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olivLaw · European equity research

Capita plc CPI.L

United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BPCT7534 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom

2.56GBP−0.97% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Capita plc is a UK business process outsourcing and technology services provider for public sector and private clients, with pensions and contact centre operations. In fiscal 2025 revenue fell while adjusted operating profit rose, and the company aims to become an AI-enabled BPO provider, at a time when restructuring and cash flow remain central themes.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Capita plc (CPI.L) stock was 2.56 GBP (−0.97% on the day), with market capitalisation 291.5 m GBP, beta 0.44, 52-week range 2.01–4.08 GBP.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
291.5 m GBP
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.44 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-56.30%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.44
Volatility (1y) 61%
52-week range
2.014.08

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
45.8
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
2.38 – 3.17
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 28.7%
SMA 50 / 200
2.55 / 2.97
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.03 / 0.07
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyEURO STOXX 50vs EURO STOXX 50Vertical median
1 month+27.4%−0.6%+28.0 pp—
3 months+0.6%−4.2%+4.8 pp—
6 months−15.8%+4.3%−20.1 pp—
Year to date−36.9%+7.5%−44.4 pp—
1 year−16.5%+9.9%−26.4 pp+5.8%
3 years−5.0%+49.8%−54.8 pp+26.3%
5 years−63.6%+42.8%−106.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−50.7%
07 Jan 2026 → 06 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−76.1%
25 Nov 2021 → 09 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−18.3%
EURO STOXX 50 +7.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue2.8 bn2.4 bn2.3 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−14.0%−4.5%
Net income-178.1 m76.7 m-164.1 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable−314.0%
Diluted EPS-0.110.66-1.44
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−318.0%
net %-6.3%3.2%-7.1%
Free cash flow-69.1 m-41.8 m-4.8 m

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
264.1 m GBP
Financial debt
unavailable GBP
Net debt
unavailable GBP
Equity
41.8 m GBP
Total assets
1.7 bn GBP
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.54x
ROE
-138.2%
ROA
-9.2%
FCF margin
-0.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (GBP)

Margins

Income statement · GBP

Revenue
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.3 bn

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.2 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.8 bn

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
592.1 m
2024
516.5 m
2025
468.0 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-52.0 m
2024
-9.9 m
2025
-129.6 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
60.9 m
2024
56.3 m
2025
51.7 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-106.6 m
2024
116.6 m
2025
-170.9 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
74.0 m
2024
36.2 m
2025
-5.3 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
-178.1 m
2024
76.7 m
2025
-164.1 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.11
2024
0.66
2025
-1.44

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · GBP

Cash
2023
155.4 m
2024
253.6 m
2025
264.1 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Receivables
2023
350.7 m
2024
335.3 m
2025
350.2 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
583.9 m
2024
616.6 m
2025
624.6 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
80.0 m
2024
68.5 m
2025
57.5 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
495.7 m
2024
372.4 m
2025
300.1 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
90.0 m
2024
79.8 m
2025
97.6 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.0 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.7 bn

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
114.9 m
2024
195.7 m
2025
41.8 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
1.7 bn
2024
112.7 m
2025
113.9 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026derived

Cash flow · GBP

Operating cash flow
2023
-40.3 m
2024
-25.2 m
2025
4.7 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
28.8 m
2024
16.6 m
2025
9.5 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-69.1 m ≈
2024
-41.8 m ≈
2025
-4.8 m ≈

esef· 07 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
9.7 m
2024
201.2 m
2025
-43.7 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-76.3 m
2024
-51.5 m
2025
-28.5 m

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
600.0 k
2025
800.0 k

esef· 07 Apr 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
-314.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-318.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
20.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
-0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-132.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
-9.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-21.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-2.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.7 m GBP
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
9.5 m GBP
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-4.8 m GBP
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
54 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
291.5 m GBP
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-56.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
6.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

2.56 GBP

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 291.5 m GBP

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
291.5 m GBP
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
6.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-132.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
-7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
-4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: esefpublished 07 Apr 2026
verified 82derived 3

