olivLaw · European equity research
Ferrexpo PLC FXPO.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B1XH2C03 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Ferrexpo is a vertically integrated producer of premium grade iron ore that sells to steelmakers in Europe, MENA and other regions. In 2025 it was hit by the war in Ukraine, the refusal to refund VAT and logistics difficulties, and it shifted toward higher-margin concentrates, which made up 48% of production.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Ferrexpo PLC (FXPO.L) stock was 0.33 GBP (+6.35% on the day), with beta 12.43, 52-week range 0.00–0.81 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.30 – 0.33
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.80 · band width 9.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.29 / 0.51
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.00 / 0.00
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.8% | −0.2% | +1.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | unavailable | −5.4% | unavailable | — |
| 6 months | +13.7% | +4.4% | +9.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −56.1% | +6.5% | −62.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −38.8% | +10.0% | −48.8 pp | +3.7% |
| 3 years | −56.9% | +48.6% | −105.5 pp | +24.5% |
| 5 years | −88.6% | +41.4% | −130.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 651.8 m | 933.3 m | 787.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +43.2% | −15.6% |
| Net income | -84.8 m | -50.0 m | -223.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -13.0% | -5.4% | -28.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 58.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 703.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 933.0 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.24x
- ROE
- -27.5%
- ROA
- -21.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 651.8 m | 933.3 m | 787.3 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | 71.1 m | 17.6 m | -210.3 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -68.4 m | -20.4 m | -212.6 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.4 m | 29.6 m | 11.3 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | -84.8 m | -50.0 m | -223.9 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.38 | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | esef· 08 Sept 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 115.2 m | 105.9 m | 58.4 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | 82.3 m | 39.8 m | 33.7 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | 201.4 m | 192.5 m | 129.0 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | 449.1 m | 406.2 m | 243.1 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 826.0 m | 723.9 m | 551.9 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 933.0 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 35.3 m | 55.8 m | 27.2 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 210.7 m | 232.6 m | 196.5 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 233.7 m | 263.3 m | 229.6 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn | 923.7 m | 703.4 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 588.3 m | 588.1 m | 588.3 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
10% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -28.4% | 17 (vs peers) | 60% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 36 (on a fixed band) | 40% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial36/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial17/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FERREXPO PLC (FXPO.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 787.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -15.6%; net margin -28.4%; ROE -27.5%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -28.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 101.0 bn | 13.1 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +3% / +82% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.4 bn | 14.1 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −7% / −16% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.0 bn | 24.4 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −11% / +155% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.3 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.3 bn | 16.4 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +21% / +162% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.0 bn | 10.6 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +8% / +37% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.5 bn | 11.1 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −2% / −24% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.8 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +66% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.6 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +7% / +126% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.7 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +27% / +16% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 757.3 m | 35.9 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +70% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 660.8 m | 14.2 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −9% / +24% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 496.9 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +72% / +9% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 480.3 m | 16.0 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −29% / +8% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 341.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −46% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 112.5 m | 28.7 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 10.3 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +340% / +878% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −11% / +154% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +61% / +64% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +4% / +111% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FXPO.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ferrexpo is a vertically integrated producer of premium grade iron ore that sells to steelmakers in Europe, MENA and other regions. In 2025 it was hit by the war in Ukraine, the refusal to refund VAT and logistics difficulties, and it shifted toward higher-margin concentrates, which made up 48% of production 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Liquidity riskhigh
Suspended VAT refunds could keep limiting available cash, affecting the ability to fund operations and investment 1.
- Logistics riskhigh
Access to Black Sea ports depends on security conditions and could limit export volumes 1.
- Energy riskmedium
The availability and cost of energy, including imports of more carbon-intensive electricity, could affect costs and environmental commitments 1.
- Security riskhigh
Missile and drone attacks on infrastructure could interrupt operations and affect the protection of employees 1.
