olivLaw · European equity research
Gem Diamonds Limited GEMD.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Gem Diamonds operates essentially one mine, Letšeng in Lesotho, selling rough diamonds at high prices per carat. Revenue fell visibly in 2025 amid pressure in the diamond market, and refinancing of credit facilities due in December 2026 is now a central topic for the company. Total revenue was 98.4 million USD and underlying EBITDA only 3.9 million USD.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gem Diamonds Limited (GEMD.L) stock was 0.10 GBP (−20.00% on the day), with beta 0.54, 52-week range 0.03–0.15 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.07 – 0.15
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.34 · band width 66.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.10 / 0.05
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / 0.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.7% | −0.6% | −6.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +192.5% | −4.2% | +196.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +156.5% | +4.3% | +152.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +229.4% | +7.5% | +221.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +186.1% | +9.9% | +176.2 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −12.5% | +49.8% | −62.3 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −81.9% | +42.8% | −124.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 140.3 m | 154.2 m | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.9% | unavailable |
| Net income | -2.1 m | 2.9 m | -104.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −3,693.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.50 | 2.00 | -74.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +33.3% | −3,820.0% |
| net % | -1.5% | 1.9% | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 15.0 m | 45.4 m | 1.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 6.2 m USD
- Net debt
- 2.5 m USD
- Equity
- 178.6 m USD
- Total assets
- 279.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.03x
- Current ratio
- 2.34x
- ROE
- -51.8%
- ROA
- -33.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 140.3 m | 154.2 m | — | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 109.1 m | 111.4 m | 94.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 31.2 m | 42.8 m | 3.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 10.4 m | 18.8 m | -87.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 5.3 m | 7.2 m | 5.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.7 m | 12.4 m | -92.1 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -4.1 m | -3.4 m | -19.5 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -2.1 m | 2.9 m | -104.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.50 | 2.00 | -74.40 | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 16.5 m | 12.9 m | 3.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 62.4 m | 53.6 m | 60.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 298.6 m | 269.9 m | 211.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 387.5 m | 349.1 m | 279.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 23.4 m | 11.7 m | 5.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.2 m | 16.6 m | 6.2 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 59.8 m | 25.4 m | 26.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 161.7 m | 126.2 m | 101.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 225.8 m | 222.9 m | 178.6 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 35.0 m | 51.2 m | 6.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 20.0 m | 5.8 m | 4.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 15.0 m ≈ | 45.4 m ≈ | 1.9 m ≈ | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -57.1 m | -27.6 m | — | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 28.0 m | -26.7 m | -2.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -36.0% | 0 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Net margin · Quality | -67.4% | 11 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -15.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality4/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED (GEMD.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 154.2 m USD in 2024; YoY growth 9.9%; net margin -67.4%; ROE -82.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.3x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -36.0%
- Net margin: -67.4%
- Interest coverage: -15.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GEMD.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gem Diamonds operates essentially one mine, Letšeng in Lesotho, selling rough diamonds at high prices per carat. Revenue fell visibly in 2025 amid pressure in the diamond market, and refinancing of credit facilities due in December 2026 is now a central topic for the company. Total revenue was 98.4 million USD and underlying EBITDA only 3.9 million USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company operates a large mine producing high-quality diamonds and achieves a high average price per carat compared with the wider market, which supports sales value.
- The cost base was reduced through the BR Programme and insourcing, which improves the company's ability to withstand a weak market period.
- Long-standing relationships with lenders and a history of successful refinancing are viewed by management as support for funding plans.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a single mine makes revenues, profits and cash flows rely on one asset with a finite life.
- Cash generation is variable and marginal, limiting the company's capacity to fund investment and reduce debt.
- Low-grade orebodies make the operation sensitive to resource variability, which can affect mine planning.
Opportunities
- A recovery in rough prices could significantly improve revenue and cash flow, particularly if demand for high-quality diamonds grows.
- Partnerships for polished diamonds and varied sales channels could generate additional revenue.
- Management is assessing mergers and acquisitions, and efficiency gains at existing operations could unlock further value.
