olivLaw · European equity research
FREY FREY.PA
France · Euronext Paris · Vertical: Listed companies from France
FREY is a development property company specialised in open-air retail parks in France and abroad, and it keeps most of the assets it develops. At 31 December 2025 its portfolio covered 89 300 m² of GLA with annualised rents of 15.5 M€, and in July 2024 it expanded into outlets through the acquisition of ROS.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, FREY (FREY.PA) stock was 34.40 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn EUR, P/E 14.2 on diluted EPS of 2.43 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.02, 52-week range 28.60–36.60 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 34.14 – 34.74
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.43 · band width 1.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 34.86 / 32.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.6% | −0.6% | +0.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.8% | −4.2% | +1.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.6% | +4.3% | −3.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.8% | +7.5% | +10.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.3% | +9.9% | +10.4 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | +18.9% | +49.8% | −30.9 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | +8.7% | +42.8% | −34.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 12.0, median 23.0, max 38.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 148.5 m | 191.3 m | 231.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +28.8% | +20.9% |
| Net income | 18.9 m | 40.0 m | 77.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +112.1% | +93.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.67 | 1.26 | 2.43 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +88.1% | +92.9% |
| net % | 12.7% | 20.9% | 33.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 244.7 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 1.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 3.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 6.9%
- ROA
- 2.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 148.5 m | 191.3 m | 231.4 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 93.4 m | 127.8 m | 169.6 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 48.6 m | 63.6 m | 63.5 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 30.5 m | 60.9 m | 105.1 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 5.7 m | 15.7 m | 30.3 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 18.9 m | 40.0 m | 77.4 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.67 | 1.26 | 2.43 | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 73.0 m | 321.3 m | 244.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 62.7 m | 64.0 m | 53.9 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.9 m | 15.7 m | 7.8 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 871.0 k | 1.7 m | 1.9 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 28.1 m | 31.7 m | 31.9 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
23% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 26.95 – 72.42 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E26.95 – 72.42 (Mid 41.63)20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 29.8x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 33.5% | 95 (vs peers) | 27% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.2x | 65 (vs peers) | 45% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial18/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial95/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial65/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FREY (FREY.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 231.4 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 20.9%; net margin 33.5%; ROE 7.4%.
The estimated value range is 26.95–72.42 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 41.63 EUR, the price of 34.40 EUR leaves a potential of 21.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 17.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 33.5%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| FREY.PAFrey | 1.1 bn | 14.2 | 7.4% | 33.5% | +20.9% | +19% / +16% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FREY.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 22.48 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 39.56 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 59.34 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 26.66 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 52.32 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 85.45 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 31.63 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 69.19 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 123.05 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 13.08
- Net margin± 9.16
- Annual revenue growth± 6.83
- Annual dilution± 0.77
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
FREY is a development property company specialised in open-air retail parks in France and abroad, and it keeps most of the assets it develops. At 31 December 2025 its portfolio covered 89 300 m² of GLA with annualised rents of 15.5 M€ 1, and in July 2024 it expanded into outlets through the acquisition of ROS 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The integrated development model, from land purchase to asset management, lets the company capture value on its own projects 1.
- Tenants are loyal because commercial licences belong to the building, so relocating requires a new CDAC procedure 1.
- The SIIC regime offers significant tax advantages, provided strict distribution rules are met 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on bank financinghigh
Debt above 1 100 M€ is mostly corporate, and changes in credit conditions could affect the cost and access to funding 1.
- SIIC distribution obligationshigh
If the company does not distribute enough of its SIIC taxable profit, it could lose the corporate tax exemption for that year 1.
- Classified installation risksmedium
Some tenants, such as food retailers, run classified installations under prefect oversight, and a shutdown could require site remediation by the company 1.
- Concentration on retailers and the French marketmedium
Revenue depends on tenants continuing to trade, and a crisis in one sector could affect several assets at once 1.
