olivLaw · European equity research
Greggs plc GRG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B63QSB39 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Greggs is a British food-to-go chain with company-run shops, franchises and a vertically integrated model, gaining share in a shrinking market. In fiscal 2025 total sales reached £2,151 million, while underlying profit fell on higher fixed costs and pressure on consumer incomes.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Greggs plc (GRG.L) stock was 23.88 GBP (+1.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.4 bn GBP, P/E 20.0 on diluted EPS of 1.19 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.89%, beta 0.40, 52-week range 14.18–23.88 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 21.25 – 24.31
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.86 · band width 13.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 20.31 / 17.46
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.94 / 0.99
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.5% | −0.6% | +17.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +24.1% | −4.2% | +28.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +59.2% | +4.3% | +54.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +42.1% | +7.5% | +34.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +48.6% | +9.9% | +38.7 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −3.8% | +49.8% | −53.6 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −23.7% | +42.8% | −66.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.1, median 18.4, max 18.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.3% | +6.8% |
| Net income | 142.5 m | 153.4 m | 122.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +7.6% | −20.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.39 | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +7.5% | −20.3% |
| net % | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Free cash flow | 121.3 m | 88.6 m | 73.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 70.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 25.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- -45.8 m GBP
- Equity
- 625.2 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.5 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.04x
- Current ratio
- 0.56x
- ROE
- 20.4%
- ROA
- 8.7%
- FCF margin
- 3.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 710.5 m | 770.8 m | 829.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 192.3 m | 209.4 m | 183.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 10.1 m | 13.6 m | 18.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 188.3 m | 203.9 m | 167.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 45.8 m | 50.5 m | 45.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 142.5 m | 153.4 m | 122.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.39 | 1.50 | 1.19 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.60 | 1.05 | 0.69 | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 195.3 m | 125.3 m | 70.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 53.8 m | 62.4 m | 69.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 48.8 m | 55.2 m | 55.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 297.9 m | 242.9 m | 195.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 510.3 m | 664.7 m | 832.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 211.1 m | 243.9 m | 272.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 0 | 25.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 272.5 m | 310.2 m | 347.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 598.8 m | 749.2 m | 858.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 530.9 m | 570.5 m | 625.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 101.4 m | 101.8 m | 101.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 310.8 m | 318.6 m | 337.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 189.5 m | 230.0 m | 263.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 121.3 m ≈ | 88.6 m ≈ | 73.7 m ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -191.2 m | -224.8 m | -284.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -115.9 m | -163.8 m | -107.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 60.8 m | 106.8 m | 70.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.0 m | 5.0 m | 0 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 48 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.4 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality59
- Returns39
- Balance sheet60
- Valuation32
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 48/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 26.2% | 79 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.7% | 40 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 60.3% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.0x | 28 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.0% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.9% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 95.4% | 35 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns39/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GREGGS PLC (GRG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 6.8%; net margin 5.7%; ROE 20.4%.
The estimated value range is 9.32–12.32 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.58 GBP, the price of 23.88 GBP leaves a potential of -55.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -125.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 48/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 26.2%
- Interest coverage: 10.1x
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- P/E (TTM): 20.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| GRG.LGreggs PLC | 2.4 bn | 20.0 | 20.4% | 5.7% | +6.8% | +53% / −3% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GRG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.52 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 25.65 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 38.60 Total return 65% · Per year 65% |
| 3 years | 14.75 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 29.25 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 48.24 Total return 115% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 14.99 Total return -25% · Per year -6% | 33.36 Total return 57% · Per year 10% | 60.29 Total return 176% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 7.31
- Net margin± 5.12
- Annual revenue growth± 4.11
- Annual dilution± 0.43
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Greggs is a British food-to-go chain with company-run shops, franchises and a vertically integrated model, gaining share in a shrinking market. In fiscal 2025 total sales reached £2,151 million, while underlying profit fell on higher fixed costs and pressure on consumer incomes.
SWOT
Strengths
- The brand is strong and frequently ranked highly for value and awareness, and vertical integration gives control over quality and costs 1.
- The company increased market share while market visits declined, showing an ability to attract customers even in difficult periods 1.
- The model combines company shops, franchise and partnerships, diversifying revenue sources and reducing dependence on a single channel 1.
Weaknesses
- Higher fixed costs for capacity reduced underlying operating profit, and operating leverage means lower volumes weigh heavily 1.
- Interest income on cash deposits fell and lease interest charges rose as the estate grows, compressing pre-tax profit 1.
- Dependence on a food-to-go market sensitive to disposable incomes leaves demand exposed to economic cycle changes 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion through new shops, supermarket partnerships and delivery could increase access to products if capacity investments deliver as expected 1.
- Developing digital channels, click-and-collect and extending evening trade could add volume without substantially raising fixed costs 1.
- Products focused on protein, fibre and smaller portions could open new categories if well positioned against consumer preferences 1.
Threats
- Pressure on consumer incomes could continue to reduce visit frequency, and management expects this pressure to remain a factor in 2026 1.
- Dietary shifts and use of weight-management medications could reduce demand for calorie-dense products, potentially affecting sales in some categories 1.
- Cyber risks, retail crime and climate risks could disrupt operations, and the company treats these as core business risks 1.
Risks
- Pressure on saleshigh
Falling market visits and pressure on incomes could reduce like-for-like sales and affect margins, especially if fixed costs remain high 1.