Threats
- Pressure on rough diamond prices from economic uncertainty, tariffs and synthetic diamonds could prolong weak revenue.
- Failure to refinance facilities due at the end of 2026 could affect the company's ability to continue operations.
- Country, regulatory and power supply risks could disrupt production or raise costs.
Risks
- Diamond price and demandhigh
Factors outside the company's control can affect diamond prices and demand, and short-term uncertainty in the sector can reduce rough prices.
- Refinancing of facilitieshigh
Debt facilities expiring at the end of 2026 must be refinanced to support the going concern assessment, and lender engagement is scheduled to start in the second quarter of 2026.
- Cash generation variabilitymedium
Marginal financial resources and variable cash flows could limit the company's ability to operate, service debt and fund projects.
- Reserves and resourcesmedium
Unexpected variation in volume, tonnage, grade or price could affect mine planning and financial stability in the short and medium term.
- Health and safetymedium
A major health or safety incident could affect employees, the licence to operate and compliance with the mining lease agreement.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the rough diamond market recovers, the revenue of a mine with high prices per carat could rise quickly, given the reduced cost structure.
- Management believes demand over the medium to long term could outpace supply, which would support high-quality diamonds.
- Relationships with lenders and the history of refinancings could help maintain access to capital.
What would break the thesis
- If rough prices remain under pressure, revenue and EBITDA could stay low, with thin margins.
- Dependence on a single mine with a finite life exposes the company to concentrated risks and reserve uncertainty.
- If refinancing is not completed in time, the company could face difficulties funding operations and investment.
What to watch
- Negotiation of the refinancing of credit facilities2026
- Trend in the average rough diamond price per caratQ1 2027
- Net debt position and availability of undrawn facilitiesnext 10-K
- Effect of the BR Programme on operating costs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Gem Diamonds Limited is a mining group focused mainly on the Letšeng mine in Lesotho, where it mines and sells high-quality rough diamonds. The company is listed in London and reports in US dollars. According to the annual report, the mine has a finite life, and revenues, profits and cash flows depend almost entirely on this operation 1.
The revenue structure is simple: rough diamond sales make up almost all turnover, supplemented by marginal revenue from partnerships and polished diamond sales. In 2025 fewer carats were sold, and the ore mix included more lower-value Main Pipe material 1.
Main costs include direct operating costs, energy (diesel and electricity) and royalties paid to the Government of Lesotho. The company restructured costs through the BR Programme, aiming to conserve cash and protect the balance sheet 1.
Segments
Letšeng (rough diamonds)
The Letšeng operation generates almost all group revenue from rough diamond sales. In 2025 fewer carats were sold than the year before, and the average price per carat fell, which significantly reduced revenue 1.
Sales and marketing
Diamond sales and marketing activity is run from Belgium and generates selling costs included in royalties and selling costs. Additional revenue from partnership margins and polished diamonds is small compared with rough sales 1.
Market context
Rough diamond prices remained under pressure through 2025, due to global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, US tariffs and the impact of synthetic diamonds on smaller categories. Management says demand over the medium to long term could outpace supply, but considers short-term uncertainty to remain high 1.
For viability modelling, the board adopted conservative assumptions with minimal to no real price growth, which shows that the company's performance depends largely on a market recovery. Management states that the leaner cost base has prepared it for a possible recovery 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not identify direct competitors. The company operates as a rough diamond producer with one large mine, and its pricing depends on overall diamond market conditions rather than its position against other producers named in the source.
The prices the company can obtain depend on stone quality and sales channels, including tenders. Flexibility in the sales process and partnerships for polished diamonds are used as tools to adapt to competition.
- Rough diamond producers
The source does not name specific competitors; competition comes from other rough diamond producers selling into the same markets.
- Synthetic diamonds
Synthetic diamonds are cited as a factor affecting smaller diamond categories, not as a competitor with a ticker.
- Other mining operations in Africa
Country and business environment risks in Africa are mentioned in the report, without being linked to named peer companies.
- Diamond buyers
Buyers and sales channels influence the price obtained, and the company uses tenders and partnerships to adapt its sales.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Gem Diamonds Limited · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.