olivLaw · European equity research
MJ Gleeson plc GLE.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BRKD9Z53 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
MJ Gleeson plc is a British housebuilder focused on affordable homes in northern England and the Midlands, with a land promotion arm, Gleeson Land. In fiscal 2025 group revenue reached £365.8m, but margins were squeezed by build cost inflation, so the 3,000-homes-a-year goal depends on margin recovery and on opening sites faster.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, MJ Gleeson plc (GLE.L) stock was 2.77 GBP (−3.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 161.4 m GBP, P/E 10.2 on diluted EPS of 0.27 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.98%, beta 0.73, 52-week range 2.21–4.27 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.64 – 2.98
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 12.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.70 / 2.80
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.04 / 0.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.5% | −0.6% | +1.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.2% | −4.2% | +4.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.6% | +4.3% | +6.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −34.2% | +7.5% | −41.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −21.0% | +9.9% | −30.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −33.1% | +49.8% | −82.9 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −66.3% | +42.8% | −109.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 9.0, median 14.6, max 15.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 328.3 m | 345.3 m | 365.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.2% | +5.9% |
| Net income | 24.2 m | 19.3 m | 15.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −20.1% | −18.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −20.3% | −17.9% |
| net % | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | -18.9 m | 15.9 m | -6.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Jun 2025
- Cash
- 6.5 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 5.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- -1.5 m GBP
- Equity
- 307.7 m GBP
- Total assets
- 419.4 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- 4.40x
- ROE
- 5.2%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- FCF margin
- -1.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 328.3 m | 345.3 m | 365.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 238.2 m | 260.8 m | 282.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 90.1 m | 84.5 m | 83.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Operating income | 32.5 m | 28.6 m | 24.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 2.3 m | 3.8 m | 3.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 30.5 m | 24.8 m | 20.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Income tax | 6.3 m | 5.5 m | 4.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Net income | 24.2 m | 19.3 m | 15.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.27 | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.11 | esef· 28 Oct 2025derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.2 m | 12.9 m | 6.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Receivables | 13.9 m | 9.3 m | 19.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Inventories | 344.6 m | 345.2 m | 380.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Current assets | 364.3 m | 368.2 m | 407.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 11.2 m | 9.3 m | 8.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Total assets | 376.3 m | 378.0 m | 419.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 68.7 m | 60.6 m | 79.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 5.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 73.9 m | 63.6 m | 92.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 90.3 m | 80.3 m | 111.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Equity | 286.0 m | 297.7 m | 307.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 58.3 m | 58.3 m | 58.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -14.4 m | 18.0 m | -3.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Capex | 4.4 m | 2.0 m | 2.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -18.9 m ≈ | 15.9 m ≈ | -6.0 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.2 m | -1.3 m | -1.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -11.0 m | -8.9 m | -3.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 9.9 m | 7.6 m | 6.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 330.0 k | 106.0 k | 69.0 k | esef· 28 Oct 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 161.4 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.3% | 25 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.3% | 37 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -37.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.6x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.2x | 83 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -3.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.0% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet87/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial57/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MJ GLEESON PLC (GLE.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 365.8 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth 5.9%; net margin 4.3%; ROE 5.2%.
The estimated value range is 2.07–3.03 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.55 GBP, the price of 2.77 GBP leaves a potential of -7.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -8.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 6.6x
- Current ratio: 4.4x
- P/E (TTM): 10.2x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 6.3%
- FCF conversion: -37.9%
- FCF yield: -3.7%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| GLE.LMj Gleeson PLC | 161.4 m | 10.2 | 5.2% | 4.3% | +5.9% | −29% / −37% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GLE.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.66 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 2.93 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 4.41 Total return 65% · Per year 65% |
| 3 years | 1.66 Total return -31% · Per year -11% | 3.29 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 5.43 Total return 113% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 1.65 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 3.69 Total return 57% · Per year 9% | 6.68 Total return 173% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 0.82
- Net margin± 0.58
- Annual revenue growth± 0.47
- Annual dilution± 0.05
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MJ Gleeson plc is a British housebuilder focused on affordable homes in northern England and the Midlands, with a land promotion arm, Gleeson Land. In fiscal 2025 group revenue reached £365.8m 1, but margins were squeezed by build cost inflation, so the 3,000-homes-a-year goal depends on margin recovery and on opening sites faster.
SWOT
Strengths
- A established position in affordable housing, with prices that remain accessible to buyers.
- Balance sheet liquidity sufficient for new site investment, according to management.
- Gleeson Land has an extensive pipeline and an analytics capability management regards as advanced.
Weaknesses
- Gross margins fell sharply and performance was below the initial expectations of management.
- Cost and procedure controls were criticised internally, which led to the reorganisation.
- The customer recommendation score slipped, so the five-star goal is still unmet.
Opportunities
- If site openings accelerate, volumes could return toward the medium-term objective.
