olivLaw · European equity research
Halfords Group PLC HFD.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B012TP20 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Halfords is a British motoring and cycling retailer that has shifted towards services and B2B revenue, reporting reported revenue of £1,801.7m in fiscal 2026. The company says it regained momentum in FY26 while running its 'Fit for the Future' plan with more disciplined execution.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Halfords Group PLC (HFD.L) stock was 2.57 GBP (−1.16% on the day), with market capitalisation 555.2 m GBP, P/E 17.6 on diluted EPS of 0.15 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.44%, beta 0.56, 52-week range 1.28–2.80 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.47 – 2.78
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.30 · band width 11.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.60 / 1.97
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / 0.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.8% | −0.6% | −0.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.1% | −4.2% | +9.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +64.0% | +4.3% | +59.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +82.2% | +7.5% | +74.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +79.4% | +9.9% | +69.5 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +19.3% | +49.8% | −30.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −8.8% | +42.8% | −51.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.0, median 15.4, max 21.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.1% | +5.0% |
| Net income | 16.9 m | -33.6 m | 32.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −298.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | -0.15 | 0.15 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −308.1% | unavailable |
| net % | 1.0% | -2.0% | 1.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 162.8 m | 146.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Apr 2026
- Cash
- 19.3 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 200.0 k GBP
- Net debt
- -19.1 m GBP
- Equity
- 513.5 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.2 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 0.89x
- ROE
- 6.5%
- ROA
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 873.9 m | 846.1 m | 848.8 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 822.6 m | 869.1 m | 952.9 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | 51.9 m | -18.9 m | 55.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 38.8 m | -30.0 m | 43.6 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.8 m | 3.8 m | 11.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | 16.9 m | -33.6 m | 32.9 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | -0.15 | 0.15 | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.09 | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 13.3 m | 19.1 m | 19.3 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | 161.0 m | 153.7 m | 156.2 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | 237.5 m | 225.2 m | 230.8 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | 420.4 m | 398.6 m | 407.6 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 89.5 m | 91.7 m | 103.8 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 355.7 m | 355.7 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 77.0 m | 69.8 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 368.4 m | 357.1 m | 372.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.8 m | 200.0 k | 200.0 k | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 19.6 m | 8.8 m | 0 | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 463.2 m | 455.3 m | 459.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 725.7 m | 675.1 m | 654.7 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 553.8 m | 500.3 m | 513.5 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 216.7 m | 218.2 m | 216.4 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 194.7 m | 186.3 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | 21.9 m | 31.9 m | 40.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 162.8 m ≈ | 146.2 m ≈ | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | -57.2 m | -58.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | -131.7 m | -128.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 21.7 m | 17.4 m | 19.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 10.2 m | 3.6 m | 6.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 555.2 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
56% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.4% | 29 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.8% | 26 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 444.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 7 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.6x | 28 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 26.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.5% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 13.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial7/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HALFORDS GROUP PLC (HFD.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-04-03.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.8 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 6.5%.
The estimated value range is 1.26–1.81 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.53 GBP, the price of 2.56 GBP leaves a potential of -40.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -67.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 444.4%
- FCF yield: 26.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 13.1%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 8.4%
- Net margin: 1.8%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- P/E (TTM): 17.6x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| HFD.LHalfords Group PLC | 555.2 m | 17.6 | 6.5% | 1.8% | +5.0% | +83% / +36% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HFD.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.59 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 2.81 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 4.22 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 1.56 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 3.10 Total return 33% · Per year 10% | 5.12 Total return 114% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 1.53 Total return -27% · Per year -6% | 3.42 Total return 54% · Per year 9% | 6.19 Total return 169% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 0.77
- Net margin± 0.54
- Annual revenue growth± 0.44
- Annual dilution± 0.05
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Halfords is a British motoring and cycling retailer that has shifted towards services and B2B revenue, reporting reported revenue of £1,801.7m in fiscal 2026 1. The company says it regained momentum in FY26 while running its 'Fit for the Future' plan with more disciplined execution.
SWOT
Strengths
- A recognised national brand with more than 130 years of history, a network of stores, garages and mobile vans, and the ability to combine products and services 1.
- Market leadership in bike sales in the UK and strong own brands in cycling 1.
- Recurring revenue from B2B and services that is less sensitive to consumer demand 1.
Weaknesses
- The company acknowledges that integration of acquisitions and too many competing priorities were weaknesses in the past 1.