- Fixed costs and operating leveragehigh
Investment in manufacturing, logistics and technology raises fixed costs; if volumes do not follow the expected path, operating profit could fall further 1.
- Cyber securitymedium
Cyber threats are intensifying, and while the company reports strong oversight, a major incident could affect operational systems and sensitive data 1.
- Food safety and allergensmedium
Allergen management is a material risk for a food business; management reports progress, but any failure could have reputational and legal consequences 1.
- Retail crime and climate riskslow
Theft and anti-social behaviour can affect profitability and colleague safety, and extreme weather can disrupt supply, though geographic diversification reduces exposure 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company gained market share in a shrinking market, suggesting a strong brand and an offer well aligned with the value consumers perceive 1.
- Expansion through shops, franchise and partnerships gives more customer touchpoints and could support medium-term growth if capacity investments deliver 1.
- The vertically integrated model and supply chain investment could improve long-term margins if volumes recover and fixed costs are absorbed 1.
What would break the thesis
- Underlying pre-tax profit fell and higher fixed costs could squeeze margins if volumes stay weak for longer 1.
- Pressure on consumer incomes and dietary shifts could reduce visit frequency, particularly in higher-calorie categories 1.
- Management expects a challenging consumer environment in 2026, so a rapid volume recovery is not assured based on the source 1.
What to watch
- Like-for-like sales in company-managed and franchised shopsQ1 2027
- Level of fixed costs and underlying operating profit2027
- Food-to-go market share and market visit trendsnext 10-K
- Progress on allergen management and cyber security2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Greggs presents itself as a fresh-prepared food-on-the-go business, aiming to make great tasting food accessible to everyone. Its model combines company-managed shops, franchising and delivery and click-and-collect channels, supported by a vertically integrated supply chain. The company reports over 33,000 colleagues and an estate of 2,700 shops. Total sales in fiscal 2025 rose 6.8% 1.
The five-pillar strategy focuses on broadening customer appeal, growing the estate, developing digital channels, expanding evening trade and investing in supply chain and technology. The company aims to be customers' favourite for food-on-the-go, and its value positioning, cited in the YouGov BrandIndex ranking, supports this 1.
Financial results show margin pressure: underlying operating profit fell 4% due to higher fixed costs for manufacturing, logistics and technology capacity, and underlying pre-tax profit fell 9.4% 1. Management presents this cost base as deliberate investment for future growth rather than a one-off operational problem.
Segments
Company-managed shops
Like-for-like sales in company-managed shops rose 2.4% in fiscal 2025, showing that the customer base stayed active even in a weak market 1.
Franchise and partnerships
Like-for-like system sales in franchised units rose 4.3%, suggesting that expansion through franchise, grocery and delivery partners is helping customers access the products 1.
Market context
The food-to-go market contracted in fiscal 2025, with market visits down 3.1%, while Greggs' share rose 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% 1. Management says pressure on disposable incomes remains the main factor affecting sales, and demand for convenient food-on-the-go could remain solid if pricing stays competitive.
The company expects consumer sentiment to remain a headwind in 2026, but believes its competitive position and growth opportunities could allow it to outperform the market, if its capacity investments deliver as planned 1.
Trends
- Cost of living pressureheadwind
Consumers are managing budgets more carefully, pushing demand toward products with clear value. Greggs responds by keeping a focus on value and strict cost control 1.
- Dietary and nutritional preferencesmixed
Preferences are emerging for more protein, fibre and smaller portions. The company aims to ensure a share of its range qualifies as a healthier choice, which could open new product categories 1.
- GLP-1 weight management medicationsheadwind
Growing use of GLP-1 drugs reduces demand for calorie-dense foods, which could affect traditional categories if the trend spreads 1.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencetailwind
The app, click-and-collect and AI integration into business processes could raise purchase frequency and operating efficiency. The Board has tracked progress to build analytical capability 1.
Competitive position
Greggs competes in food-to-go with quick-service restaurants, coffee shops and food retailers offering food on the move. The company argues its advantage is competitive pricing and a vertically integrated model that lets it control production and distribution costs 1.
Management states that its value leadership and rising share show an advantage over competitors, but the source does not provide detailed competitor share or financial data, so the comparison remains qualitative 1.
- Sandwich and coffee chains
Direct competitors in the food-to-go segment, referenced in general terms in the source without detailed financial data 1.
- Quick-service restaurant chains
Competition in quick-service and delivery, where Greggs aims to maintain its value advantage 1.
- Supermarkets and food retailers
Partnerships with food retailers are both a growth vehicle and a competitor for the same convenient-food demand 1.
- Delivery platforms
Home delivery services compete for the same consumption occasions, and Greggs is expanding its own partnerships in this channel 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Greggs in Tilbury damaged after car deliberately crashedSurge — GDELT DOC · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- Factory closure plan will future proof Greggs , says boss as 740 jobs cutSurge — GDELT DOC · 30 Sept 2026 · RO
- Greggs to close four UK factories with potential for 740 job lossesThe Guardian World · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- Greggs Burns Short Sellers With Rally Sparked by Summertime MenuBloomberg Markets · 29 Jul 2026 · EN
- Greggs sales jump as iced matcha lattes and chicken rolls become heatwave hitsThe Guardian World · 29 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 (ESEF) · SEC / Greggs plc · 27 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.