- Broadening the range, including one-bedroom apartments, could attract new buyer groups.
- Partnerships with housing associations could become a larger sales source if funding stabilises.
Threats
- Build cost inflation could keep compressing margins.
- An under-resourced planning system could continue to delay site openings.
- Changes in building regulations could raise costs across the life of developments.
Risks
- Margin pressurehigh
If build costs keep rising without a recovery in selling prices, profitability could stay weak.
- Planning delayshigh
Bottlenecks in the planning system could postpone site openings and reduce future volumes.
- Consumer confidencemedium
If confidence stays fragile, demand could remain below historic levels and require larger incentives.
- Regulation and carbon costsmedium
Changes in construction standards and carbon pricing could raise costs over the life of developments.
- Customer satisfactionlow
A lower recommendation score could hurt reputation and repeat sales if it is not corrected.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If margins recover as new sites open, profitability could rise sharply, in line with management's view.
- Gleeson Land, with a larger portfolio and better bid win rates, could add to growth in the period ahead.
- Structural demand for affordable homes in northern England and the Midlands could support volumes over the medium term.
What would break the thesis
- If build cost inflation persists, margins could stay below past levels even with higher volumes.
- Planning delays could keep postponing growth and the timetable for stated objectives.
- Dependence on a housing market with fragile confidence could leave sales short of management's ambitions.
What to watch
- Gleeson Homes gross margin trend and build cost inflationFiscal 2026
- Number of sites opened against the planned range of 20 to 30Fiscal 2026
- Open-market net reservation rate after the fiscal 2025 year endFiscal 2026
- Gleeson Land contribution to profit, given the expected growth from fiscal 20272027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Gleeson runs two divisions: Gleeson Homes, which builds and sells affordable homes, and Gleeson Land, which secures and promotes land for residential development mainly in the South of England. The company describes its mission as 'Changing lives by building affordable, quality homes, where they are needed' 1. In fiscal 2025 Gleeson Homes sold 1,793 homes and Gleeson Land reported an operating profit of £7.0m 1.
The model rests on a pipeline of owned and conditionally purchased plots, which stood at 19,638 plots 1. The company also builds a partnerships channel with housing associations and private rental investors, targeting about 20% of home sales from partnership sites 1. Its structure was reorganised in 2025 under Project Transform, which removed the Gleeson Homes chief executive role.
The medium-term objective is 3,000 homes a year, reached by selling from around 100 sites at a net reservation rate of 0.60 units per site per week 1. The Board has said group profitability could broadly triple if this objective is achieved 1.
Segments
Gleeson Homes
This division accounts for most of group revenue, at £348.2m in fiscal 2025 1. Gross margin fell to 20.7% from 24.1%, and operating profit before exceptional items dropped to £22.3m 1. The average selling price rose 4.3%, but underlying selling price growth was only 0.6% 1.
Gleeson Land
The land division completed the sale of five sites under planning promotion agreements, with potential for 996 plots 1. Its portfolio comprises 77 sites, and management reports a stronger pipeline of planning applications 1. Management expects profitability to remain broadly flat in fiscal 2026 and to grow significantly from fiscal 2027 1.
Market context
The housing market in the company's regions is described as comparatively stable, with demand holding up but consumer confidence still fragile 1. Open-market net reservations in the second half of fiscal 2025 were up 28% on the prior year, though still below historic levels 1. Build cost inflation and planning delays remain the main constraints 1.
The company sees a structural undersupply of housing in its regions, which could support demand over the medium term if affordability keeps improving 1. Private rental investment and renewed housing association interest from spring 2026 are seen as supporting factors 1.
Trends
- Build cost inflationheadwind
Rising build costs compressed Gleeson Homes margins and remain the main factor that could determine future profitability 1.
- Lower interest ratestailwind
The latest reduction in August 2025 and improved affordability, especially in the North and Midlands, are noted by management 1.
- Planning system delaysheadwind
Delays in planning approvals have slowed site openings and could limit volumes if they persist 1.
- Affordable housing funding and partnershipsmixed
Government announcements on affordable housing funding could revive housing association demand if they are confirmed in time 1.
Competitive position
The source does not name specific competitors. The company benchmarks itself against UK housebuilders generally, and its claim to be the fastest-growing listed housebuilder suggests the reference group is other London-listed developers 1.
The advantages cited are prices below new-build averages in its regions and a land pipeline supported by analytics 1. Competitive risk comes from possible pricing pressure in a market where demand remains fragile 1.
- London-listed housebuilders
The source names no specific competitors, so no ticker is given.
- Regional private developers
They compete for land and buyers in the same regions; none are named in the source.
- Housing associations
Not direct competitors but partners whose funding shapes demand for affordable homes.
- Other land promoters
They compete for promotion agreements and planning opportunities in the South of England.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2025
- Annual report 202424 Oct 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / MJ Gleeson plc · 30 Jun 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.