olivLaw · European equity research
Covivio Hotels COVH.PA
France · Euronext Paris · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Covivio Hotels is a European hotel real estate company that owns hotels leased to operators such as Accor, IHG and Marriott, mainly under murs et fonds or lease structures. In 2025 its portfolio value rose 3.7% at constant scope, and the company is repositioning its hotels and expanding in Southern Europe amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Covivio Hotels (COVH.PA) stock was 20.40 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.2 bn EUR, P/E 10.3 on diluted EPS of 1.99 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 7.35%, beta 0.22, 52-week range 19.75–24.50 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.69 – 20.98
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 6.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 20.96 / 22.46
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.13 / -0.20
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.0% | −0.6% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.5% | −4.2% | −6.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.9% | +4.3% | −15.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.5% | +7.5% | −18.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.1% | +9.9% | −18.0 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | +22.2% | +49.8% | −27.7 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | +25.9% | +42.8% | −16.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 11.5, median 12.6, max 13.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -11.6 m | 224.6 m | 307.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +37.0% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | 1.52 | 1.99 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +30.9% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 337.5 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 2.2 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.8 bn EUR
- Equity
- 3.9 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 6.8 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.56x
- Current ratio
- 1.81x
- ROE
- 8.2%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 87.4 m | 346.8 m | 374.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -59.9 m | 267.2 m | 309.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -34.6 m | 30.5 m | -9.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -11.6 m | 224.6 m | 307.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | 1.52 | 1.99 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.30 | 1.50 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 108.8 m | 577.0 m | 337.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.4 m | 2.8 m | 2.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 432.8 m | 801.3 m | 477.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 117.4 m | 325.0 m | 324.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 200.0 k | 900.0 k | 1.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.7 bn | 7.2 bn | 6.8 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 425.9 m | 756.5 m | 263.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 145.0 m | 147.8 m | 154.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
25% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 20.40 – 58.69 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E22.86 – 58.69 (Mid 35.42)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)20.40 – 27.82 (Mid 23.54)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.7% | 41 (vs peers) | 42% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 84 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.3x | 79 (vs peers) | 42% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial84/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial41/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial79/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
COVIVIO HOTELS (COVH.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 8.6%.
The estimated value range is 21.63–43.25 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.48 EUR, the price of 20.40 EUR leaves a potential of 44.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 30.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- P/E (TTM): 10.3x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for COVH.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Covivio Hotels is a European hotel real estate company that owns hotels leased to operators such as Accor, IHG and Marriott, mainly under murs et fonds or lease structures. In 2025 its portfolio value rose 3.7% at constant scope, and the company is repositioning its hotels and expanding in Southern Europe amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Geographically and segment-diversified portfolio with prime locations and good guest ratings on booking platforms 1.
- Long-term contracts with large operators with solid financial bases, giving visibility on revenue 1.
- Demonstrated ability to deliver and reposition hotels, including renovation projects with estimated high returns 1.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on real estate assets, which make up most of the balance sheet, so a fall in values directly affects financial position 1.
- Part of revenue is exposed to tourism activity through murs et fonds contracts, which makes results more volatile 1.
- Tenant arrears have risen in recent years, although they remain manageable 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion in Southern Europe, where hotel prices are rising, and the planned lease acquisitions in Italy and Spain could add revenue 1.
- The hotel repositioning programme could lift EBITDA and asset values if execution follows plan 1.
- Green investments and alignment with ESG standards could attract tenants and investors focused on sustainability 1.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and a possible slowdown in international tourism could reduce guest flows and variable revenue 1.
- Higher energy and labour costs could squeeze operator margins and, indirectly, the company's 1.
- Adverse moves in interest rates or exchange rates could complicate financing and compliance with bank covenants 1.
Risks
- Decline in hotel activityhigh
An unfavourable geopolitical environment, terrorism, social unrest or pandemics could abruptly reduce variable revenue and hotel rents 1.
- Real estate valuation trendshigh
A fall or stagnation in values and rents could reduce adjusted net asset value and limit acquisition and disposal strategy 1.
- Financial difficulties of tenantsmedium
If hotel operators face financial problems, arrears, vacancy and cuts to tenant works plans could follow 1.
- Climate-related risksmedium
Physical risks such as flooding and transition risks linked to emission reduction could affect asset attractiveness and value 1.
