olivLaw · European equity research
Ceres Power Holdings plc CWR.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BG5KQW09 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Ceres Power develops solid oxide cell technology and licenses it to industrial partners for mass manufacture, earning licence fees and royalties. In 2025 the company moved from research to commercial phase, and revenue fell to £32.6 million from £51.9 million, reflecting one-off technology transfers in 2024. Its first royalties from Doosan's launch and the Weichai licence could change the financial profile in coming years if they materialise.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ceres Power Holdings plc (CWR.L) stock was 2.67 GBP (−5.86% on the day), with market capitalisation 517.0 m GBP, beta 1.61, 52-week range 2.13–8.45 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.17 – 3.79
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.31 · band width 54.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.60 / 4.29
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.29 / -0.31
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −35.2% | −0.6% | −34.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −37.3% | −4.2% | −33.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −64.5% | +4.3% | −68.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +25.3% | +7.5% | +17.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −28.3% | +9.9% | −38.2 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +23.1% | +49.8% | −26.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −77.3% | +42.8% | −120.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.3 m | 51.9 m | 32.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +132.4% | −37.1% |
| Net income | -54.0 m | -28.3 m | -47.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.28 | -0.15 | -0.25 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -241.9% | -54.5% | -145.7% |
| Free cash flow | -41.8 m | -40.4 m | -21.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 35.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 107.6 m GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.27x
- ROE
- -36.4%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- -66.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.3 m | 51.9 m | 32.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 8.8 m | 11.7 m | 9.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 13.6 m | 40.2 m | 22.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | -59.4 m | -31.3 m | -47.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.3 m | 362.0 k | 587.0 k | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -53.6 m | -25.9 m | -46.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 399.0 k | 2.4 m | 1.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -54.0 m | -28.3 m | -47.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.28 | -0.15 | -0.25 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 49.7 m | 47.5 m | 35.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 9.9 m | 17.9 m | 18.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.8 m | 2.8 m | 3.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 156.2 m | 132.8 m | 108.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 25.9 m | 23.6 m | 18.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 19.1 m | 20.0 m | 16.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 20.2 m | 22.2 m | 33.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 180.6 m | 153.8 m | 107.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 192.7 m | 193.3 m | 193.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -33.9 m | -35.9 m | -20.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 7.9 m | 4.4 m | 1.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -41.8 m ≈ | -40.4 m ≈ | -21.8 m ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 12.3 m | 34.3 m | 9.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -242.0 k | -478.0 k | -1.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 517.0 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
25% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -145.7% | 6 (vs peers) | 25% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -81.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -4.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial6/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CERES POWER HOLDINGS PLC (CWR.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 32.6 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth -37.1%; net margin -145.7%; ROE -36.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 3.3x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -145.7%
- Interest coverage: -81.1x
- FCF yield: -4.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| CWR.LCeres Power Holdings PLC | 517.0 m | — | -36.4% | -145.7% | −37.1% | −28% / +42% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CWR.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ceres Power develops solid oxide cell technology and licenses it to industrial partners for mass manufacture, earning licence fees and royalties. In 2025 the company moved from research to commercial phase, and revenue fell to £32.6 million from £51.9 million, reflecting one-off technology transfers in 2024. Its first royalties from Doosan's launch and the Weichai licence could change the financial profile in coming years if they materialise.
SWOT
Strengths
- Asset-light licensing model with high gross margins, held at a high level even in the year revenue fell 1.
- Protected IP portfolio built on patents, know-how and trade secrets, backed by long experience in cell and stack development 1.
- Cash and short-term investments provide flexibility during the transition towards profitability 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue fell in 2025 and losses widened, showing dependence on the timing of one-off technology transfers 1.
- Reliance on a small number of partners for revenue and royalties means delays at a single partner could have significant impact 1.
- The second-half 2025 restructuring reduced headcount, which may create skills gaps in certain specialist roles 1.
Opportunities
- Growing power demand in data centres and commercial and industrial markets could accelerate adoption of the technology 1.
- If partner production rises, recurring high-margin royalties could become a steadier revenue source 1.
- Green hydrogen electrolysis for heavy industry could open a long-term market if decarbonisation policies strengthen 1.
Threats
- Slower hydrogen adoption and uncertainty in energy markets could delay partner projects 1.
- Competition from alternative electrolysis and power technologies could limit SOEC adoption as an industry standard 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and sanctions could disrupt partner operations or supply chains in Asia 1.
Risks
- Delays in partner scale-uphigh
Partners could miss agreed market launch timelines due to supply chain issues or product maturity 1.
- Reliance on partner commercialisationhigh
Partners could choose not to use the technology or go to market more slowly than anticipated, which would affect royalties 1.
- Funding and liquiditymedium
If new customer wins are delayed, the cash position could require further external funding, and an equity raise at unfavourable terms could dilute shareholders 1.
- Intellectual property protectionmedium
The competitive advantage could be eroded by successful challenges to patents or unauthorised use of the technology 1.