- Co-ownership regulationlow
Some assets are held in co-ownership, and the 2019 reform and the 3DS law change administration rules, which could create costs or disputes 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If retail investment keeps recovering and yields stay attractive, the value of the portfolio could support growth over time 1.
- The model of keeping assets and developing them in-house can create value beyond simple leasing 1.
- The ROS acquisition could open a new growth source in the outlet segment, seen as defensive 1.
What would break the thesis
- The 2025 profit rests on a one-off disposal gain, so the recurring earnings base could be smaller 1.
- Significant debt and dependence on bank terms could reduce flexibility if financing costs rise 1.
- The investment market remains selective, and economic uncertainty could slow disposals or acquisitions 1.
What to watch
- The general meeting voting on the proposed dividend of 2 € per share2026
- Trends in annualised rents and occupancy across the retail parksQ1 2027
- Integration and contribution of the ROS outlet division2027
- Evolution of debt and compliance with bank covenantsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
FREY develops, owns and manages open-air retail centres known as Shopping Promenade, integrating land acquisition, CDAC permits, construction and leasing to retailers 1. Its model rests on keeping assets on its balance sheet, so income comes mainly from rents rather than immediate sales of buildings 1. At 31 December 2025 the economic investment properties were valued at 2 052,7 M€ excluding duties, of which 1 940,9 M€ in operation 1.
The company works as an integrated property developer, with dedicated subsidiaries for development and for leasing and managing assets once operational 1. Its activity sits under the SIIC tax regime, which exempts rental income from corporate tax on condition of mandatory distributions 1. For fiscal 2025 the board proposes a dividend of 2 € per share 1.
The asset base mixes wholly owned properties with minority stakes in partnerships, such as the Designer Villages in Italy and Berlin held at 77 % 1. Debt stood at 1 167 M€ at the end of 2025, largely corporate, and all bank covenants were respected 1.
Segments
Open-air retail parks (Shopping Promenade)
This is the core activity, with open-air centres offering free parking, green spaces and environmental certifications, occupied by national and international retailers 1.
Outlets (ROS division)
The July 2024 acquisition of ROS, Europe's fourth-largest outlet operator, diversified FREY's strategy into the outlet segment, with assets in Italy and Berlin 1.
Market context
Trends
- Recovery in retail investmenttailwind
The rise in transaction volumes in 2025 and the return of large deals could support FREY's asset values if market liquidity keeps improving 1.
- Investor interest in outletstailwind
Outlets are seen as defensive assets with an attractive risk-return profile, which could favour acquisitions in the segment FREY entered through ROS 1.
- Lower interest ratesmixed
Falling interest rates helped the financial result in 2025, and their future path will shape the cost of debt 1.
- Economic uncertaintyheadwind
The still uncertain economic context could reduce demand for space or pressure yields, especially if rates stay high 1.
Competitive position
In France and Europe, FREY faces developer-promoters that sell completed schemes to investors, developer-investors that hold assets, and retailers with their own development structures 1. Competition spans land acquisition and permit obtaining, where an integrated developer position can matter 1.
FREY's edge lies in over thirty years of experience in peri-urban retail parks and in long relationships with anchor tenants such as Decathlon, Leroy Merlin and Boulanger 1. The source does not list US-listed competitors, so no US tickers are given 1.
- National and international developer-promoters
Firms that design and sell commercial schemes to investors, referred to generically in the report without names 1.
- Developer-investors in France and abroad
Players that hold commercial assets in the country and abroad, competing with FREY for the same assets 1.
- Retailers with in-house development structures
Retailers that develop space for their own account or for third parties, which can reduce demand for external developers 1.
- European outlet operators
Specialist outlet managers, a segment FREY entered through the ROS acquisition 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Europa nu are un „glonț de argint”, ea intră cu un handicap major în era AI / Interviu cu Carl Frey, Universitatea OxfordCursDeGuvernare.ro · 01 Oct 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202509 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / FREY · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.