olivLaw · European equity research
Crest Nicholson Holdings plc CRST.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B8VZXT93 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Crest Nicholson is a UK residential housebuilder and land developer. In fiscal 2025 the company reported net debt of £38.2m, and headroom against its debt covenants remained central, against a backdrop of large provisions for remediating buildings with combustible materials.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Crest Nicholson Holdings plc (CRST.L) stock was 0.66 GBP (−1.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 168.5 m GBP, P/E 73.1 on diluted EPS of 0.01 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 19.04%, beta 0.98, 52-week range 0.56–1.69 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.58 – 0.68
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.77 · band width 15.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.61 / 0.86
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / 0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.2% | −0.6% | +10.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.1% | −4.2% | +7.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.5% | +4.3% | −13.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −54.1% | +7.5% | −61.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −59.9% | +9.9% | −69.8 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −61.3% | +49.8% | −111.2 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −81.3% | +42.8% | −124.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 22.9, median 103.4, max 183.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 657.5 m | 618.2 m | 610.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −6.0% | −1.2% |
| Net income | 17.9 m | -105.0 m | 2.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −686.6% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | -0.41 | 0.01 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −685.7% | unavailable |
| net % | 2.7% | -17.0% | 0.4% |
| Free cash flow | -167.4 m | -69.2 m | -11.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Oct 2025
- Cash
- 125.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 163.2 m GBP
- Net debt
- 38.2 m GBP
- Equity
- 718.1 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.4 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.23x
- Current ratio
- 2.63x
- ROE
- 0.3%
- ROA
- 0.2%
- FCF margin
- -1.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 657.5 m | 618.2 m | 610.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 572.8 m | 691.9 m | 529.5 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 84.7 m | -73.7 m | 81.3 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 29.9 m | -130.8 m | 24.2 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 14.2 m | 18.9 m | 23.4 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 23.1 m | -145.8 m | 2.9 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 5.2 m | -40.8 m | 700.0 k | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 17.9 m | -105.0 m | 2.2 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | -0.41 | 0.01 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.17 | 0.13 | — | esef· 25 Feb 2025derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 162.6 m | 73.8 m | 125.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 120.0 m | 98.1 m | 111.3 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.2 m | 3.2 m | 2.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 14.2 m | 19.1 m | 99.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 83.5 m | 63.2 m | 64.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 438.7 m | 401.6 m | 492.7 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 674.0 m | 713.3 m | 702.7 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 851.4 m | 722.5 m | 718.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 255.7 m | 256.1 m | — | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -165.6 m | -67.8 m | -11.9 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.8 m | 1.4 m | 0 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -167.4 m ≈ | -69.2 m ≈ | -11.9 m ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 1.6 m | 25.0 m | -6.5 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -47.0 m | -46.0 m | 69.6 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 43.6 m | 32.1 m | 6.4 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 m | 100.0 k | 0 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 168.5 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 2.5% | 17 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.4% | 26 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -540.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 73.1x | 0 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -7.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.8% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality15/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial54/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS PLC (CRST.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-10-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 610.8 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth -1.2%; net margin 0.4%; ROE 0.3%.
The estimated value range is 0.13–0.28 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.19 GBP, the price of 0.66 GBP leaves a potential of -71.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -250.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.6x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 2.5%
- Net margin: 0.4%
- FCF conversion: -540.9%
- Interest coverage: 1.0x
- P/E (TTM): 73.1x
- FCF yield: -7.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| CRST.LCrest Nicholson Holdings PLC | 168.5 m | 73.1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | −1.2% | −54% / −65% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CRST.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.35 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 0.62 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 0.94 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 0.30 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 0.61 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 1.01 Total return 58% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 0.26 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 0.59 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 1.09 Total return 74% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 0.15
- Net margin± 0.11
- Annual revenue growth± 0.09
- Annual dilution± 0.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Crest Nicholson is a UK residential housebuilder and land developer. In fiscal 2025 the company reported net debt of £38.2m, and headroom against its debt covenants remained central, against a backdrop of large provisions for remediating buildings with combustible materials 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a land portfolio and work in progress of substantial size, and a diversified model spanning open market sales, bulk sales and land sales 1.
- Relationships with lenders are described as good, and management recently extended the revolving credit facility to 2029 1.
- Known mitigations such as reducing overheads and build spend give the company some flexibility in a weaker trading environment 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- If the mortgage market improves, sales volumes could recover and financing costs could become more predictable 1.
