olivLaw · European equity research
Greencore Group plc GNC.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Greencore Group plc is a UK producer of convenience food sold largely to retail customers, a profile that matters for retailers and consumers in the United Kingdom. For fiscal 2025 the company reported a Group audit materiality of 7.78 million pounds sterling, and the proposed Bakkavor acquisition makes integration the central topic of the period, per the annual report.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Greencore Group plc (GNC.L) stock was 3.00 GBP (−0.73% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn GBP, P/E 23.8 on diluted EPS of 0.13 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.32, 52-week range 1.92–3.07 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 73.4
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.65 – 3.08
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.82 · band width 15.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.65 / 2.49
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / 0.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +20.6% | −0.2% | +20.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +13.8% | −5.4% | +19.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +27.1% | +4.4% | +22.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.0% | +6.5% | +11.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +29.2% | +10.0% | +19.3 pp | +3.7% |
| 3 years | +230.9% | +48.6% | +182.3 pp | +24.5% |
| 5 years | +122.7% | +41.4% | +81.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.5, median 17.8, max 18.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −5.6% | +7.7% |
| Net income | 35.9 m | 46.3 m | 57.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +29.0% | +24.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +37.5% | +27.3% |
| net % | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| Free cash flow | 63.0 m | 80.5 m | 122.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 26 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 81.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 151.9 m GBP
- Net debt
- 70.1 m GBP
- Equity
- 492.0 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.31x
- Current ratio
- 0.68x
- ROE
- 12.2%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- FCF margin
- 6.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 568.8 m | 599.6 m | 632.5 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 66.0 m | 84.3 m | 101.1 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 21.5 m | 23.8 m | 22.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 45.2 m | 61.5 m | 79.5 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Income tax | 9.3 m | 15.2 m | 21.9 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | 35.9 m | 46.3 m | 57.6 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.13 | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 116.5 m | 57.3 m | 81.8 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Receivables | 234.2 m | 232.6 m | 276.9 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Inventories | 72.9 m | 66.4 m | 68.0 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Current assets | 424.5 m | 357.5 m | 427.4 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 315.5 m | 300.7 m | 299.3 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 446.0 m | 431.0 m | 509.8 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 144.7 m | 57.8 m | 95.6 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 125.8 m | 147.6 m | 56.3 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 618.4 m | 508.1 m | 630.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 837.9 m | 754.5 m | 780.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | 459.8 m | 450.2 m | 492.0 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 498.6 m | 458.4 m | 436.4 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 99.0 m | 112.0 m | 165.6 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Capex | 36.0 m | 31.5 m | 42.7 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 63.0 m ≈ | 80.5 m ≈ | 122.9 m ≈ | esef· 03 Dec 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -31.3 m | -31.7 m | -43.4 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -81.5 m | -98.7 m | -85.5 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.9 m | 5.5 m | 9.8 m | esef· 03 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 12.6% | 46 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.0% | 31 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 213.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.5x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.8x | 17 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 9.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.7% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet27/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial11/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation54/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Greencore Group plc (GNC.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 7.7%; net margin 3.0%; ROE 12.2%.
The estimated value range is 2.42–3.47 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.89 GBP, the price of 3.00 GBP leaves a potential of -3.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 213.4%
- FCF yield: 9.4%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- P/E (TTM): 23.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.7%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 101.0 bn | 13.1 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +3% / +82% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.4 bn | 14.1 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −7% / −16% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.0 bn | 24.4 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −11% / +155% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.3 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.3 bn | 16.4 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +21% / +162% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.0 bn | 10.6 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +8% / +37% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.5 bn | 11.1 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −2% / −24% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.8 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +66% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.6 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +7% / +126% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.7 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +27% / +16% |
| GNC.LGreencore Group plc | 1.3 bn | 23.8 | 12.2% | 3.0% | +7.7% | +25% / +203% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 757.3 m | 35.9 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +70% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 660.8 m | 14.2 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −9% / +24% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 496.9 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +72% / +9% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 480.3 m | 16.0 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −29% / +8% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 341.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −46% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 112.5 m | 28.7 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 10.3 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +340% / +878% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −11% / +154% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +61% / +64% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GNC.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.92 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 3.38 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 5.09 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 1.98 Total return -34% · Per year -13% | 3.93 Total return 31% · Per year 9% | 6.47 Total return 116% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 2.05 Total return -32% · Per year -7% | 4.56 Total return 52% · Per year 9% | 8.22 Total return 174% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 0.98
- Net margin± 0.69
- Annual revenue growth± 0.55
- Annual dilution± 0.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Greencore Group plc is a UK producer of convenience food sold largely to retail customers, a profile that matters for retailers and consumers in the United Kingdom. For fiscal 2025 the company reported a Group audit materiality of 7.78 million pounds sterling 1, and the proposed Bakkavor acquisition makes integration the central topic of the period, per the annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- An extensive production and distribution network, with numerous daily deliveries to stores, provides capacity that is hard to replicate quickly.
