olivLaw · European equity research
Carmila CARM.PA
France · Euronext Paris · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Carmila is a French-listed real estate company specialised in shopping centres and retail parks attached to Carrefour hypermarkets in France, Spain and Italy. Its portfolio, widened by the integration of Galimmo assets, includes 251 shopping centres valued at 6.7 billion euros, and the partnership with Carrefour is its main competitive advantage.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Carmila (CARM.PA) stock was 15.32 EUR (−0.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.2 bn EUR, P/E 6.9 on diluted EPS of 2.21 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 7.83%, beta 0.36, 52-week range 14.14–18.52 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 14.01 – 15.21
- above the upper band · %B 1.09 · band width 8.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 14.87 / 16.35
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.08 / -0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.5% | −0.6% | +6.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.0% | −4.2% | −5.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.9% | +4.3% | −14.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.9% | +7.5% | −17.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.8% | +9.9% | −15.7 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | +12.2% | +49.8% | −37.7 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | +14.0% | +42.8% | −28.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.2, median 8.8, max 779.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 219.3 m | 2.8 m | 313.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −98.7% | +11,197.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.52 | 0.02 | 2.21 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −98.7% | +10,950.0% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 154.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 2.7 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 2.5 bn EUR
- Equity
- 3.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 6.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.78x
- Current ratio
- 1.22x
- ROE
- 9.4%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 222.1 m | 9.5 m | 315.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 2.5 m | 6.7 m | 1.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 219.3 m | 2.8 m | 313.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.52 | 0.02 | 2.21 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 144.4 m | 142.8 m | 141.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.20 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 356.7 m | 860.2 m | 154.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 537.5 m | 1.0 bn | 344.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 6.5 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 75.7 m | 574.5 m | — | esef· 18 Mar 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 240.9 m | 734.0 m | 283.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 144.3 m | 138.9 m | 142.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 322.3 m | 276.1 m | 296.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Investing cash flow | 31.7 m | 56.7 m | -229.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -235.5 m | 170.8 m | -772.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 143.9 m | 167.0 m | 171.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.32 – 65.17 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E25.39 – 65.17 (Mid 39.33)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)16.32 – 22.25 (Mid 18.83)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 35 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.9x | 88 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial35/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial88/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Carmila (CARM.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 9.4%.
The estimated value range is 20.86–43.71 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.08 EUR, the price of 15.32 EUR leaves a potential of 89.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 47.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 6.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CARM.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Carmila is a French-listed real estate company specialised in shopping centres and retail parks attached to Carrefour hypermarkets in France, Spain and Italy. Its portfolio, widened by the integration of Galimmo assets, includes 251 shopping centres valued at 6.7 billion euros, and the partnership with Carrefour is its main competitive advantage.
SWOT
Strengths
- The strategic partnership with Carrefour gives access to assets, to a large customer network and to coordinated renovation and extension projects.
- A large portfolio of shopping centres and retail parks across three countries offers geographic and asset diversification.
- Predetermined land prices and a 50/50 margin split create a predictable framework for development.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a single partner, Carrefour, concentrates commercial and legal risk in the company.
- Many assets are jointly owned, which can complicate decisions and the sharing of income.
- Service-sector stakes are minority holdings and contribute little to results compared with the real estate core.
Opportunities
- Joint extensions and renovations could raise rents and the appeal of existing centres.
- Acquisitions from Carrefour, using knowledge of catchment areas, could bring new assets with added value.
- Developing 5G antennas on existing sites could generate extra income without large investment.
Threats
- Changes in Carrefour's strategy, including after 2027, could affect the terms of the partnership.
- Online commerce could reduce customer footfall in shopping centres and pressure rents.
- Tighter financing conditions could slow renovation and development programmes.
Risks
- Dependence on Carrefourhigh
Most assets are tied to Carrefour hypermarkets, and a change in that partner's strategy could affect footfall and joint projects.
- Expiry of the agreementmedium
The Renovation and Development Agreement is extended to December 2027, and terms after that date are not yet set, which could create uncertainty.
- Integration of Galimmomedium
Absorbing the new assets may face operational difficulties and may take time to produce the expected results.
- Online competition and consumer shiftsmedium
Changes in buying behaviour could reduce demand for physical retail space and pressure rents.
