olivLaw · European equity research
Caffyns plc CFYN.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0001615219 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Caffyns plc is a motor dealer and aftersales business in south-east England representing nine franchises. In fiscal 2026 turnover fell to £270.7 million, and the company posted a loss before tax as new car volumes dropped and costs stayed high.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Caffyns plc (CFYN.L) stock was 4.75 GBP (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 15.0 m GBP, dividend yield 1.82%, beta -7.31, 52-week range 0.04–5.45 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.49 – 5.27
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.34 · band width 16.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.38 / 4.77
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.08 / 0.13
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.8% | +0.4% | −13.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | unavailable | −3.3% | unavailable | — |
| 6 months | unavailable | +4.0% | unavailable | — |
| Year to date | +14.5% | +8.1% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | unavailable | +10.7% | unavailable | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −13.6% | +50.1% | −63.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +43.6% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 262.1 m | 275.5 m | 270.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.1% | −1.7% |
| Net income | -1.2 m | 176.0 k | -1.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −830.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.44 | 0.06 | -0.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −735.9% |
| net % | -0.5% | 0.1% | -0.5% |
| Free cash flow | -2.5 m | -1.4 m | 1.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 4.6 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 29.9 m GBP
- Total assets
- 108.8 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.03x
- ROE
- -4.3%
- ROA
- -1.2%
- FCF margin
- 0.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 262.1 m | 275.5 m | 270.7 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 230.4 m | 240.8 m | 236.9 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 31.7 m | 34.7 m | 33.8 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.5 m | 3.5 m | 1.5 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 2.7 m | 2.9 m | 3.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.5 m | 246.0 k | -1.7 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | -341.0 k | 70.0 k | -435.0 k | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.2 m | 176.0 k | -1.3 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.44 | 0.06 | -0.41 | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.09 | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 438.0 k | 3.8 m | 4.6 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | 7.3 m | 10.1 m | 10.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | 42.3 m | 44.4 m | 52.4 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | 50.3 m | 58.4 m | 66.9 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 38.7 m | 38.1 m | 37.2 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 286.0 k | 286.0 k | 286.0 k | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | 99.5 m | 101.7 m | 108.8 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 47.5 m | 53.9 m | 64.7 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 70.8 m | 71.8 m | 79.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 28.7 m | 29.9 m | 29.9 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.7 m | 2.8 m | 3.2 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 119.0 k | -303.0 k | 2.5 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.6 m | 1.1 m | 827.0 k | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -2.5 m ≈ | -1.4 m ≈ | 1.7 m ≈ | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.3 m | 3.8 m | -567.0 k | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.6 m | -208.0 k | -1.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 539.0 k | 273.0 k | 273.0 k | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 195.0 k | 0 | — | esef· 15 Jul 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 15.0 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.5% | 26 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.8% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 16.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial26/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns56/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CAFFYNS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (CFYN.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 270.7 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth -1.7%; net margin -0.5%; ROE -4.3%.
The estimated value range is 0.85–1.05 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.94 GBP, the price of 4.75 GBP leaves a potential of -80.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -407.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 11.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 16.0%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -0.5%
- Interest coverage: 0.5x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| CFYN.LCaffyns Public Limited Company | 15.0 m | — | -4.3% | -0.5% | −1.7% | 0% / −5% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CFYN.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Caffyns plc is a motor dealer and aftersales business in south-east England representing nine franchises. In fiscal 2026 turnover fell to £270.7 million 1, and the company posted a loss before tax as new car volumes dropped and costs stayed high.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Economic conditionshigh
A worsening UK economy could reduce profitability, particularly through interest rates, inflation and consumer confidence 1.
- Bank covenantshigh
If HSBC covenant tests are not met, facilities could become repayable on demand and put the going concern assessment at risk 1.
- Manufacturer dependencemedium
Franchises are granted by manufacturers and can be terminated, and reduced marketing programmes could hurt sales 1.
- Used car pricesmedium
A rapid fall in used car prices could reduce profits and lead to write-downs of inventory 1.
- Pension schememedium
Weaker investment returns or higher liabilities could widen the deficit and increase future contributions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If new Chinese brands and electric vehicles reach higher volumes, the company could recover new car sales through a broader portfolio 1.
- If used car and aftersales sales keep growing, steadier revenue could support profitability 1.
- Freehold property could offer flexibility through reinvestment or disposal of assets 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Meeting the quarterly EBITDA hurdles for HSBC covenant compliance2027
- Results of the triennial valuation of the pension scheme at 31 March 2026by June 2027
- Development of the zero-emission vehicle share against the 33% target2026
- Discussions on adding further Chinese brands to the portfolionext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Caffyns is one of the leading motor retail and aftersales companies in the south-east of England, with principal activities in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 1. The company represents nine franchises, including Audi, CUPRA, MG, SEAT, Skoda, Volkswagen and Volvo 1. It generally operates from freehold properties, which it says gives a strong asset base and minimal exposure to rent reviews 1.
Segments
Market context
UK new car registrations rose by 3% to 2.05 million, helped by new Chinese brands entering the market, although customers remained cautious with discretionary spending 1. The zero-emission vehicle share was below the minimum target set for 2026 1.
Inflationary pressures and high interest rates continued to weigh on the sector's cost base 1. If ZEV targets remain hard to meet, manufacturers could face penalties, which could influence their range and pricing 1.
Trends
- Entry of new Chinese brandsmixed
New Chinese brands lifted total market volumes but took share from the brands Caffyns represents, weighing on new car sales 1. The company is in discussions that could add further Chinese brands 1.
- Transition to electric vehiclesmixed
ZEV targets and the planned end of solus petrol and diesel powertrains could change demand and residual values, but may also reduce aftersales revenue as electric vehicles need less maintenance 1.
- Growing interest in electric carstailwind
Retail enquiry for electric cars has increased as offers became more attractive, although much demand still comes through the fleet channel 1.
- Costs and financingheadwind
Energy costs, inflation and high interest rates have pressured profitability, and bank facilities depend on meeting covenant tests 1.
Competitive position
Caffyns competes with other franchised dealers, private sellers, internet-based dealers, independent service shops and manufacturers that have entered the retail market 1. The main competitive factors are price, reputation, customer service and knowledge of brands and models 1.
New Chinese brand entrants have pressured sales of the traditional marques the company represents 1. Diversification across marques, used cars and aftersales is the company's main response 1.
- Franchised dealers in south-east England
Local dealers selling the same or similar marques, competing directly on price and service 1.
- Online used car sellers
Platforms competing in the used car segment through an online customer experience 1.
- Independent service and repair shops
Workshops competing on maintenance and repairs, particularly for older vehicles 1.
- Manufacturers entering retail directly
Manufacturers selling directly to customers, which could reduce the role of traditional dealers 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202515 Jul 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Caffyns plc · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.