olivLaw · European equity research
FirstGroup plc FGP.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0003452173 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
FirstGroup is a UK transport operator running buses, rail and related services, and its First Rail division reported adjusted revenue of £272.4m in fiscal 2026. The company is preparing a new phase of growth through the London Overground contract and expanded open access services.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, FirstGroup plc (FGP.L) stock was 2.33 GBP (+1.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn GBP, P/E 11.3 on diluted EPS of 0.21 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.02%, beta 0.48, 52-week range 1.58–2.34 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 81.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.86 – 2.39
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 25.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.91 / 1.81
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.12 / 0.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +24.2% | −0.6% | +24.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +27.4% | −4.2% | +31.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +45.0% | +4.3% | +40.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.2% | +7.5% | +14.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.8% | +9.9% | +0.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +45.6% | +49.8% | −4.2 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +126.7% | +42.8% | +83.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 8.0, median 8.1, max 8.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.0% | −9.2% |
| Net income | -15.9 m | 127.5 m | 118.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −7.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +0.5% |
| net % | -0.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Free cash flow | 326.4 m | 603.5 m | 373.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 432.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 725.3 m GBP
- Equity
- 719.5 m GBP
- Total assets
- 3.1 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 1.61x
- Current ratio
- 0.73x
- ROE
- 16.5%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.8 bn | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Operating income | 46.5 m | 222.6 m | 219.4 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 82.0 m | 65.4 m | 69.8 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -18.8 m | 164.9 m | 156.7 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Income tax | -15.1 m | 31.3 m | 37.3 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | -15.9 m | 127.5 m | 118.3 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | 0.21 | 0.21 | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.07 | esef· 07 Jul 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 496.5 m | 487.1 m | 432.0 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Receivables | 852.6 m | 761.6 m | 586.4 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Inventories | 25.9 m | 30.8 m | 29.3 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 111.0 m | 144.7 m | 157.0 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 888.9 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 626.5 m | 481.4 m | 447.1 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.0 bn | 991.3 m | 710.2 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | 641.7 m | 712.5 m | 719.5 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 662.5 m | 598.6 m | 552.8 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 543.3 m | 754.2 m | 615.6 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Capex | 216.9 m | 150.7 m | 241.8 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 326.4 m ≈ | 603.5 m ≈ | 373.8 m ≈ | esef· 07 Jul 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -10.2 m | -150.9 m | -186.2 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -776.3 m | -641.5 m | -453.5 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 29.5 m | 34.2 m | 38.9 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation85
- Balance sheet15
- Returns66
- Quality55
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.6% | 46 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.5% | 26 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 316.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 25 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.3x | 72 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 29.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.0% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 10.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality55/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns66/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FIRSTGROUP PLC (FGP.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.8 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth -9.2%; net margin 2.5%; ROE 16.8%.
The estimated value range is 2.33–3.59 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.97 GBP, the price of 2.33 GBP leaves a potential of 27.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 316.0%
- P/E (TTM): 11.3x
- FCF yield: 29.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 10.4%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 2.5%
- Interest coverage: 3.1x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| FGP.LFirstgroup PLC | 1.3 bn | 11.3 | 16.8% | 2.5% | −9.2% | +32% / +45% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FGP.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.29 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 2.30 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 3.48 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 1.03 Total return -50% · Per year -21% | 2.08 Total return -2% · Per year -1% | 3.48 Total return 60% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 0.82 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 1.87 Total return -6% · Per year -1% | 3.48 Total return 67% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 0.52
- Net margin± 0.36
- Annual revenue growth± 0.33
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
FirstGroup is a UK transport operator running buses, rail and related services, and its First Rail division reported adjusted revenue of £272.4m in fiscal 2026 1. The company is preparing a new phase of growth through the London Overground contract and expanded open access services 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad asset base, a wide operating footprint and proven experience in running rail and bus services 1.
- Open access operations achieve high seat utilisation above the industry average and have earned recognition for customer satisfaction 1.
- The company has secured co-funding for its fleet decarbonisation, which lowers future investment needs 1.
Weaknesses
- Rail revenue fell, partly due to the transfer of SWR and normalised fees on DfT TOC contracts 1.
- Open access margins were pressured by mobilisation costs and a higher infrastructure charge for Lumo 1.
- The company depends on contracts and authority decisions, which can limit its control over revenue 1.
Opportunities
- Bus franchising could bring new contracts to the company, which has assets and experience in the affected areas 1.
- The London Overground contract and expanded open access services, including in Wales, could add revenue 1.
- Energy storage from bus batteries could generate revenue from electricity markets if the projects expand 1.
