olivLaw · European equity research
CTT - Correios de Portugal, S.A. CTT.LS
Portugal · Euronext Lisbon · ISIN PTCTT0AM0001 · Vertical: Listed companies from Portugal
CTT - Correios de Portugal is a postal and logistics operator in the Iberian Peninsula, also active in financial services through Banco CTT. In 2025 the group beat the target announced at its 2022 Capital Markets Day, with operating income of 1 288,1 M€, driven by e-commerce growth and the integration of Cacesa.
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, CTT - Correios de Portugal, S.A. (CTT.LS) stock was 5.27 EUR (−1.59% on the day), with market capitalisation 702.6 m EUR, P/E 13.9 on diluted EPS of 0.38 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.23%, beta 0.70, 52-week range 5.27–7.59 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 26.4
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.21 – 5.84
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.08 · band width 11.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.02 / 6.29
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.19 / -0.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.7% | −1.0% | −9.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.7% | −3.9% | −9.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.4% | +7.2% | −20.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −29.1% | +6.6% | −35.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −30.3% | +9.1% | −39.3 pp | −9.3% |
| 3 years | +46.0% | +47.9% | −1.9 pp | +3.1% |
| 5 years | +7.3% | +43.3% | −36.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.1, median 16.4, max 19.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 844.6 m | 965.9 m | 1.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +14.4% | +16.9% |
| Net income | 60.5 m | 45.5 m | 50.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −24.7% | +11.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −23.3% | +15.2% |
| net % | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Free cash flow | 991.9 m | 911.2 m | 138.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 345.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 284.8 m EUR
- Net debt
- -60.5 m EUR
- Equity
- 323.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 6.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.88x
- Current ratio
- 0.57x
- ROE
- 16.1%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- 12.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 844.6 m | 965.9 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 14.2 m | 8.4 m | 10.4 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 830.4 m ≈ | 957.5 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
| Operating income | 77.8 m | 73.8 m | 92.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 16.9 m | 17.9 m | 20.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 61.5 m | 56.3 m | 72.3 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.1 m | 9.3 m | 18.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 60.5 m | 45.5 m | 50.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.38 | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.17 | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 351.6 m | 315.9 m | 345.3 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 153.1 m | 188.4 m | 253.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.7 m | 6.5 m | 6.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 80.3 m | 80.3 m | 184.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 70.6 m | 73.4 m | 81.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.8 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 161.1 m | 176.4 m | 284.8 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.5 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.9 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 253.3 m | 308.3 m | 323.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 140.7 m | 138.0 m | 133.4 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 931.9 m | 158.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 14.8 m | 20.7 m | 20.1 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 991.9 m ≈ | 911.2 m ≈ | 138.1 m ≈ | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.0 bn | -733.8 m | -120.3 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -87.6 m | -243.2 m | -33.4 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 17.9 m | 25.0 m | 24.4 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 10.2 m | 20.7 m | 14.1 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 70 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 702.6 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet27
- Quality77
- Returns87
- Valuation76
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.31 – 43.10 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)24.46 – 43.10 (Mid 31.07)WACC 7.1% · starting FCFF 153.7 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 79%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E3.87 – 6.19 (Mid 4.81)6 companies used · median multiple 12.7x · quartiles 10.2x – 16.3xCOR.LS, EGL.LS, JMT.LS, NVG.LS, SEM.LS, TDSA.LS
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.31 – 3.15 (Mid 2.67)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 70/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 32.1% | 83 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.5% | 44 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 272.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.4x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.9x | 57 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 19.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.5% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 17.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet27/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality77/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CTT - CORREIOS DE PORTUGAL S.A. (CTT.LS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 16.9%; net margin 4.5%; ROE 20.1%.