Score by group

31% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

    Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

    Risk-free rate
    6.5%
    Equity risk premium
    6.0%
    Beta (default)
    1.00
    Cost of equity
    12.5%
    Terminal growth
    3.0%

    Factor scorecard

    Insufficient data

    Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

    FactorValueScoreWeight used
    ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
    Net margin · Quality-7.1%23 (vs peers)20%
    FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
    Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
    EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
    Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
    Interest coverage · Balance sheet-2.5x0 (on a fixed band)20%
    Current ratio · Balance sheet0.5x0 (on a fixed band)13%
    P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
    EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
    FCF yield · Valuation-1.6%0 (on a fixed band)27%
    Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.3%4 (on a fixed band)20%
    Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

    Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

    Score groups

    • Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
    • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
    • Quality· partial23/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
    • Returns· partial4/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
    • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

    A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

    Memo

    CAPITA PLC (CPI.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

    Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -4.5%; net margin -7.1%; ROE -132.7%.

    Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

    Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

    Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

    What supports the thesis

    No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

    What contradicts it

    • Net margin: -7.1%
    • Interest coverage: -2.5x
    • Current ratio: 0.5x
    • FCF yield: -1.6%
    • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.3%

    Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

    Versus the vertical median

    Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies

    Multiples and returns vs the median

    P/E
    —
    vertical median 15.3x
    EV/EBITDA
    —
    vertical median —
    P/S
    0.1x
    vertical median 1.5x
    below median (−91.8%)
    P/B
    6.1x
    vertical median 2.2x
    above median (+184.6%)
    ROE
    -132.7%
    vertical median 14.4%
    below median (−1,023.6%)
    Net margin
    -7.1%
    vertical median 10.8%
    below median (−165.9%)
    EBIT margin
    -5.6%
    vertical median 22.9%
    below median (−124.4%)
    Revenue YoY
    -4.5%
    vertical median 7.9%
    below median (−157.3%)
    Net debt/EBITDA
    —
    vertical median —
    Dividend yield
    —
    vertical median 2.9%

    Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

    Companies in the vertical

    Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
    BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C.104.3 bn13.516.5%30.3%−1.0%+7% / +88%
    ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC14.7 bn14.39.2%5.3%−3.1%−5% / −15%
    0EV1.LCarnival PLC5.5 bn4.146.7%13.4%+6.4%unavailable / unavailable
    BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC5.1 bn24.734.7%4.1%+7.2%−10% / +158%
    AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC4.8 bn16.460.2%47.1%+3.9%−13% / −23%
    BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC4.2 bn16.323.2%2.8%+15.2%+20% / +160%
    ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC4.1 bn10.88.0%28.9%−2.1%+11% / +41%
    BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC3.6 bn11.38.8%13.4%−4.2%−0% / −22%
    BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC2.9 bn17.421.2%2.8%+3.7%+68% / −51%
    AJB.LAj Bell PLC2.4 bn22.849.9%33.1%+18.0%+8% / +128%
    ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC1.4 bn13.913.1%71.6%−0.1%+28% / +18%
    BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC1.2 bn23.215.8%57.6%+6.9%−99% / −99%
    APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC763.6 m36.241.2%19.7%+24.2%+71% / unavailable
    BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C.671.9 m14.414.4%10.8%+4.0%−7% / +26%
    ASC.LAsos PLC494.5 m—-81.3%-12.0%−14.7%+71% / +8%
    ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC486.8 m16.361.5%23.8%+15.3%−28% / +10%
    AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC344.3 m—-93.4%-39.2%−20.6%−45% / −85%
    CPI.LCapita PLC291.5 m—-132.7%-7.1%−4.5%−25% / −11%
    APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC111.3 m28.57.2%6.2%−7.3%−30% / −23%
    AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC9.9 m———−81.9%+325% / +844%
    ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC605.3 k—-19.1%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable
    AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC221.6 k0.127.5%9.1%+8.1%unavailable / unavailable
    AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC——24.1%10.6%+29.5%−7% / +164%
    AAL.LAnglo American PLC——-19.3%-20.2%+4.5%+30% / +76%
    ACG.LAcg Metals Limited——-80.3%-32.0%+134.8%+60% / +63%

    1- and 3-year price returns: for CPI.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

    olivLaw engine forecast

    The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

    The engine has no published run for this company yet.

    Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

    Illustrative scenarios

    Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

    Bear
    Allowed range: -50 … 50%
    Allowed range: -100 … 100%
    Allowed range: 0 … 100
    Allowed range: -10 … 20%
    Allowed range: 0 … 100%
    Base
    Allowed range: -50 … 50%
    Allowed range: -100 … 100%
    Allowed range: 0 … 100
    Allowed range: -10 … 20%
    Allowed range: 0 … 100%
    Bull
    Allowed range: -50 … 50%
    Allowed range: -100 … 100%
    Allowed range: 0 … 100
    Allowed range: -10 … 20%
    Allowed range: 0 … 100%
    Nothing is saved.

    Estimated price (GBP)

    Estimated priceBearBaseBull
    1 years
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    3 years
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    5 years
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    insufficient data
    Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
    What moves the 3-year price the most

      AI analysis

      AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

      In brief

      Capita plc is a UK business process outsourcing and technology services provider for public sector and private clients, with pensions and contact centre operations. In fiscal 2025 revenue fell while adjusted operating profit rose, and the company aims to become an AI-enabled BPO provider, at a time when restructuring and cash flow remain central themes.

      SWOT

      Strengths

      • The company has long-term contracts with public sector clients and a stable pensions client base, giving relatively predictable revenue.
      • Partnerships with major cloud and AI providers strengthen its capacity to innovate and deliver digital solutions.
      • Restructuring and cost reduction have significantly improved adjusted operating profit in the latest year.

      Weaknesses

      • Revenue declined in the latest year, and the contact centre segment remains loss making.
      • Free cash flow was negative in the latest year, and restructuring costs have pressured the balance sheet.
      • The company suffered a costly cyber incident that affected its reputation and led to fines and legal costs.

      Opportunities

      • AI adoption in client processes could create demand for automation services and managed AI agents.
      • Expected growth in Pension Solutions could offset declines elsewhere if contract mobilisation succeeds.
      • Sustainability commitments and cyber security expertise could open new contracts with public sector clients.

      Threats

      • Constrained public budgets and lengthy procurement processes can slow new contracts and reduce existing ones.
      • Competition from global providers and AI technologies can pressure prices and margins.
      • Cyber and data protection risks remain high and could lead to new penalties or loss of clients.

      Risks

      • Goodwill impairmenthigh

        Impairment testing highlighted a loss linked to the contact centre business. If performance does not improve, further impairments could arise.

      • Cash flowhigh

        The company had negative free cash flow in fiscal 2025, and the guidance for 2026 depends on completing restructuring and achieving cash conversion targets.

      • Cyber riskshigh

        The 2023 incident demonstrated system vulnerability. A new incident could lead to penalties, litigation and loss of contracts.

      • Dependence on the public sectormedium

        A significant share of revenue comes from contracts with public authorities, which can be renegotiated or reduced due to budget constraints.

      • Execution of the AI transformationmedium

        If AI implementation does not deliver the expected savings or revenue, the investments made could remain unrecovered.

      Investment thesis

      What would need to be true (bull case)

      • If restructuring continues to improve margins and Pension Solutions sustains its growth, profitability could keep rising.
      • If the company's AI platforms reach scale, they could win new contracts and improve productivity for clients.
      • A simplified capital structure and available credit lines could provide flexibility for future investment or distributions.

      What would break the thesis

      • If the contact centre segment keeps declining, operating losses could persist and may require further impairments.
      • If cash flow does not improve in line with guidance, the company could remain dependent on external financing.
      • If public budgets shrink or competition intensifies, margins could come under even greater pressure.

