olivLaw · European equity research
Fresnillo plc FRES.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B2QPKJ12 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Fresnillo plc is a silver and gold producer based in Mexico, with operations and projects across North and South America. Fiscal 2025 brought strong results, supported by record precious metal prices and cost discipline, while the Probe Gold Inc. acquisition extends the company into Canada. Attention remains on safety, mine modernisation and the pace of resource growth.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Fresnillo plc (FRES.L) stock was 24.95 GBP (+1.92% on the day), with beta 1.03, 52-week range 21.92–44.48 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 21.69 – 28.59
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.47 · band width 27.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.58 / 31.46
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.09 / -1.18
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.7% | −0.6% | −7.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.9% | −4.2% | −4.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −32.1% | +4.3% | −36.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −25.2% | +7.5% | −32.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.3% | +9.9% | +6.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +348.3% | +49.8% | +298.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +176.9% | +42.8% | +134.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +29.3% | +30.5% |
| Net income | 233.9 m | 140.9 m | 1.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −39.8% | +882.1% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 8.6% | 4.0% | 30.3% |
| Free cash flow | -57.5 m | 929.3 m | 1.9 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 839.9 m USD
- Net debt
- -1.8 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.17x
- Current ratio
- 4.35x
- ROE
- 29.8%
- ROA
- 21.0%
- FCF margin
- 41.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 503.2 m | 1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 88.8 m | 73.6 m | 68.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 114.0 m | 743.9 m | 2.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -174.3 m | 517.2 m | 508.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 233.9 m | 140.9 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 534.6 m | 1.1 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 419.7 m | 674.2 m | 830.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 463.0 m | 412.4 m | 432.8 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.3 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 258.1 m | 223.8 m | 375.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 839.0 m | 839.5 m | 839.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 372.0 m | 368.6 m | 932.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.1 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 425.9 m | 1.3 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 483.4 m | 370.5 m | 400.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -57.5 m ≈ | 929.3 m ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -369.5 m | -465.5 m | 67.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -495.8 m | -248.3 m | -804.8 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 30.3% | 86 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 136.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FRESNILLO PLC (FRES.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 30.5%; net margin 30.3%; ROE 32.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 30.3%
- FCF conversion: 136.5%
- Current ratio: 4.3x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FRES.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Fresnillo plc is a silver and gold producer based in Mexico, with operations and projects across North and South America. Fiscal 2025 brought strong results, supported by record precious metal prices and cost discipline, while the Probe Gold Inc. acquisition extends the company into Canada. Attention remains on safety, mine modernisation and the pace of resource growth.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of long-established mines with substantial silver and gold reserves, reinforced by reserve growth in 2025 1.
- High margins per ounce and cost discipline that generated substantial cash flow in 2025 1.
- A solid balance sheet with considerable liquidity that funds mine upgrades and exploration projects 1.
Weaknesses
- Silver and gold output fell in 2025 from the prior year, due to lower ore grades and reduced ore volumes processed 1.
- Some planned cost savings were not fully realised, and equipment availability at Saucito remained below expectations 1.
- Reliance on operations in Mexico exposes the company to local political and regulatory risks 1.
Opportunities
- If precious metal prices stay high, the company could convert more resources into reserves and extend mine lives 1.
- The Probe Gold Inc. acquisition could open new growth areas in Canada if integration proceeds as planned 1.
- A more business-friendly environment in Mexico could support production and investment targets 1.
Risks
- Workplace safetyhigh
Two fatal accidents occurred in 2025, one at Ciénega and one at Juanicipio, and the company acknowledges that zero fatalities is the only acceptable outcome 1.
- Precious metal price volatilityhigh
Revenue and margins depend on silver and gold prices, which rose sharply in 2025 and could fall if safe-haven demand weakens 1.
- Mine operating performancemedium
Lower ore grades and volumes processed weighed on output, and equipment availability at Saucito remains an uncertainty 1.
- Geopolitical and regulatory risk in Mexicomedium
Main operations are in Mexico, and changes in policy or government could influence the company's activity 1.
- Acquisition integrationlow
The Probe Gold Inc. acquisition extends the company into Canada, and integration and resource development could require additional time and resources 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- High silver and gold prices, combined with low operating costs, could support strong cash flows if the 2025 trends continue 1.
