olivLaw · European equity research
Gecina GFC.PA
France · Euronext Paris · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Gecina is a major owner and developer of real estate in the Paris region, with prime offices and a residential portfolio. In 2025 portfolio values rose as investment in prime offices showed signs of recovery, and the company guides to recurring net income per share of 6.70 to 6.75 euros for 2026, while its development pipeline is set for deliveries in 2026 and 2027. Total portfolio value stood at 17.6 billion euros at end-2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gecina (GFC.PA) stock was 65.60 EUR (+0.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.9 bn EUR, P/E 10.9 on diluted EPS of 6.03 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 8.31%, beta 0.44, 52-week range 59.40–82.80 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 60.70 – 66.06
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 8.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 64.28 / 70.83
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.35 / -0.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.6% | −0.6% | +7.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.4% | −4.2% | −8.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.2% | +4.3% | −15.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −18.9% | +7.5% | −26.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −17.7% | +9.9% | −27.6 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | −32.0% | +49.8% | −81.8 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | −47.4% | +42.8% | −90.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 13.4, median 17.5, max 21.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -1.8 bn | 309.8 m | 448.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +44.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -24.13 | 4.18 | 6.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +44.3% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 77.9 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 4.7 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 4.7 bn EUR
- Equity
- 10.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 18.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.45x
- Current ratio
- 0.26x
- ROE
- 4.2%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -1.6 bn | 426.8 m | 560.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 11.3 m | 11.7 m | 10.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.6 bn ≈ | 438.5 m ≈ | 570.1 m ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -1.8 bn | 312.6 m | 451.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.0 m | 2.1 m | 1.5 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.8 bn | 309.8 m | 448.2 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -24.13 | 4.18 | 6.03 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.45 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 143.7 m | 179.0 m | 77.9 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 473.9 m | 1.3 bn | 651.9 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 165.8 m | 165.8 m | 165.6 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 12.8 m | 11.7 m | 12.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 17.6 bn | 17.9 bn | 18.0 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.8 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 998.3 m | 1.8 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 10.6 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 73.9 m | 73.9 m | 74.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 535.0 m | 599.8 m | 479.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | 884.0 m | -405.9 m | -210.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.3 bn | -158.6 m | -370.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 36.0 k | 3.4 m | — | esef· 25 Feb 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.9 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 69.28 – 177.83 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · insufficient data
- Peers: P/E69.28 – 177.83 (Mid 107.31)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)74.12 – 101.07 (Mid 85.52)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.6% | 27 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 8.2x | 0 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.9x | 79 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 16.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.1% | 1 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial27/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial1/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GECINA (GFC.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 4.3%; net debt/EBITDA 8.2x.
The estimated value range is 71.70–139.45 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 96.42 EUR, the price of 65.60 EUR leaves a potential of 47.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 32.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 10.9x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 3.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 8.2x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 16.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GFC.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gecina is a major owner and developer of real estate in the Paris region, with prime offices and a residential portfolio. In 2025 portfolio values rose as investment in prime offices showed signs of recovery, and the company guides to recurring net income per share of 6.70 to 6.75 euros for 2026, while its development pipeline is set for deliveries in 2026 and 2027. Total portfolio value stood at 17.6 billion euros at end-2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Portfolio concentrated in central Paris, with a large share of prime and certified assets, supported by a liquid asset base.
- Solid credit rating, with access to competitive financing and a leverage structure the company describes as prudent.
- Established experience in repositioning older buildings and in developing projects with high yields.
Weaknesses
- Exposure to secondary areas and La Défense remains vulnerable to value adjustments and higher vacancy.
- Major developments have long delivery periods, so their contribution to income arrives with a lag.
- Dependence on the Paris market exposes the company to local factors such as regulation and the pace of investment in the capital.
Opportunities
- A recovery in prime office investment and demand for modern buildings could support new disposals at good prices and acquisitions.
- Delivery of development projects in 2026-2027 could add significant income if occupancy is achieved quickly.
- The student housing and yield-oriented residential segments could grow with new projects.
Threats
- A renewed rise in interest rates could reduce property values and increase the cost of financing.
- A slowdown in the French economy could weigh on office demand and rent levels.
- Tax changes, such as adjustments to transfer duties, could influence values and yields.