- Partnership projects and bulk sales could provide steadier revenue when open market demand is weak 1.
- Recovering costs from third parties under contractual rights could reduce the financial impact of remediation 1.
Threats
Risks
- Going concern uncertaintyhigh
Management has flagged a material uncertainty over going concern, tied in particular to covenant amendments that may be required.
- Building remediationhigh
Remediation cost estimates are uncertain, and higher costs could add significant exceptional charges.
- Housing demand and pricesmedium
A fall in sales volumes or prices could reduce revenue and the company's ability to generate cash.
- Build cost inflationmedium
Inflationary pressures and new energy efficiency requirements could raise project costs and affect margins.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the residential market stabilises, sales volumes could recover and support a rebound in profitability.
- Good lender relationships and the extension of the credit facility to 2029 could provide time to adjust the financial structure.
- Cost and investment reduction measures could protect cash if trading weakens further.
What would break the thesis
- If the UK economy slows further, demand and prices could fall more than expected, pressuring revenue.
- A breach of the interest cover covenant could trigger an event of default and limit access to financing.
- Remediation costs could exceed current estimates, which could significantly reduce profitability and cash.
What to watch
- Interest cover trajectory against the covenantApril 2026
- Covenant amendments negotiated with lenders2026
- Open market sales volumes compared with the downside scenariofiscal 2026
- Movement in building remediation provisionsnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Crest Nicholson builds and sells homes in the UK, including affordable housing, bulk sales to housing associations and bulk purchasers, and land sales to other housebuilders 1. The group manages a land portfolio and work in progress, with total inventories of £1,056.1m at 31 October 2025 1. Its activity also includes joint venture developments where the company provides project management 1.
The balance sheet carries bank loans and senior loan notes of £163.2m, of which £100.0m was drawn on the revolving credit facility 1. The company has disclosed a material uncertainty over going concern tied to possible covenant amendments, and dividends could be removed after April 2026 to conserve cash 1.
Beyond development, the group carries legal obligations to remediate historical buildings under a contract with the UK government, and provisions for these obligations totalled £236.2m at 31 October 2025 1.
Segments
Open market housing sales
Open market sales are the core of the business, and in its downside scenario the company modelled a 23% reduction in unreserved sales volumes for the 2026 financial year 1.
Market context
The company operates in the UK residential market, where demand depends on macroeconomic conditions and mortgage affordability. Management noted that an economic slowdown could reduce people's ability to buy homes and could pressure selling prices 1.
Construction conditions remain under cost pressure, and the Future Homes Standard, due to be legislated in 2026, could increase build costs for each unit 1.
Trends
- Residential market slowdownheadwind
A fall in demand and mortgage affordability could reduce sales volumes, and management modelled a significant decline in its downside scenario 1.
- Remediation of buildings with combustible materialsmixed
The government contract clarifies remediation requirements, but costs could be affected by inflationary pressures and by survey results that are still in progress 1.
- Build costs and new standardsheadwind
The Future Homes Standard, due for legislation in 2026, could raise build costs, and these are built into project acquisition appraisals 1.
- Access to financingmixed
The company extended its revolving credit facility to October 2029 but at a higher margin, showing that financing remains a sensitive part of its structure 1.
Competitive position
In the UK residential developer market, Crest Nicholson competes with other developers active in the same regions and for the same land. The sources provided do not describe its relative position against competitors in detail, so this analysis is limited to factors noted in the annual report 1.
Competition for land and for bulk contracts with housing associations affects margins and sales volumes, and the company's ability to buy new land also depends on the availability of financing 1.
- Other UK residential developers
Compete for land and for sales in UK housing markets; the sources provided give no market share data.
- Regional developers
Operate in local markets and can compete for the same projects and partnerships with housing associations.
- Bulk sales purchasers
Buyers in bulk transactions that compete with the open market for certain projects.
- Other developers buying land
Compete for strategic land, and land sales to other developers are part of the business model.
News & filings
In the press
- P-body-mediated RNA decay controls neural crest EMTPNAS · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Crest – an Arc-inspired open-source browser for MacHacker News · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Housebuilder Crest Nicholson warns of annual loss in ‘subdued’ property marketThe Guardian World · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Crest Nicholson Now Sees Full Year Loss Due to UK Housing SlumpBloomberg Markets · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-10-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Crest Nicholson Holdings plc · 31 Oct 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.