- The exploration portfolio and the Canadian acquisition could drive long-term growth if projects advance as planned 1.
- A strong balance sheet and significant liquidity give flexibility to invest in existing mines and new projects 1.
What would break the thesis
- Metal output fell in 2025, and if ore grades do not improve, results could remain below expectations 1.
- Dependence on precious metal prices exposes results to corrections, especially if safe-haven demand eases 1.
- The fatal incidents of 2025 and operational risks could bring extra costs and regulatory pressure 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against 2026 guidance of 42-46.5 moz silver and 500-550 koz gold2026
- Completion of the Jarillas shaft interconnection at Saucito2026
- Updated preliminary economic assessment for Tajitos1H26
- Integration of Probe Gold Inc. and development of its Canadian resourcesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Fresnillo plc mines and processes silver and gold, along with by-product lead and zinc, from several mines located mainly in Mexico. According to its 2025 annual report, the company describes itself as one of the world's longest continuously operated mines, with a strategy built on exploration, development, operations and sustainability 1. Its structure also includes projects in Peru and Chile and, through the acquisition of Probe Gold Inc., a presence in Canada 1.
The company's strategy rests on four pillars: exploration, development, efficient operations and sustainability. In 2025 it invested 176.1 million USD in risk capital exploration, and has planned 310 million USD for the same purpose in 2026 1. Management aims to convert resources into reserves and identify two further world-class assets for its portfolio 1.
The operating structure includes the Fresnillo district, the Saucito mine, Juanicipio (a significant silver interest) and, for gold, Herradura and Noche Buena. In 2025, Fresnillo produced 21.1% of group silver, Saucito 28.3%, and Juanicipio 19.8% of attributable silver production 1.
Segments
Fresnillo district
The Fresnillo mine, one of the world's longest continuously operated mines, generated 15.9% of group adjusted revenue in 2025 1. Cash cost rose to 18.0 USD per silver ounce, but the margin per ounce increased substantially, and 2026 objectives focus on reducing dilution and improving planning 1.
Market context
Silver and gold reached high levels in 2025, with the average realised silver price at 43.6 USD per ounce, up 51.4%, and gold at 3,532.7 USD per ounce, up 44.0% 1. Demand continues to outstrip supply, and the source describes a structural market deficit for silver supported by energy-transition technologies and safe-haven demand 1.
Silver demand comes from solar panels, electric vehicle batteries and 5G telecommunications, while gold demand comes from electronics and central bank reserves 1. Companies could be affected if geopolitical tensions ease or if profit-taking triggers a sharp price correction 1.
Trends
- Demand for precious metals as strategic assetstailwind
Central banks in emerging markets have continued to raise gold allocations, and geopolitical uncertainty supports the role of metals as safe havens 1. If tensions ease, safe-haven demand could weaken.
- Industrial demand for silvertailwind
Solar panels, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure support industrial silver demand, and the report notes a structural market deficit 1. Substitution in some applications could limit this growth over the long term.
- Competition for capital from income assetsheadwind
Rising yields on bonds and equities could draw investors away from precious metals, as the report warns 1. The effect is uncertain and depends on monetary policy.
- Trade policy and tariffsmixed
Tariffs remain a key issue for international trade, and the company expects them to become more negotiated and targeted 1. This environment could influence costs and supply chains, particularly for operations in Mexico 1.
Competitive position
Fresnillo competes with other large silver and gold producers for land, capital and skilled personnel, and the available sources do not provide a full list of competitors. The company points to the size of its resources and reserves and its low cost per ounce as advantages, though these must be assessed against metal prices 1.
The company stresses that access to new projects depends on strict acquisition criteria, such as resource base and existing infrastructure, which could limit the number of available opportunities 1. The relationship with the Mexican government remains central to its competitive position 1.
- Other large silver producers
Companies mining silver from their own mines or as by-products, competing with Fresnillo for projects and capital; the sources do not name them.
- North American gold producers
Companies operating in Mexico, Canada or the United States, relevant through competition for land and acquisitions in the region.
- Canadian exploration companies
Project developers that Fresnillo could compete with in acquisition processes, as in the case of Probe Gold Inc.
- South American miners
Operators in Peru and Chile, where Fresnillo already has exploration activity and is seeking further opportunities.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202423 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Fresnillo plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.