- Volume growth above the market in core categories shows that customer relationships and the commercial strategy are working.
- Governance is structured, with dedicated audit, risk and nomination committees, and the board includes a balanced share of women.
Weaknesses
- Core categories operate in mature markets, which limits opportunities for volume and revenue growth.
- Reliance on a few large customers means that losing one important client would have significant effects on results.
- Cyber risk exposure has increased, and customer incidents have already affected volumes.
Opportunities
- The Bakkavor integration, if successful, could bring synergies and extend the group's operational footprint.
- The pipeline of new contracts and product innovation could open growth in new categories.
- Data analysis and consumer trend monitoring could help build a portfolio more relevant to consumers.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruption could affect ingredient costs and availability.
- Structural shifts in health and climate preferences could reduce demand for current products.
- Competitive pressure and evolving regulation could limit margins and operational flexibility.
Risks
- Bakkavor acquisition integrationhigh
Ineffective planning of the integration of two large businesses could impede the anticipated benefits, according to the report.
- Customer concentrationhigh
Key customer relationships are a principal risk, since losing an important partner would have a significant impact.
- Cyber riskmedium
Rising cyber threats have already affected customer volumes and require constant operational control.
- Supply chainmedium
Supply chain disruption, including through geopolitical tensions, could affect production and daily deliveries.
- Category maturitylow
Mature core categories limit growth, and new consumer preferences could reduce the relevance of the portfolio.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Bakkavor integration proceeds as planned, the company could capture synergies and greater scale in convenience food production.
- Volume growth above the market in core categories suggests the commercial strategy can support share gains.
- The extensive production and distribution network and solid customer relationships could provide a stable base for new contracts.
What would break the thesis
- If the Bakkavor integration runs into difficulties, the anticipated benefits could be delayed and costs could rise.
- Mature markets and shifting consumer preferences could limit long-term growth.
- Reliance on large customers and cyber exposure could lead to volume volatility.
What to watch
- Progress of the Bakkavor integration and delivery against synergy targets2026
- Volume development in core categories relative to the marketQ1 2026
- New business wins and their annualised impact2026
- Application of the 2024 UK Corporate Governance Code in the next financial year2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group produces and delivers fresh convenience food to retail customers, according to the annual report for the year ended 26 September 2025 1. The business rests on an extensive production and distribution network, which the company describes as market-leading capacity 1. The report also mentions daily deliveries to stores, numbering around ten thousand 1.
The governance structure includes a board with half female representation, an audit and risk committee and a nomination and governance committee, reflecting a formalised oversight framework 1. The company applies an ERM framework with principal, functional and emerging risks reported to a risk oversight committee 1.
The current strategy aims at growth in core categories and expansion through partnerships, and the recommended acquisition of Bakkavor is treated as a central element of the transformation plan 1. The external auditor is Deloitte Ireland LLP 1.
Segments
Core categories
The group's core categories operate in mature and stable markets, which the report notes may limit volume and revenue growth 1. The company nonetheless reported volume growth ahead of market growth in these categories 1.
Market context
The market in which Greencore operates is highly competitive, and demand for convenience food could be influenced by health, climate and structural shifts in consumer preferences, as the emerging risks in the report describe 1. Profitability depends on volumes shipped to retailers and on keeping products relevant 1.
The regulatory environment and the supply chain are also important external factors, and geopolitical tensions and climate effects could disrupt production and distribution 1.
Trends
- Bakkavor integrationmixed
Integrating the proposed Bakkavor acquisition could bring synergies if planning and execution succeed, but an ineffective process could delay the anticipated benefits 1.
- Consumer preferencesheadwind
Structural shifts in preferences linked to health and climate could reduce demand for convenience food in the current portfolio, according to the report 1.
- Growth in core categoriestailwind
Volume growth above the market in core categories suggests that the commercial strategy can offset market maturity 1.
- Cyber threatheadwind
The evolving cyber threat landscape and volume volatility caused by customer cyber incidents are reported as elevated risks 1.
Competitive position
Greencore operates in highly competitive markets, where failing to respond quickly to product innovations or intensified competition could affect results, according to the annual report 1. The company tracks market share weekly and competitor activity 1.
Reported competitive strengths include production and distribution capacity, flexibility in meeting customer needs and consistent quality controls 1. The sources do not explicitly name direct competitors, so the analysis stays at the level the report describes 1.
- Category competitors cited in the report
The report describes general competition in convenience food segments without naming specific firms.
- Large retail customers
Retail customers are both partners and a source of pressure on prices and volumes, per the risks described.
- Fresh food producers
Competition in fresh food appears in the company's market analysis without named entities in the source.
- Private label suppliers
The report mentions competitive pressure on the portfolio without detailing specific players.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202503 Dec 2025
- Annual report 202418 Dec 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-09-26 (ESEF) · SEC / Greencore Group plc · 26 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.