olivLaw · European equity research
Foresight Group Holdings Limited FSG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Foresight Group Holdings Limited is a private markets platform focused on infrastructure, renewable energy and private equity, managing funds for institutional investors and retail clients through financial advisers. Amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, its ability to raise capital and protect its compliance reputation is central to the continuity of its strategy.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Foresight Group Holdings Limited (FSG.L) stock was 4.65 GBP (−3.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 524.9 m GBP, P/E 12.3 on diluted EPS of 0.38 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.83%, beta 0.75, 52-week range 3.45–5.03 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.32 – 4.85
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.62 · band width 11.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.59 / 4.34
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.05 / 0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.3% | −0.6% | +4.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.3% | −4.2% | −2.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.5% | +4.3% | +10.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +8.0% | +7.5% | +0.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.2% | +9.9% | −12.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +17.0% | +49.8% | −32.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +0.8% | +42.8% | −42.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.3, median 10.7, max 12.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 148.6 m | 164.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +10.9% |
| Net income | 33.2 m | 42.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +28.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +31.7% |
| net % | 22.4% | 26.0% |
| Free cash flow | 43.1 m | 41.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 41.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 252.0 k GBP
- Net debt
- -41.6 m GBP
- Equity
- 95.3 m GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 2.03x
- ROE
- 47.4%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- 25.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 148.6 m | 164.9 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.5 m | 10.2 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 142.2 m | 154.7 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 40.8 m | 54.0 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.2 m | 1.8 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 41.4 m | 53.9 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 7.5 m | 8.3 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 33.2 m | 42.8 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.29 | 0.38 | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.24 | 0.27 | esef· 07 Jul 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 43.3 m | 41.8 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 37.5 m | 42.6 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 81.7 m | 86.3 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.4 m | 5.9 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 53.4 m | 51.6 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 45.4 m | 40.6 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 138.0 k | 130.0 k | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 242.0 k | 122.0 k | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 52.0 m | 42.5 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 85.3 m | 95.3 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 115.0 m | 113.0 m | esef· 07 Jul 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 44.1 m | 46.3 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.0 m | 4.4 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 43.1 m ≈ | 41.9 m ≈ | esef· 30 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.9 m | -7.1 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -43.4 m | -40.2 m | esef· 30 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 524.9 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 95.0% | 100 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 26.0% | 77 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 97.7% | 97 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 30.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.3x | 72 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FORESIGHT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (FSG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 164.9 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth 10.9%; net margin 26.0%; ROE 47.4%.
The estimated value range is 4.27–6.16 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.31 GBP, the price of 4.64 GBP leaves a potential of 14.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 12.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 95.0%
- Net margin: 26.0%
- FCF conversion: 97.7%
- Interest coverage: 30.1x
- Current ratio: 2.0x
- P/E (TTM): 12.3x
- FCF yield: 8.0%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| FSG.LForesight Group Holdings Limited | 524.9 m | 12.3 | 47.4% | 26.0% | +10.9% | −2% / +15% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FSG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.93 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 5.17 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 7.76 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 3.23 Total return -15% · Per year -5% | 6.36 Total return 59% · Per year 17% | 10.44 Total return 152% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 3.55 Total return 3% · Per year 1% | 7.83 Total return 109% · Per year 16% | 14.03 Total return 256% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 1.59
- Net margin± 1.11
- Annual revenue growth± 0.86
- Annual dilution± 0.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Foresight Group Holdings Limited is a private markets platform focused on infrastructure, renewable energy and private equity, managing funds for institutional investors and retail clients through financial advisers. Amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, its ability to raise capital and protect its compliance reputation is central to the continuity of its strategy 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified private markets platform covering infrastructure, renewable energy and private equity, supported by a formal risk governance framework 1.
- Strong scores in the PRI assessment across several modules, indicating externally recognised responsible investment practice 1.
- Documented process for assessing biodiversity and environmental impact in real assets, with biodiversity-linked targets in credit facilities 1.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a few flagship products could expose revenues to a significant impact if one of them is lost 1.
- The internal audit function was recently established, so additional governance is still being built 1.
- The company acknowledges that biodiversity impacts cannot yet be quantified due to methodological and data limitations 1.
Opportunities
- Developing regional nature recovery blueprints for Australia, the Nordics and the Mediterranean could open new opportunities across existing funds 1.
- Use of artificial intelligence could improve operational efficiency and investment decision quality if it is properly controlled 1.
