olivLaw · European equity research
EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES EXA.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0000062671 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES designs and produces navigation systems, maritime robotics and advanced technologies for defence, aerospace and industrial applications. In 2025 revenue grew 28 %, and the group ended the year with an order backlog above one billion euros, which makes the company relevant to investors following defence cycles and naval fleet renewal.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES (EXA.PA) stock was 125.60 EUR (−0.32% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 bn EUR, P/E 713.6 on diluted EPS of 0.18 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.03%, beta 0.51, 52-week range 73.20–148.80 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 124.79 – 126.00
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.67 · band width 1.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 124.87 / 122.33
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.24 / 0.24
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.7% | −0.6% | +1.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.9% | −4.2% | +5.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.9% | +4.3% | +7.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +54.1% | +7.5% | +46.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +58.6% | +9.9% | +48.7 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | +656.6% | +49.8% | +606.8 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | +1,004.9% | +42.8% | +962.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 19.5, median 241.3, max 463.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 322.8 m | 373.1 m | 478.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +15.6% | +28.3% |
| Net income | 16.8 m | -3.6 m | 3.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −121.6% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.99 | -0.21 | 0.18 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −121.7% | unavailable |
| net % | 5.2% | -1.0% | 0.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 328.4 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 261.9 m EUR
- Net debt
- -66.6 m EUR
- Equity
- 501.1 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.52x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 0.8%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 322.8 m | 373.1 m | 478.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 7.2 m | 18.1 m | 31.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -3.1 m | -4.4 m | 773.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 16.8 m | -3.6 m | 3.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.99 | -0.21 | 0.18 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.03 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 25.5 m | 50.3 m | 328.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 72.9 m | 78.8 m | 80.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 44.7 m | 50.8 m | 54.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 145.1 m | 146.0 m | 146.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 275.7 m | 271.0 m | 263.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 808.8 m | 831.8 m | 1.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 263.6 m | 269.2 m | 261.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 214.6 m | 204.1 m | 501.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 17.0 m | 17.0 m | 16.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.95 – 5.24 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E1.95 – 5.24 (Mid 3.01)20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 29.8x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.47 – 0.64 (Mid 0.54)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.2% | 48 (vs peers) | 31% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.6% | 36 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 713.6x | 0 (vs peers) | 31% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES (EXA.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 478.5 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 28.3%; net margin 0.6%; ROE 1.1%.
The estimated value range is 1.95–5.24 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.01 EUR, the price of 125.60 EUR leaves a potential of -97.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -4,065.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 713.6x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| EXA.PAExail Technologies | 2.1 bn | 713.6 | 1.1% | 0.6% | +28.3% | +66% / +610% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EXA.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 82.08 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 144.44 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 216.66 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 97.35 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 191.02 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 311.99 Total return 149% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 115.48 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 252.63 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 449.27 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 47.76
- Net margin± 33.43
- Annual revenue growth± 24.93
- Annual dilution± 2.81
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES designs and produces navigation systems, maritime robotics and advanced technologies for defence, aerospace and industrial applications. In 2025 revenue grew 28 % 1, and the group ended the year with an order backlog above one billion euros 1, which makes the company relevant to investors following defence cycles and naval fleet renewal.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Low net cashhigh
At year end net cash was very small, leaving little room for manoeuvre 1.
- Working capital swingsmedium
Payments on large contracts can fluctuate widely and affect cash flows 1.
- Aerospace under pressuremedium
Weak aerospace performance could continue to weigh on sector margins 1.
- Defence regulationmedium
Supply rules and restrictions may delay projects or raise costs 1.
- Supplier dependencelow
Lack of alternative sources for specific components could expose the group to interruptions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Trend in net cash and payments on large contracts2026
- Performance of aerospace activities in Advanced Technologies2026
- Execution of the order backlog above one billion euros2026
- Effect of the January 2026 bond issue on the capital structure2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Segments
Market context
Main customers are in defence and aerospace, sectors with strict regulation on sourcing and traceability 1. The 28 % revenue growth in 2025 included the consolidation of LEUKOS, a scope change described as not significant 1.
Demand from naval and defence sectors may support growth, but the market remains concentrated on a few large customers and government programmes, which could make revenue more volatile 1.
Trends
- Naval fleet modernisationtailwind
Military vessel renewal programmes could generate long-term orders for navigation and robotics systems 1.
- Strict sourcing requirementsheadwind
Defence restrictions on sources, standards and traceability limit the ability to replace suppliers, which could raise costs 1.
- Pressure in aerospacemixed
Aerospace activity in Advanced Technologies remains below expectations, although it improved in 2025 1.
- Sustainable supply chain managementmixed
The company finds it hard to diversify suppliers for specific components, but sustainability efforts may reduce long-term risks 1.
Competitive position
The source does not explicitly identify the company's competitors, so this analysis cannot include competitors without a basis in the documents provided 1.
The competitive position rests on differentiating technologies and on the qualifications needed by defence customers, which limits entry by other suppliers 1.
- No competitors named in the source
The reference document does not list direct competitors of the company.
- Electronic component suppliers
Component companies the group works with are not direct competitors, and the source does not name them.
- Naval systems manufacturers
The source does not mention competitor names in this segment.
- Aerospace equipment manufacturers
The source does not identify competitors in the aerospace sector.
News & filings
In the press
- Leading navy selects Exail inertial navigation systems for its fleet of uncrewed surface vesselsEuropean Defence Review · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Exail unveils Neptis, a new model of maritime surveillance built on distributed autonomyEuropean Defence Review · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Thales Selling Bonds to Help Fund Deal for Sea-Drone Maker ExailBloomberg Markets · 20 Aug 2026 · EN
- Tranzacție de 3,9 miliarde de euro pe piața de Defence: Thales, companie cu operațiuni și în România, va achiziționa producătorul francez de drone subacvatice ExailEconomedia · 07 Jul 2026 · RO
- Thales to buy French underwater-drone maker Exail in $4.5 billion dealDefense News (US, EN) · 06 Jul 2026 · RO
- Europa îşi întăreşte industria de apărare: Thales lansează o ofertă de preluare de 3,9 miliarde de euro pentru ExailZiarul Financiar · 06 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202423 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.