Threats
- Competition on the East Coast Main line and weaker leisure travel demand could affect open access yields 1.
- The end of the £3 fare cap in England could change demand and fare structures on buses 1.
- Rail reform and the move of contracts into public ownership could reduce the role of private operators over the longer term 1.
Risks
- Competition on open access routeshigh
Extra capacity and price pressure on the East Coast Main line could reduce revenue and margins for Lumo and Hull Trains 1.
- Transition to franchisingmedium
Awarding bus contracts through franchises could change the company's share of the market if it does not win enough tenders 1.
- Passenger demandmedium
Travel demand could stay below expectations after the fare cap ends, which would affect bus revenue 1.
- Decarbonisation capital spendingmedium
Investment in a greener fleet may require significant sums, and delays in co-funding could increase pressure on cash flow 1.
- Rail policylow
Moving national rail contracts into public ownership and reforming rail structure may change the role and revenue of private operators 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If bus franchises and the London Overground contract translate into stable revenue, the company could reach the adjusted operating profit growth it has guided for fiscal 2027 1.
- Open access services with high seat utilisation and planned extra capacity could drive rising revenue in the coming years 1.
- Operational experience and a large asset base could give the company an advantage in tenders for new transport contracts 1.
What would break the thesis
- Competitive pressure on rail routes and falling yields could limit revenue growth from open access 1.
- If bus franchising awards contracts to other operators, the company could lose part of its revenue base 1.
- Rail reform and the move of contracts into public ownership could reduce the role and revenue of private operators over the longer term 1.
What to watch
- First quarter results for fiscal 2027 and trends in bus passenger volumesQ1 2027
- Guidance for revenue and adjusted operating profit in fiscal 20272027
- Lumo and Hull Trains results after the Stirling to London service launch2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
FirstGroup operates in UK public transport, covering regional buses, London buses, rail and related services, as described in its annual report for the year ended March 2026 1. The company aims to win a share of the bus franchise market and grow its coach and open access businesses 1. Its stated goal for fiscal 2027 is revenue of just over £1.5bn, together with growth in adjusted operating profit 1.
The First Rail division includes open access operations, which run commercially without government funding, such as Hull Trains and Lumo, alongside DfT TOC contracts and support services such as FCC, Mistral Data and First Rail Consultancy 1. The London Overground contract, awarded in December 2025 and taken over from 3 May 2026, has joined the portfolio 1.
Overall, the company relies on its operational scale, asset base and decarbonisation credentials to strengthen its earnings as the UK bus market evolves 1.
Segments
Regional Bus and First Bus London
The bus division focuses on regional franchises to be competitively awarded over the next five years, including in South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and Wales, where the company already operates 1. In London, route contracts are evolving and the company intends to grow revenue in this segment 1.
Market context
The UK bus market is moving towards franchising, which opens opportunities for operators with strong assets and experience 1. Around £1bn of annualised regional bus revenue is expected to be competitively franchised over the next five years 1. In rail, passenger numbers on open access services have grown, but yields have been pressured by competition and extra capacity 1.
The rail market is shaped by the transfer of national rail contracts into public ownership, and the company argues that private operators can bring investment and efficiency within this framework 1.
Trends
- Regional bus franchisingtailwind
Local authorities are moving to franchising, which could open large contracts for operators with assets and experience such as the company 1.
- Declining bus passenger volumesmixed
The decline in passenger volumes appears to have eased entering fiscal 2027, but the company is monitoring closely, especially as the £3 fare cap in England ends 1.
- Decarbonisation and energy storagemixed
Investment in electric buses and battery storage could lower costs and create grid revenue streams, but requires significant capital spending 1.
- Competition in open accessheadwind
Growing capacity from rivals on the East Coast Main line and price pressure could reduce yields on open access services even if demand stays solid 1.
Competitive position
In UK bus and rail, the company faces other large operators competing for franchise contracts and for passengers on open access routes 1. Price competition and extra capacity on the East Coast Main line weighed on open access margins in the second half of fiscal 2026 1.
The company argues that its operational experience and decarbonisation investment set it apart from rivals, but competition for new contracts remains intense 1.
- LNER
Rail operator on the East Coast Main line whose capacity and pricing have affected the company's open access yields 1.
- Avanti West Coast
West Coast rail operator trialling tools to reduce delays, a rival in the rail segment 1.
- Other bus franchise operators
Operators that may compete for franchise contracts being awarded in England and Wales 1.
- Operators of DfT contracted train services
Operators holding Department for Transport contracts that compete for running national rail services 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202607 Jul 2026
- Annual report 202501 Jul 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-28 (ESEF) · SEC / FirstGroup plc · 28 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.