigeon acquisition. In fiscal 2026 the company reported revenue of 582.7 million pounds, while weak high street footfall tests its growth model.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Card Factory plc (CARD.L) stock was 0.89 GBP (−2.09% on the day), with market capitalisation 308.5 m GBP, P/E 10.0 on diluted EPS of 0.09 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.16%, beta 0.61, 52-week range 0.60–1.00 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.85 – 0.94
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.43 · band width 9.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.80 / 0.72
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.03 / 0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.0% | −0.6% | +6.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +17.9% | −4.2% | +22.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +31.5% | +4.3% | +27.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.1% | +7.5% | +23.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −11.2% | +9.9% | −21.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −12.2% | +49.8% | −62.1 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +81.3% | +42.8% | +38.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.5, median 6.9, max 7.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 510.9 m | 542.5 m | 582.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +6.2% | +7.4% |
| Net income | 49.5 m | 47.8 m | 31.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −3.4% | −34.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −4.2% | −35.0% |
| net % | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| Free cash flow | 86.4 m | 77.5 m | 98.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 17.4 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 85.3 m GBP
- Net debt
- 67.9 m GBP
- Equity
- 354.5 m GBP
- Total assets
- 660.9 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.24x
- Current ratio
- 0.89x
- ROE
- 8.9%
- ROA
- 4.9%
- FCF margin
- 16.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 510.9 m | 542.5 m | 582.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 326.0 m | 348.7 m | 394.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 184.9 m | 193.8 m | 188.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 76.4 m | 79.3 m | 59.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 13.4 m | 15.4 m | 15.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 65.6 m | 64.1 m | 43.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.1 m | 16.3 m | 12.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 49.5 m | 47.8 m | 31.2 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.09 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 11.1 m | 16.5 m | 17.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 11.6 m | 17.0 m | 20.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 50.0 m | 61.1 m | 58.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 73.8 m | 98.7 m | 104.1 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 45.9 m | 48.7 m | 51.6 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 552.1 m | 615.6 m | 660.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 7.1 m | 100.0 k | 1.5 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 37.9 m | 73.9 m | 83.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 122.1 m | 104.3 m | 116.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 236.3 m | 268.7 m | 306.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 315.8 m | 346.9 m | 354.5 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 343.8 m | 346.4 m | 346.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 105.2 m | 88.9 m | 110.3 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 18.8 m | 11.4 m | 11.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 86.4 m ≈ | 77.5 m ≈ | 98.6 m ≈ | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -30.0 m | -40.5 m | -44.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -73.2 m | -42.9 m | -64.2 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 19.8 m | 17.2 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 5.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 69 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 308.5 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality57
- Returns100
- Balance sheet24
- Valuation91
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 69/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.2% | 42 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.4% | 40 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 316.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.8x | 35 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.0x | 83 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 32.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 17.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CARD FACTORY PLC (CARD.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-01-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 582.7 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth 7.4%; net margin 5.4%; ROE 8.9%.
The estimated value range is 1.00–1.55 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.28 GBP, the price of 0.89 GBP leaves a potential of 44.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 30.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 316.0%
- P/E (TTM): 10.0x
- FCF yield: 32.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 17.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| CARD.LCard Factory PLC | 308.5 m | 10.0 | 8.9% | 5.4% | +7.4% | −9% / −10% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CARD.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.55 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 0.97 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 1.45 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 0.56 Total return -26% · Per year -10% | 1.12 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 1.84 Total return 125% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 0.58 Total return -17% · Per year -4% | 1.29 Total return 71% · Per year 11% | 2.32 Total return 196% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 0.28
- Net margin± 0.20
- Annual revenue growth± 0.16
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Card Factory is the leading UK card retailer expanding into a broader celebrations business, with a store network, wholesale partnerships and a digital arm enlarged by the Funky Pigeon acquisition 1. In fiscal 2026 the company reported revenue of 582.7 million pounds, while weak high street footfall tests its growth model 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Vertical integration from design to distribution gives control over costs, availability and margins.
- Leadership in UK cards, supported by a broad store network and an in-house print facility.
- Solid cash generation and a balance sheet described as robust, enabling investment and share buybacks.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on high street store traffic, which fell in the second half of fiscal 2026.
- The digital channel remains small relative to stores, and the Funky Pigeon integration is still under way.
- Group emissions have risen with acquisitions, and management plans to reset the emissions baseline.
Opportunities
- Expansion into adjacent categories such as gifts and celebration essentials could raise share of celebration spend.
- Growth in wholesale partnerships in North America could open new markets.
