olivLaw · European equity research
Costain Group PLC COST.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B64NSP76 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Costain is a UK engineering and construction group working mainly on public infrastructure in transport, water, energy and defence. The company is growing its consultancy arm, which reached 17% of Group revenues in fiscal 2025, at a time when the government has set out multi-year infrastructure investment plans.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Costain Group PLC (COST.L) stock was 2.50 GBP (−2.35% on the day), with market capitalisation 669.5 m GBP, P/E 18.2 on diluted EPS of 0.14 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.09%, beta 0.74, 52-week range 1.45–2.64 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.40 – 2.66
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.37 · band width 10.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.46 / 2.09
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.03 / 0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.6% | −0.6% | −0.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +15.8% | −4.2% | +19.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +27.6% | +4.3% | +23.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +56.3% | +7.5% | +48.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +64.4% | +9.9% | +54.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +402.0% | +49.8% | +352.2 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +331.7% | +42.8% | +288.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.1, median 9.5, max 11.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −6.1% | −16.4% |
| Net income | 22.1 m | 30.6 m | 37.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +38.5% | +21.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +42.3% | +23.4% |
| net % | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% |
| Free cash flow | 69.8 m | 37.2 m | 49.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 189.3 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 258.2 m GBP
- Total assets
- 561.9 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.44x
- ROE
- 15.1%
- ROA
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 4.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 931.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 104.8 m | 103.3 m | 113.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 26.8 m | 31.1 m | 44.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 3.9 m | 3.9 m | 4.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 30.9 m | 36.5 m | 48.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 8.8 m | 5.9 m | 10.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 22.1 m | 30.6 m | 37.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.14 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 164.4 m | 158.5 m | 189.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 198.3 m | 185.3 m | 191.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 398.1 m | 392.5 m | 411.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 26.8 m | 35.3 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 542.2 m | 547.2 m | 561.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 306.6 m | 296.9 m | 286.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 322.8 m | 311.5 m | 303.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 219.4 m | 235.7 m | 258.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 272.8 m | 270.8 m | 268.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 69.8 m | 42.7 m | 51.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 0 | 5.5 m | 1.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 69.8 m ≈ | 37.2 m ≈ | 49.9 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -100.0 k | -9.0 m | -2.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -15.0 m | -25.6 m | -30.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.1 m | 3.2 m | 7.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 669.5 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.6% | 34 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 133.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.2x | 28 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.5% | 93 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.1% | 16 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 14.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet81/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns49/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation57/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
COSTAIN GROUP PLC (COST.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.0 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -16.4%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 15.1%.
The estimated value range is 1.55–2.39 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.98 GBP, the price of 2.50 GBP leaves a potential of -20.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -26.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 133.8%
- Interest coverage: 10.7x
- FCF yield: 7.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 14.6%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 18.2x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| COST.LCostain Group PLC | 669.5 m | 18.2 | 15.1% | 3.6% | −16.4% | +62% / +302% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for COST.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.35 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 2.40 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 3.64 Total return 47% · Per year 47% |
| 3 years | 1.07 Total return -55% · Per year -23% | 2.17 Total return -10% · Per year -3% | 3.64 Total return 50% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 0.85 Total return -63% · Per year -18% | 1.96 Total return -17% · Per year -4% | 3.64 Total return 52% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 0.54
- Net margin± 0.38
- Annual revenue growth± 0.34
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Costain is a UK engineering and construction group working mainly on public infrastructure in transport, water, energy and defence. The company is growing its consultancy arm, which reached 17% of Group revenues in fiscal 2025 1, at a time when the government has set out multi-year infrastructure investment plans 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Long-term strategic contracts with Tier 1 customers that give visibility over workload.
- Adjusted margins that exceeded declared targets in recent fiscal years.
- A growing consultancy component that diversifies revenue away from pure construction.
Weaknesses
- Declining Transportation revenue due to completed historic projects and HS2 delays.
- Exposure to contracts where customers transfer more risk, which could hurt results if costs rise.
- A rise in the lost time injury rate in fiscal 2025 after a record year.