The estimated value range is 3.87–6.19 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.81 EUR, the price of 5.26 EUR leaves a potential of -8.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 70/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 32.1%
- FCF conversion: 272.3%
- FCF yield: 19.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 17.7%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Portugal · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMT.LSJerónimo Martins Sgps SA | 11.6 bn | 18.0 | 20.5% | 1.8% | +7.6% | −9% / −18% |
| NVG.LSThe Navigator Company, S.A. | 2.2 bn | 14.9 | 10.5% | 7.3% | −5.7% | −0% / −20% |
| SEM.LSSemapa - Sociedade De Investimento E Gestão, Sgps, S.A. | 1.6 bn | 10.1 | 9.3% | 7.4% | −1.6% | +18% / +46% |
| EGL.LSMota - Engil, Sgps S.A. | 1.4 bn | 10.4 | 44.7% | 2.5% | −10.9% | −4% / +23% |
| COR.LSCorticeira Amorim, Sgps, S.A. | 930.5 m | 16.7 | 6.6% | 6.5% | −8.3% | +4% / −23% |
| CTT.LSCtt - Correios De Portugal S.A. | 702.6 m | 13.9 | 20.1% | 4.5% | +16.9% | −25% / +48% |
| NBA.LSNovabase - Sociedade Gestora De Participações Sociais S.A. | 261.8 m | 51.1 | 8.8% | 4.4% | −7.2% | −19% / +35% |
| TDSA.LSTeixeira Duarte, S.A. | 174.9 m | 3.5 | 34.1% | 7.1% | −8.9% | −38% / +491% |
| ESON.LSEstoril-Sol, SGPS S.A. | 32.2 m | — | -25.2% | -20.3% | −2.4% | −33% / −64% |
| RAM.LSRamada Investimentos E Indústria, S.A. | — | — | 8.1% | 85.9% | +0.6% | −11% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CTT.LS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.44 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 6.05 Total return 19% · Per year 19% | 9.08 Total return 77% · Per year 77% |
| 3 years | 4.08 Total return -13% · Per year -5% | 8.01 Total return 65% · Per year 18% | 13.08 Total return 165% · Per year 38% |
| 5 years | 4.84 Total return 9% · Per year 2% | 10.59 Total return 126% · Per year 18% | 18.83 Total return 291% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 2.00
- Net margin± 1.40
- Annual revenue growth± 1.05
- Annual dilution± 0.12
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
CTT - Correios de Portugal is a postal and logistics operator in the Iberian Peninsula, also active in financial services through Banco CTT. In 2025 the group beat the target announced at its 2022 Capital Markets Day, with operating income of 1 288,1 M€ 1, driven by e-commerce growth and the integration of Cacesa.
SWOT
Strengths
- An extensive physical network present in every municipality gives an advantage that is hard to replicate and supports postal, financial and logistics services.
- Diversification into e-commerce and financial services has reduced dependence on declining traditional mail.
- The integration of Cacesa adds customs clearance capacity, a point of differentiation for the Iberian offer.
Weaknesses
- Traditional mail remains in structural decline, pressing margins in the Mail and Services segment.
- The e-commerce segment's EBIT margin stayed roughly stable on a comparable basis while the group keeps investing in its networks.
- Net debt consolidated with Banco CTT has grown, limiting financial room for manoeuvre.
Opportunities
- If B2C e-commerce growth holds, last-mile volumes could support expansion of the express segment.
- The DHL partnership could create a larger logistics platform for e-commerce in the Iberian Peninsula.
- Expanding the locker and out-of-home point network could increase convenience for customers and delivery density.
Threats
- US customs tariffs and trade restrictions disrupted cross-border shipping services.
- Competitive pressure from express operators and digital platforms could erode tariffs and volumes.
- A possible transfer of traffic from some large customers to other operators would have a severe financial impact.
Risks
- Cybersecurity incidentshigh
Growing sophistication of attacks, amplified by artificial intelligence tools, keeps the risk high despite continuous investment in technology.
- Universal Postal Service obligationsmedium
Breaching price, quality and network density obligations can trigger penalties, and the ongoing challenges to fines could have a later financial effect.