- Governance risklow
The company has not yet met its board diversity targets, and the search for a new independent director is ongoing 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for concentrates and premium products keeps growing, the company could benefit from better margins and a more favourable product mix 1.
- If VAT refunds are restored, liquidity could recover and the capacity for investment and output growth could increase 1.
- A long-life resource base and vertical integration could support a competitive position if operations remain stable 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the refusal to refund VAT persists, liquidity could remain under pressure and limit investment 1.
- If access to Black Sea ports deteriorates, export volumes could fall 1.
- The company cannot give production and cost guidance for 2026 in the current environment, which could make forecasts less certain 1.
What to watch
- Restoration of VAT refunds and the effect on liquidity2026
- Export volumes through the Black Sea ports2026
- Pace of the planned new 70% Fe ultra-premium concentrate pellet feed2026
- Resource and reserve update for Belanovo and the next sustainability report2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ferrexpo operates a world-class magnetite orebody with three contiguous open pit mines and a modern processing plant, allowing it to deliver ore from extraction to finished product 1. It produces a range of premium products, including concentrates and pellets, tailored to customer needs and transported over owned multimodal logistics by rail, port, river and ocean 1. Customers are high-end steelmakers, and the global customer base reduces dependence on any one country or region 1.
Asset life is long, with more than 50 years of mine life, which supports long-term planning 1. The company describes product diversification, customer expansion and geographic spread as its main tools for reducing risk during the war 1.
Activity in 2025 was marked by adjustments: reduced capex, cost-cutting and a focus on higher-margin products, while volumes depend on logistics availability through Ukraine's Black Sea ports 1.
Segments
Concentrates and premium products
Concentrate output reached a record 2.9 million tonnes in 2025, equal to 48% of the production mix, up from 10% in 2024. Higher-margin premium-grade concentrates made up 44% of the total product sales mix 1.
Pellets
Pellet production remains part of the core operations, and C1 pellet cash costs fell slightly in 2025. No DR pellets were produced during the year, although some were sold from stockpiles 1.
Market context
The company argues that demand for premium iron products is growing faster than for lower-grade ores, and steelmakers prefer high-grade products for efficiency and the transition to green steel 1. Its proximity to EU and MENA markets could offer a demand arbitrage advantage if logistics remain functional 1.
The market still depends on export conditions, energy costs and flows through Black Sea ports, which the company describes as decisive for volumes shipped in 2026 1.
Trends
- Transition to green steeltailwind
Customers moving to lower-emission steel look for high-grade ore, which could support demand for the company's concentrates and premium products 1.
- Refusal to refund VATheadwind
The Ukrainian tax authorities' refusal to refund VAT has reduced liquidity and limited investment and social spending 1.
- Black Sea logisticsmixed
Access to Ukrainian Black Sea ports stayed open through 2025, but the continued availability of the route remains uncertain and determines export volumes 1.
- Energy costsheadwind
Higher energy and consumables prices were partly offset by cost cuts, but imports of more carbon-intensive electricity increased Scope 1 and 2 emissions 1.
Competitive position
The company differentiates itself from traditional producers of medium and low grade ore through its focus on premium products and concentrates. The source does not give a detailed list of competitors, so direct comparisons are limited to the context the report provides 1.
The competitive advantages the company cites are vertical integration, product diversification and a location closer to European and MENA markets than most global rivals 1.
- Traditional medium and low grade iron ore producers
The report contrasts Ferrexpo's premium strategy with producers of lower-grade ore, without naming specific companies 1.
- Global pellet and concentrate suppliers
Global rivals are mentioned in the context of distance from European and MENA markets, without further detail in the source 1.
- Regional transport and logistics operators
The company relies on its own infrastructure and multimodal routes, and competition in logistics is not detailed in the source 1.
- Regional steel producers
European and MENA steel customers are both sales outlets and part of the competitive context for access to raw material 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Ferrexpo Takes a Step Off the Brink With $100 Million in FundingBloomberg Markets · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202508 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ferrexpo PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.