- Environmental and climate riskslow
Assets exposed to climate events or environmental regulation could require additional investment.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the partnership with Carrefour remains stable after 2027, Carmila could keep a rare asset position with privileged access to extension projects.
- The integration of Galimmo assets could add scale and recurring income if returns are confirmed.
- Sharing costs and margins 50/50 could support developments with controlled risk.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on a single partner could become a vulnerability if the relationship changes when the agreement expires.
- Online commerce and shifting consumer habits could reduce footfall and rents in shopping centres.
- Jointly owned assets can slow decisions and limit flexibility in sales or refurbishments.
What to watch
- Progress of negotiations on extending the Renovation and Development Agreement2027
- Results of integrating Galimmo assets and returns on the new centresnext 10-K
- Pace of joint extension and renovation projects with Carrefour2027
- Level of rents and occupancy rates in shopping centresQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Carmila is a listed real estate company under the SIIC tax regime, dedicated to managing and enhancing shopping centres and retail parks, largely located next to Carrefour stores 1. The group covers the full asset value chain, from asset management and leasing to specialty leasing, omnichannel marketing, centre management and investment in renovations, extensions and acquisitions 1. The integration of Galimmo assets, linked to Carrefour's acquisition of Cora and Match, expanded the portfolio to 251 shopping centres, retail parks and 5G antennas across the three countries, valued at 6.7 billion euros 1.
The business model rests on co-ownership with Carrefour: Carmila owns about 45% of the shopping centres attached to Carrefour hypermarkets in the three countries 1. The partnership is governed by a Renovation and Development Agreement, signed in April 2014 and extended to 31 December 2027 1.
Operations rely on services provided by Carrefour group entities, including co-promotion, delegated project management and property management, which allows cost optimisation and aligned interests in joint projects 1.
Segments
Shopping centres attached to hypermarkets
The core segment comprises shopping centres co-owned with Carrefour, whose renovations are partly financed equally and whose development margin is split 50/50, with a predetermined land price of 150 euros per square metre for shopping centres 1.
Retail parks and 5G antennas
The portfolio also includes retail parks, with a predetermined land price of 75 euros per square metre in development projects under the agreement, as well as 5G antennas located on the same sites 1.
Market context
The reference market is that of proximity shopping centres and retail parks in France, Spain and Italy, where Carmila competes through its location beside Carrefour hypermarkets, a traffic advantage new entrants find hard to replicate 1. The Carrefour network, with more than 15,000 stores in over 40 countries, supports customer flows and its own local leadership 1.
Growth depends on the ability to renovate and extend assets within the partnership, where financing rules and margin sharing provide a predictable framework until 2027, but concentration on one partner remains a structural dependency 1.
Trends
- Extension of the Carrefour agreementmixed
Extending the renovation and development partnership to 2027 gives continuity to joint projects, but any change in Carrefour's strategy could alter the pace of investment.
- Integration of Galimmo assetsmixed
Expanding the portfolio to 251 centres and 6.7 billion euros of assets increases scale, but requires operational integration and attention to the returns on new acquisitions.
- Growth through extensionstailwind
Predetermined land prices and costs shared 50/50 could make extensions faster and cheaper for Carmila, if commercial demand supports the new space.
- Proximity consumption and online retailheadwind
Changes in consumer behaviour, including the pressure of online commerce, could reduce footfall in shopping centres and weigh on rents.
Competitive position
Carmila is compared with other European real estate companies specialised in shopping centres, which compete for tenants and quality assets. Its distinctive advantage is its share of roughly 45% of the centres attached to Carrefour, which is hard to match for competitors without a comparable retail partner 1.
Competition also comes from other retail formats, such as independent shopping centres and online platforms, which could draw tenants or customers if the appeal of attached centres declines.
- Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield
Large European shopping centre group with a premium portfolio and competition for tenants in major cities.
- Klepierre
European shopping centre operator with assets in France, Spain and Italy, relevant for the same tenant base.
- Vastned
European retail real estate company, comparable by property type but with a different geographic exposure.
- Eurocommercial Properties
Owner of shopping centres in Italy and other European countries, competing in markets where Carmila is present.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202318 Mar 2024
- Annual report 202218 Mar 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Carmila · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.