      What to watch

      • Delivery of guided low single-digit adjusted revenue growth and a slightly lower adjusted margin2026
      • Free cash flow excluding business exits and cash conversion versus guidance2026
      • Evolution of the Contact Centre segment and any further goodwill impairmentsnext 10-K
      • Progress in mobilising the Civil Service Pension Scheme contract and Synergy Business Process Services2026

      Products, market & competition

      AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

      The business

      During 2025 the company reduced headcount, exited underperforming activities and completed the exit from the closed book Life & Pensions business with Royal London. The 15-for-1 share consolidation and the cancellation of the share premium account of £1,145.5m changed the balance sheet structure and increased distributable reserves. Available liquidity at year end was £329.4m, including an undrawn revolving credit facility of £250.0m.

      The annual report also includes responsible business reporting, with lower emissions intensity, targets validated by the Science Based Targets initiative and a net zero transition plan to 2045. The company launched an internal AI programme, the AI Catalyst Lab, which received more than 400 ideas from staff. These initiatives are presented as part of the growth strategy, but their delivery depends on operational execution.

      Segments

      Public Service

      The Public Service segment delivers services to UK public authorities. Management expects it to grow at low to mid single-digit rates in 2026, with consistent operating profit versus 2025 but a slightly lower margin due to mobilisation costs for Synergy Business Process Services.

      Pension Solutions and Contact Centre

      Pension Solutions benefited from indexation and contract extensions, and for 2026 management anticipates mid-teen revenue growth but lower operating profit due to costs linked to the Civil Service Pension Scheme contract. Contact Centre continued to decline, with a mid to high single-digit revenue reduction expected in 2026, and is expected to remain loss making in the same year.

      Market context

      The market for process outsourcing and digital services is evolving quickly, driven by AI adoption and cost pressure in the public sector. Capita describes its plan as a shift to a human plus AI agent model, in which AI agents coordinate workflows and human experts oversee quality and compliance. The company expects adjusted revenue growth of low single-digit in 2026, which could indicate stabilisation after recent declines.

      The company's market capitalisation remained below the net assets of the parent company at 31 December 2025, and management tested goodwill for impairment. For investors this signals heightened attention to value and execution. If the AI transition and restructuring succeed, margins could improve over the medium term.

      Trends

      • Automation and generative AImixed

        AI adoption in client processes creates opportunities to automate workflows and reduce costs, through tools such as AgentSuite and the AI Catalyst Stack. If Capita can monetise these tools, it could recover share lost in the contact centre segment.

      • Pressure on public sector contractsheadwind

        Constrained public budgets and procurement processes can slow new contracts, and Capita has high exposure to public sector clients. Expected growth in Public Service could be affected if budgets tighten.

      • Emissions reduction and ESG demandsmixed

        Clients and investors increasingly demand sustainability reporting and emissions reduction. Capita's progress toward SBTi-validated targets and a net zero plan to 2045 can support contract retention, although the required investment could pressure cash flow.

      • Cyber and data protection risksheadwind

        The March 2023 cyber incident generated significant costs, including a settlement with the UK data protection regulator. Regulatory and client pressure for stronger security remains high, which can raise compliance costs.

      Competitive position

      Capita competes with large BPO and consulting providers in the UK and abroad, as well as technology companies offering automation and AI platforms. Its advantage lies in public sector experience and hyperscaler partnerships, but price pressure and offshoring remain competitive risks.

      In pensions, competition includes specialist administrators that can offer similar services. If Capita strengthens its position by extending existing contracts, it could offset declines elsewhere in the portfolio. Competition in contact centres remains intense, and falling volumes may persist.

      • AccentureACN

        Global consulting and outsourcing provider competing on digital and AI projects for public and private clients.

      • ConcentrixCNXC

        Customer experience and contact centre services provider, relevant to the company's contact centre segment.

      • TTEC HoldingsTTEC

        Customer engagement and outsourcing provider competing for contact centre and digital support contracts.

      • GenpactG

        Global digital transformation and process outsourcing provider competing on automation and AI projects.

      News & filings

      In the press

      Annual reports (ESEF)

      Sources

      1. [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Capita plc · 31 Dec 2025

      Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.