Risks
- Dependence on property valueshigh
Portfolio value, which underpins NAV, could fall if yields rise or demand weakens.
- Exposure to secondary areasmedium
Peripheral segments and La Défense have seen value declines and could keep suffering if vacancy stays high.
- Development execution riskmedium
Delays or cost overruns on development projects could postpone expected deliveries and income.
- Refinancing risklow
Debt maturities and market conditions could affect refinancing costs, although a large share of the debt is hedged.
- Tax and regulatory changesmedium
Changes to transfer duties or urban planning rules could affect values and the timing of investments.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If investment in prime offices keeps recovering, central-area values could rise further, supporting NAV and recurring earnings.
- Delivery of the 2026-2027 development projects could bring new rental income that offsets tenant departures in some buildings.
- A prudent financial structure and high liquidity could allow the company to seize acquisition opportunities when the market becomes more favourable.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates rise again, property values could fall, affecting NAV and the capacity to sustain the dividend.
- Secondary areas and La Défense could remain under pressure, limiting overall growth in portfolio values.
- Delays in leasing new buildings could postpone the income contribution of projects and affect medium-term guidance.
What to watch
- Recurring net income per share against the 6.70-6.75 euro guidance range2026
- Evolution of central-area values and capitalisation yieldsQ1 2027
- Delivery and leasing timetable of the development pipeline2027
- Pace of residential asset disposals and reinvestment of proceedsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Gecina owns and manages a property portfolio, mainly offices in central Paris and Neuilly-sur-Seine, plus residential assets and student housing. Its strategy combines selective acquisitions, repositioning of older buildings, development of new projects and disposals of mature assets, aiming to keep a high-quality portfolio and controlled leverage. The company reports EPRA indicators and supports its dividend policy on recurring earnings 1.
Portfolio value reached 17.6 billion euros at 31 December 2025, and during 2025 values rose 2.3 percent on a like-for-like basis, mainly driven by central areas. The company financed acquisitions and developments through disposals and long-dated debt, while keeping an A–/A3 rating 1.
The dividend policy aims for gradual growth of distributions over the medium term, based on rental income growth, cost discipline and the financing structure. The proposed dividend for 2025 is 5.50 euros per share, paid entirely in cash, and the company expects gradual dividend growth over 2026-2030 1.
Segments
Offices
Offices are the main segment, with values of 14,743 million euros at end-2025, and central areas (Paris QCA, other Paris, Neuilly) rose 4.6 percent on a like-for-like basis. In 2025 the company acquired assets such as Bloom and Rocher-Vienne and has several office developments due for delivery between late 2026 and 2027 1.
Market context
The Paris market showed signs of a recovery in prime office investment, with volumes up on 2024, while rents in central areas continued to support values. Secondary areas and La Défense remained under pressure, with lower values and higher yields. The company considers that demand for prime, well-connected buildings is growing 1.
The French macroeconomic backdrop described by the company could support demand over the medium term if growth consolidates and rent indexation recovers. The company monitors the pace of rate normalisation and indexation, which affect portfolio values and yields 1.
Trends
- Recovery in prime office investmenttailwind
Signs of a recovery in investment volumes for prime Paris offices could support central-area values if the trend is confirmed.
- Demand polarising toward prime buildingsmixed
Occupiers increasingly prefer prime, well-connected buildings with services, which could widen the gap between central and secondary areas.
- Pace of rent indexationheadwind
Weak indexation in 2026 and its later normalisation could limit rental income growth in the short term but support recovery over the medium term.
- Cost of financingtailwind
The developer's hedging structure, with a large share of fixed-rate debt, could limit the effect of higher capital costs on results.
Competitive position
Gecina competes in the Paris office and residential market with other large listed owners and developers, as well as with investment funds seeking prime assets. The company differentiates itself through the density of its central-area portfolio and its ability to reposition older buildings.
Competitive pressure is greater in secondary areas and La Défense, where the availability of quality buildings and demand are more volatile. The company's advantage could persist if it keeps its leading position in the prime segment.
- Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield
European commercial and office property company with significant activity in France.
- Covivio
French office and residential owner and developer present in the Paris market.
- Icade
Listed French real estate company active in offices and property services.
- European real estate investment funds
Institutional investors competing for the acquisition of prime Paris assets.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Gecina · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.