- Customer trust in garages remains a challenge, and awareness of the full service range is still limited 1.
- Garage utilisation and labour cost were significant pressures, and the pace of improvement depends on execution 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Consumer recoveryhigh
If pressure on household budgets persists, demand for products and services could remain weak 1.
- Labour costmedium
Higher wages and national insurance increases have pressed garage margins, and utilisation remains a management priority 1.
- Carbon taxationlow
The EU and UK CBAM could raise costs for some imported products, although the company estimates a limited exposure 1.
- Health and safety in operationshigh
Two colleague deaths in Commercial Fleet Services in FY25 led to an investigation by the Health and Safety Executive, which could have operational effects 1.
- Strategy executionmedium
The Fit for the Future plan depends on operational discipline and integration of acquisitions, and failure here could limit gains 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company says it regained momentum in FY26 with like-for-like growth and rising profit, suggesting Optimise initiatives are beginning to pay off 1.
- Leadership in cycling and the national garage network could support growth in services and e-bikes 1.
- Recurring B2B revenue and a net cash balance sheet could provide stability if consumer demand stays weak 1.
What would break the thesis
- The company acknowledges that inflation and market pressures have weighed on profits in recent years, and a full recovery is not assured 1.
- If customer trust in garages does not improve, service conversion could remain below expectations 1.
- Exposure to labour costs and carbon regimes could limit margins in the short term 1.
What to watch
- Trading update for the first half of FY27October 2026
- Interim results and garage margin trendNovember 2026
- Rollout of wheel alignment equipment and garage tabletsFY27
- Effects of the UK CBAM on imported products2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Halfords combines product and service sales for cars and bikes through stores, Autocentres garages, mobile vans and online channels. According to the annual report for the period ended 3 April 2026, the company describes an omnichannel model in which customers move from online to store and garage 1. The B2B segment, including fleet services, Cycle2Work and Trade Card, adds contracted revenue less sensitive to consumer demand 1.
The company says about 80% of service events take place in its retail car parks, making in-store checks and fitting a distinctive advantage over other retailers 1. Management said a robust balance sheet remains its number one capital allocation priority, and M&A has been deprioritised for the first three years of the plan 1.
In FY26 the company reported ending the year with net cash and keeping capital expenditure within its communicated target range 1. The 'Optimise' strategy aims to simplify processes, rationalise ranges and improve garage utilisation, with the goal of lifting ROCE above the cost of capital 1.
Segments
Market context
The UK motoring maintenance and accessories market is shaped by an ageing car parc, with the average UK car now over ten years old, moving work from dealer networks to aftermarket providers 1. The company says the bike market showed recovery in the second half of FY26, supported by volume and higher average selling prices 1.
The shift to electric vehicles is described as accelerating, but EVs remain a minority of the UK car parc in the near term 1. Halfords says EVs still need tyres, servicing and maintenance, which could support demand for its capabilities 1.
Trends
- Ageing car parctailwind
The older average age of UK cars moves maintenance work towards value-driven providers such as Halfords 1.
- Shift to electric vehiclesmixed
EVs need service and tyres, but their share of the car parc remains small near term, so growth could be gradual 1.
- Household budget pressureheadwind
The company points to pressure on household budgets, the risk of renewed inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, which could affect customer spending 1.
- Omnichannel and servicestailwind
The sector is moving to an omnichannel model where customers expect convenience, advice and fast service, and Halfords is reorienting stores and garages towards services 1.
Competitive position
Halfords operates in a competitive field where general auto retailers, independent workshops and online platforms compete on price and convenience. The source does not explicitly name competitors, so advantages are presented from the company's perspective: its national network, 130-year brand heritage and combination of online and face-to-face advice 1.
The company argues that customer trust in garages is low across the industry, and investment in tablets with photographic evidence aims to change that perception 1. A cited advantage is also the ability to offer fast fitting services in store car parks 1.
- General auto retailers
Competition from auto parts and accessories retailers that may compete on price and convenience, although the source does not name them.
- Independent auto service
Independent workshops competing for maintenance and repair work, a segment where Halfords wants to raise garage utilisation.
- Online bicycle platforms
Online sellers of bikes and e-bikes, including unregulated markets, which the company cites as a source of safety concerns.
- Car dealers
Dealer networks lose some work on older cars to aftermarket providers, as the company describes.
News & filings
In the press
- Halfords Gets a Summer Tune-UpYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202521 Aug 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-04-03 (ESEF) · SEC / Halfords Group PLC · 03 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.