Opportunities
- Multi-year public investment announced in water, energy, aviation and defence.
- Higher investment in local roads and housing-related infrastructure.
- Expansion of consultancy services to existing customers.
Threats
- Intense pricing competition in public tenders that could pressure margins.
- Changes in government or customer investment priorities.
- Cost pressures from materials, energy and currency if not recovered contractually.
Risks
- Safety of employees and third partieshigh
Work takes place in complex and hazardous environments, and an incident could cause injury, loss of contracts and penalties.
- Dependence on customer investment planshigh
Unforeseen changes in public customers' priorities could affect live contracts and the future pipeline.
- Contract and economic risksmedium
More onerous contract terms and volatile material costs could lead to financial losses.
- Delivery of complex projectsmedium
Delays in planning or mobilisation could affect customers and the company's delivery reputation.
- Supply chain performancelow
Problems with subcontractors or product quality could affect delivery and contracts.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the multi-year public investment announced materialises, workload and revenue visibility could increase.
- If the consultancy share keeps rising, the company could see steadier revenue and better margins.
- Long relationships with strategic customers could support new awards without intense price competition.
What would break the thesis
- If public programmes are delayed, work could fall short of expectations, as the HS2 rescheduling showed.
- Pricing pressure and risk transfer to contractors could reduce margins.
- A higher injury rate could bring costs and restrictions on future contracts.
What to watch
- Delivery of the guided adjusted operating margin of around 4.0% in fiscal 20262026
- Trend in revenue and the forward work positionnext half-year results
- Progress of AMP8 water programmes and HS2 work in the Transportation division2026
- Pace of government investment in water, energy and aviation2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Costain describes its business as differentiated by seeking to meet customers' broader business needs, not just the construction and maintenance of their capital infrastructure 1. It operates in four key UK markets: transport, water, energy and defence, covering work from design and construction through to operation, maintenance and decommissioning 1. Many contracts are strategic five-to-ten-year programmes with Tier 1 customers 1.
The model combines construction contracts with consultancy services, and consultancy's rising share of revenue could support margin stability if the trend holds 1. The company says its adjusted margins are industry leading and that it exceeded its margin targets in fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 1.
Costain also emphasises sustainability credentials, which customers consider when awarding work, including safety and emissions performance 1. The company reported a rise in its lost time injury rate in fiscal 2025, although other safety metrics improved 1.
Segments
Market context
The UK government has published a 10-year infrastructure strategy and pipeline that gives greater clarity on £725bn of investment 1. Committed investment is large in water (£104bn for 2025-2030), aviation, defence and nuclear energy, which Costain sees as medium-term opportunities 1.
The company cautions that not all of these investments are addressable by Costain and that demand depends on customer plans, which can change 1. Higher investment in local roads and energy could open further opportunities if projects proceed on the announced timetable 1.
Trends
- Government infrastructure investmenttailwind
The government's 10-year strategy and investment plans give medium-term visibility for infrastructure work 1.
- Water investment after AMP8tailwind
Water industry capital programmes are forecast to be much larger than in the previous cycle, supporting workload 1.
- Rail project delaysheadwind
Rescheduling of the HS2 programme moved work into later years and reduced Transportation revenue in fiscal 2025 1.
- Pricing pressure and risk transfermixed
Pricing competition is intense and customers are transferring more risk to contractors, which could weigh on margins if costs rise 1.
Competitive position
Costain operates in a competitive UK market for public contracts and consultancy, where competition turns on price and delivery capability. The source does not name competitors, and the company treats loss of contracts and pricing pressure as ongoing risks 1.
The company's stated edge lies in long-term strategic relationships with customers and a strong forward work position, which help protect its margins 1. If these relationships deepen, its competitive position could be harder for rivals to match.
- UK construction and engineering contractors
The source does not name competitors individually and describes competition in general terms.
- Technical infrastructure consultancies
Competition for consultancy contracts is not detailed in the source.
- Water programme contractors
Water industry work is contested by several suppliers, per the general description in the report.
- Nuclear energy and defence contractors
The nuclear and defence sectors have other suppliers, but the source does not name them.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Costain Group PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.