- Synergies from the Funky Pigeon integration could improve the profitability of the digital channel.
Threats
- Cost-of-living pressure could further reduce discretionary spending by customers.
- Geopolitical tensions could raise transport and energy costs if efficiency measures do not offset them.
- Competition from general retailers and online platforms could hinder recovery of market share.
Risks
- Weak high street spendinghigh
Lower store traffic and spending could weigh on revenue and adjusted profit, especially in the second half.
- Cost pressureshigh
Transport, energy and fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict could exceed expectations, even if the efficiency programme partly offsets them.
- Funky Pigeon integrationmedium
If the acquisition integration does not deliver the planned synergies, the digital channel could fall short of expectations.
- Currency and energy exposurelow
Hedging positions provide visibility but do not remove risk for periods that are not covered.
- ESG compliance and climate changemedium
Resetting the emissions baseline and including acquired emissions could change reduction targets and investor attention.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If vertical integration keeps prices competitive and margins stable, the company could grow its share of celebration spending.
- Cash generation and a solid balance sheet could support investment in stores, digital and partnerships, as well as shareholder returns.
- International expansion and wholesale growth could diversify revenue sources beyond the UK.
What would break the thesis
- If high street traffic stays weak, store revenue could stagnate and growth targets could be hard to reach.
- Transport and energy cost pressures could erode margins, particularly if the efficiency programme does not fully offset them.
- A lower recommendation score and rising competition could affect customer loyalty and market share.
What to watch
- Group total sales growth in the first quarters of fiscal 2027 compared with the prior yearQ1 2027
- Progress of the Funky Pigeon integration and delivery of the announced synergies2027
- Execution of the share buyback programme and its effect on capital2027
- The new emissions baseline and revised reduction targetsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Card Factory builds its model on vertical integration: design, manufacturing at its Baildon print facility and distribution are controlled in-house, supporting consistent pricing and speed to market 1. The sales network includes 1,117 stores in the UK and Republic of Ireland, plus digital and wholesale partnerships in South Africa, the Republic of Ireland, the USA and other markets 1. The group employs about 8,682 colleagues worldwide 1.
Segments
Physical stores
UK and Irish stores remain the main customer touchpoint, and in the second half their performance was hit by softer high street footfall 1. The company is expanding into underpenetrated locations and optimising space for gifts and celebration essentials 1.
Digital and wholesale
The Funky Pigeon acquisition extends the digital channel and personalised card capability, while wholesale partnerships grow with the South Africa business and, planned, North America via Garven 1. Wholesale revenue rose 113.4% in fiscal 2026 1.
International
Operations in South Africa and Garven complement UK manufacturing and distribution, and the group aims to grow in overseas markets as part of its expansion strategy 1.
Market context
The UK greeting card and celebration market is large, resilient and fragmented, and recurring life events support long-term demand 1. The company says it grew its share of the physical UK card market in the fourth quarter despite more cautious consumer spending 1.
Cost-of-living pressures and lower footfall weigh on discretionary spending, and management expects Middle East tensions to affect transport and energy costs 1.
Trends
- More cautious discretionary spendingheadwind
Cost-of-living pressures reduced consumer confidence and store traffic, especially in the second half of fiscal 2026 1.
- Extension into celebrations beyond cardstailwind
Demand for gifts and celebration essentials is growing, and the company is widening its offer to capture a larger share of celebration spend 1.
- Transport and energy costsheadwind
The Middle East conflict could raise direct input costs such as container rates and energy and fuel surcharges 1.
- Online and omnichannel shoppingmixed
Digital acquisitions and omnichannel integration could attract new shopping missions if the Funky Pigeon integration progresses as planned 1.
Competitive position
Card Factory bases its position on scale, vertical integration and value-led pricing, which the company says competitors find hard to replicate 1. Competition includes non-specialist high street retailers and other card shops, and the company tracks customer perception of value and quality 1.
Management acknowledges that a changing competitive landscape and a lower Net Promoter Score reflect pressure on brand perception, although most value and satisfaction outcomes remain stable 1.
- Non-specialist high street retailers
General retailers selling cards and celebration items compete for the same spend; the source does not name specific firms.
- Independent card shops
Small local retailers compete in the physical card segment; the source does not detail these firms.
- Online gift platforms
Online gift and personalisation sellers compete with the company's digital channel; the source names no specific players.
- Card wholesale suppliers
Competitors in wholesale partnerships in other countries; the source does not identify the firms.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202520 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Card Factory plc · 31 Jan 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.