- Service quality and compensationmedium
Operational failures can lead to complaints and compensation, and with e-commerce traffic growing the financial effect tends to increase.
- Economic and geopolitical instabilityhigh
Conflicts, trade tensions and currency volatility had a significant impact in 2025, mainly through the suspension of the US De Minimis regime.
- Pace of the energy transitionlow
A shortage of electric vehicles or charging infrastructure could raise costs and make it harder to meet emission reduction targets for 2030.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rapid growth in e-commerce and the integration of Cacesa could support sustainable profitability growth if margins improve.
- A unique physical network and diversification into financial services can provide a stable base even if traditional mail keeps declining.
- The DHL partnership could produce a more efficient logistics platform and lower last-mile costs in the Iberian Peninsula.
What would break the thesis
- If tariffs and trade restrictions worsen, cross-border revenue could fall more than anticipated.
- Competitive pressure from express and digital platforms could limit tariff increases and margins in the e-commerce segment.
- Rising net debt and heavy investment could reduce financial flexibility if operating results do not grow in step.
What to watch
- Evolution of the EBIT margin of the E-commerce Solutions segment after the Cacesa integration and the DHL joint venture2026
- Outcome of court rulings on challenges to ANACOM fines for the Universal Postal Service2026
- Impact of US customs tariffs and the De Minimis regime on cross-border services2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
From fiscal 2025 CTT reports its activity in three segments: E-commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT 1. The e-commerce segment covers CEP last-mile services in Portugal and Spain and Cacesa, acquired in April 2025, a specialist in customs clearance of international parcels. In 2025 the segment generated 626,3 M€ of revenue, and CEP services account for 83,7% of its revenue 1. Banco CTT contributed 145,4 M€ of revenue, up 11,9% 1.
The group's physical distribution network, covering all municipalities and rural areas, remains a central asset. It supports postal services, financial services, the payment of social benefits and the expansion of out-of-home points, including the Locky parcel lockers. The group has also announced a partnership with DHL that will lead to a joint venture in B2C and B2B e-commerce logistics in the Iberian Peninsula 1.
The simplified reporting structure aims to separate more clearly the e-commerce logistics business from traditional postal services and banking. The stated purpose is to reflect more faithfully the growth trajectory of the express and parcels segment 1.
Market context
The financial market and public debt placements provide a variable contribution, dependent on the state's issuance cycle and interest rate dynamics. Demand for express and cross-border customs services is fuelled by the EU customs reform 1.
Trends
- Growth in e-commercetailwind
The expansion of B2C e-commerce in the Iberian Peninsula supports parcel volumes and express revenue, but also strains processing and distribution capacity.
- Decline of traditional mailheadwind
The fall in classic mail volumes reduces traditional revenue and pushes the group to diversify into logistics and financial services.
- Energy transition of the fleetmixed
Electrifying delivery vehicles brings investment and charging infrastructure costs, but also the possibility of lowering emissions over the long term.
- EU customs reform and international tariffsmixed
Changes to the European customs regime and trade restrictions can affect cross-border flows, but may also increase the value of the customs clearance services offered through Cacesa.
Competitive position
The group operates in a highly competitive market, where express operators and e-commerce platforms compete for last-mile volumes. CTT's differentiation rests on network reach, pick-up and delivery points and integrated customs capacity 1.
In financial services, Banco CTT competes with traditional banks and new digital players, with the advantage of an extensive physical network and relationships with customers in less served areas 1.
- Correios (Brazil)
Public postal operator in Brazil, cited as a sector reference; no confirmed US ticker in the sources reviewed.
- DHL Express
Partner in the planned Iberian e-commerce logistics joint venture, and also a competitor in international express.
- Local and regional express and courier operators in the Iberian Peninsula
Companies competing on last mile and e-commerce deliveries.
- Digital banks and neobanks
Competitors for deposits, payments and savings products, especially among younger customers.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202422 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / CTT - Correios de Portugal, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.