- Cyber and geopolitical exposuremedium
A cyber-attack could compromise IP or disrupt operations, and geopolitical events could prevent business in some regions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If royalties from Doosan and later partners grow, recurring high-margin revenue could become dominant and reduce reliance on one-off licence fees 1.
- If demand for power in data centres keeps rising, solid oxide technology could capture an important segment quickly 1.
- If green hydrogen electrolysis becomes economic for heavy industry, the company could benefit from a long-duration market where it claims a technology advantage 1.
What would break the thesis
- If revenue stays below the 2024 level and losses persist, the company could need additional funding before reaching profitability 1.
- If the slowdown in hydrogen adoption lasts, electrolysis projects could be postponed and related royalties could be delayed 1.
- If partners face scale-up or supply chain problems, the market launch timetable could slip, affecting the company's revenue 1.
What to watch
- Revenue from licensing and the start of recognition of Weichai licence revenueH1 2026
- Development of Doosan royalties as production ramps up2026
- Trend in adjusted EBITDA loss and cash position after restructuring2026
- Launch of the dual-purpose stack platform and timing of the Shell electrolyser demonstrationH1 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ceres Power runs a licensing business: it owns IP for solid oxide cells and stacks and licenses it to manufacturers producing at scale. Revenue comes from up-front licence fees, engineering services, technology hardware sales for scaling factories and royalties calculated per kW sold in power or electrolysis markets. The model is described as asset-light with high gross margins, which stood at 70% in 2025 1.
In 2025 the company recognised its first royalties after Doosan began commercial production and sales of Ceres fuel cells 1. In November 2025 it signed a manufacturing licence with Weichai, with licence revenue expected to be recognised from the first half of 2026 1.
Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to £32.5 million in 2025 as revenue fell, and the company ran a restructuring in the second half of the year 1. Year-end headcount was 353 1. Cash and short-term investments of £83.3 million are the main financial buffer 1.
Segments
Technology licensing and up-front fees
This covers up-front fees for IP access, technology transfers and engineering services. Revenue here was higher in 2024, when transfers for new partners Delta and DENSO were completed, and it declined in 2025 1.
Royalties
Royalties are calculated per kW sold and are described as high-margin recurring revenue. The first royalties were recognised in 2025 with Doosan's commercial launch, and the company expects this stream to grow as other partners start production 1.
Hardware for scale-up
Hardware sales support partners scaling factories for mass production. The company presents this alongside licence fees and engineering services as part of its revenue 1.
Market context
The company positions its technology for both power generation and green hydrogen electrolysis. Management cited growing demand in data centres and a resurgence in power markets, while hydrogen adoption slowed in 2025 1. The conflict in the Middle East added uncertainty to energy markets, which could affect the timing of customer investment 1.
Management expects industrial demand for electrolysis could accelerate as decarbonisation policies mature toward the end of the decade, though this depends on policy and partner project timing 1.
Trends
- Recovery in power and data centre demandtailwind
Demand for resilient, fast-to-deploy power solutions is rising in commercial, industrial and data centre markets. If this persists, solid oxide technology could gain an edge over competing solutions 1.
- Slower hydrogen adoptionheadwind
The company noted slower hydrogen adoption in 2025, which led it to refocus on the power market. If the slowdown lasts, the timing of electrolysis royalties could be pushed back 1.
- Geopolitical and energy market uncertaintymixed
The Middle East conflict and tensions in partner territories in Asia could affect energy markets and the ability to do business in some regions. The effect is mixed: it may slow projects but could also increase interest in alternative energy sources 1.
- Decarbonisation of heavy industrytailwind
Climate policy and the need for green hydrogen in heavy industry support long-term demand for solid oxide electrolysis, although the timing is uncertain 1.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not detail specific competitors. Management does note that establishing SOEC as a credible technology is exposed to competition risk, which points to alternative technologies in the market 1.
The company aims to stay ahead through continued technology investment and by extending its dual-purpose stack platform. Its stated advantage is competitive total cost of ownership and the ability of partners to enter markets quickly 1.
- Alkaline and PEM electrolyser makers
Sources flag competition risk for SOEC but do not name specific companies.
- Other solid oxide technology developers
Competition risk is mentioned generically in the annual report without explicit names in the supplied sources.
- Power generation system suppliers
The power market is a commercial target, and competition there is not detailed in the source.
- Industrial partners developing their own systems
Partners can develop their own systems or license designs from the company, creating an internal competitive dynamic.
News & filings
In the press
- Ceres' water ice can mask massive surface salt depositsPhys.org · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ceres Pharma crește eficiența operațională prin digitalizare: timpul de procesare a datelor scade cu 60%, iar erorile se reduc cu 40%Mediafax · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Ceres Power H1 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ceres Power spins out RFC Power in £10 million funding roundYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Sell Ceres Shares But Don’t Short Them, Broker Says After RallyBloomberg Markets · 04 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ceres Power Holdings plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.