- Demand for renewable energy and storage could support growth in the real assets division 1.
Risks
- Fundraising riskhigh
Failure to attract sufficient capital could lead to missed investment opportunities and a weaker competitive position 1.
- Concentration on flagship productshigh
The loss of one of the key products could significantly affect group revenues, particularly in difficult market conditions 1.
- Geopolitical and macroeconomic riskmedium
Conflicts, trade disputes and market volatility could affect asset values and investment performance 1.
- Cyber and operational riskmedium
System disruptions or cyberattacks could affect client services and business continuity 1.
- Regulatory and reputational riskmedium
Non-compliance could lead to fines, legal action and damaged relationships with partners and investors 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If fundraising remains stable, the diversified platform could support long-term growth in asset management revenues 1.
- Renewable energy and storage assets could benefit from rising demand and a regulatory framework that favours the energy transition 1.
- The commitment to risk governance and responsible investment could strengthen confidence among institutional investors 1.
What would break the thesis
- If a flagship product is lost or underperforms, revenues could fall significantly given the current concentration 1.
- Market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty could discourage investors and slow new fundraising 1.
- Compliance and cybersecurity costs could rise, and additional governance is still under development 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of the governance framework after the establishment of the internal audit function2027
- Development of regional nature recovery strategies2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group operates as a diversified private markets platform with a focus on infrastructure, renewable energy and private equity strategies, according to its annual report for the year ended 31 March 2026 1. The core activity consists of attracting investor capital, managing funds and overseeing portfolio assets, including solar parks, hydropower plants and battery storage projects 1. The company operates internationally, with regulated entities and dedicated compliance and risk teams 1.
The business model depends on the ability to launch new products and maintain investor relationships, and fundraising risk is identified as a principal risk 1. The company aims to diversify its product range over time to reduce reliance on a few flagship funds whose loss could materially affect revenues 1.
The governance structure includes a three lines of defence model, with the Board, the Audit & Risk Committee and the Executive Committee responsible for risk oversight 1. The company has also begun preparations for UK Corporate Governance Code Provision 29 on risk management and material controls 1.
Segments
Real Assets
The real assets division includes investments in solar, wind, hydropower and battery storage, with funds such as Foresight Solar Fund and Foresight Energy Infrastructure Partners 1. These assets are also managed for biodiversity benefits, such as habitat restoration works at Lorca in Spain and the revegetation project at Hume in New South Wales 1.
Market context
Foresight operates in private markets, where raising capital depends on economic uncertainty, market volatility and investor preferences 1. The report notes that the risk environment remains highly dynamic, with geopolitical tensions, technological change and growing regulatory complexity 1.
The regulatory framework and investor expectations on sustainability, transparency and governance are changing, which could influence access to funding and product competitiveness 1. The company monitors these developments within its emerging risk process 1.
Trends
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind
Geopolitical tensions and market volatility could reduce investors' willingness to allocate capital to private funds, which could slow fundraising 1.
- Tighter regulatory requirementsmixed
Rising regulatory complexity and sustainability reporting expectations can raise compliance costs, but may also strengthen investor confidence if met 1.
- Energy transitiontailwind
Demand for renewable energy and battery storage could support the assets in the real assets division as European rules on battery passports and solar supply chains become stricter 1.
- Artificial intelligence and digitalisationmixed
Adoption of artificial intelligence tools could improve operational efficiency and data analysis, but brings risks relating to security, confidentiality and regulation 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name competitors, but it describes competition for investor capital and management mandates as a factor in fundraising risk 1. The competitive environment includes other private asset managers operating in infrastructure, energy and private equity 1.
The company notes that losing key mandates could have a material impact on revenues, which points to competitive pressure from other managers 1. Product diversification is presented as the response to this pressure 1.
- Other infrastructure and renewable energy asset managers
The report does not name competitors; they are described generically as infrastructure fund managers competing for capital.
- Private equity fund managers
Generic competition for investors and mandates in private equity funds, with no names given in the source.
- Asset managers with retail-facing products
Competition for retail clients through financial advisers, described in the report without company names.
- Energy storage investment funds
Competition for battery storage projects and energy assets, not explicitly identified in the source.
News & filings
In the press
- INTERVIEW: Key MEP slams Commission’s lack of foresight in chips lawEuractiv · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Foresight AI Brings Gremlin Agents to Reliability EngineeringInfoQ · 11 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202630 Jun 2026
- Annual report 202607 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Foresight Group Holdings Limited · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.