- Financing and tax framework riskslow
An adverse evolution of interest rates and of the SIIC regime could affect liquidity and returns 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A well-diversified portfolio with long leases and strong operators could support revenue and asset value growth, especially if the Southern Europe trend continues 1.
- The repositioning programme and Southern European acquisitions could add above-average yields and renew the portfolio 1.
- The 2025 results, with higher revenue and portfolio value, show the business model can create value even in a volatile context 1.
What would break the thesis
- Exposure to tourism activity and geopolitical tensions could quickly reduce variable revenue if international flows slow 1.
- The dominant weight of real estate assets on the balance sheet means a fall in values could directly affect net asset value and the ability to execute strategy 1.
- Energy and staffing costs could erode margins, and the capex needed for repositioning could delay expected returns 1.
What to watch
- Development of variable revenue and RevPAR in Southern EuropeQ1 2027
- Progress of the lease hotel acquisitions in Italy and Spain2027
- Completion of repositioning works for the 14 hotels2026-2028
- Level of tenant arrears and interest rate developments in the annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Covivio Hotels holds a high-quality European hotel portfolio with prime locations in main tourist destinations, split across upscale, midscale and economy segments 1. Revenue combines fixed rents from lease contracts with variable components tied to turnover or EBITDA of hotels held in murs et fonds; the variable part reached 46.8% of total revenues in 2025 1. The company works with large operators with solid financial bases, which reduces counterparty risk 1.
The core activity is active asset management: renovations, brand repositioning and delivery of new hotels for existing partners such as B&B or Radisson 1. Appraisal value of buildings of 5.7 bn EUR accounts for about 88% of balance sheet assets, so valuation changes have a direct effect on the balance sheet 1. Group share net result for 2025 was 308 M EUR versus 225 M EUR in 2024, supported by revenue growth and asset appreciation 1.
Segments
Hotels in murs et fonds
Hotels held in murs et fonds generate variable income linked to operating performance; this revenue rose to 161.9 M EUR in 2025 after full-year inclusion of the Essendi acquisition 1. Exposure to tourism activity makes this segment more sensitive to the cycle than lease assets 1.
Market context
European hotel performance grew 1.7% on average in 2025, supported by price increases in Southern Europe, where Spain and Italy posted the strongest RevPAR gains 1. Hotel investment in Europe rose in 2025 to 23 bn EUR according to figures cited in the report 1. The market remains exposed to geopolitical tensions and a possible slowdown in international tourism 1.
Market dynamics are uneven: Germany recorded a decline in average price while France saw a modest RevPAR increase 1. Hotel values in France and Southern Europe rose more strongly, pointing to opportunities to create value from assets through renovation 1.
Trends
- Geopolitical tensions and international tourismheadwind
Tensions between the EU and the USA and instability in the Middle East could reduce international tourist flows and hotel attendance, although no significant impact on activity had been observed so far 1.
- Rising hotel prices in Southern Europetailwind
Average prices in Spain and Italy rose significantly in 2025, supporting variable income and asset values in that region 1.
- Energy and labour costsheadwind
Energy prices remain above pre-crisis levels and the hotel labour shortage increases operating costs; a rise in energy costs could reduce EBITDA 1.
- Interest rates and a clearer tax frameworkmixed
Tax risk has eased after clarifications in the 2026 Finance Law on the SIIC regime, but the path of interest and exchange rates remains a source of uncertainty 1.
Competitive position
Covivio Hotels competes for hotels and contracts with large hotel groups and with real estate investors buying hotel assets in Europe 1. Its advantage lies in geographic diversification across 11 countries and in its brand mix, which allows it to use several contract types 1.
In the acquisition market, competition for assets in Southern Europe can influence prices, and the company aims to buy hotels with attractive fixed yields 1. Direct competitors beyond those named in the source are not identified in the document analysed 1.
- Accor
Hotel group that is also an operating partner of Covivio Hotels; can be both client and competitor in the European hotel market 1.
- InterContinental Hotels Group
Hotel operator named as a partner, present in the portfolio through premium brands; relevant to competition for operating contracts 1.
- Marriott International
Hotel group named among the brands in the portfolio; competes for the same investors and operators in Europe 1.
- Radisson Hotel Group
Operator with which the company signed a new lease in 2025; illustrates competition for contracts with hotel operators 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Covivio Hotels · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.