olivLaw · European equity research
Hilton Food Group plc HFG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B1V9NW54 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Hilton Food Group is a UK-based food company processing protein products for major retailers across several countries. Its fiscal 2025 results included a stock write-off linked to the Foppen listeria incident, and its risk framework highlights inflationary and geopolitical pressures, making its operational resilience worth assessing. These points are reported in the company's official documents.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Hilton Food Group plc (HFG.L) stock was 7.44 GBP (+0.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 668.6 m GBP, P/E 8.5 on diluted EPS of 0.87 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.21, 52-week range 4.56–7.44 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 7.02 – 7.41
- above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 5.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.01 / 5.75
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / 0.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.3% | −0.6% | +4.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +21.6% | −4.2% | +25.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +38.8% | +4.3% | +34.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +47.6% | +7.5% | +40.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +14.1% | +9.9% | +4.2 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +15.2% | +49.8% | −34.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −38.1% | +42.8% | −80.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.7, median 19.9, max 20.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −4.2% | +10.3% |
| Net income | 36.4 m | 39.3 m | 78.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +8.0% | +100.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +7.7% | +101.6% |
| net % | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Free cash flow | 111.5 m | 56.5 m | -1.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 150.5 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 277.2 m GBP
- Net debt
- 126.7 m GBP
- Equity
- 372.2 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.4 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.74x
- Current ratio
- 1.10x
- ROE
- 22.9%
- ROA
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- -0.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 430.3 m | 432.7 m | 436.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 86.1 m | 94.9 m | 90.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 48.6 m | 57.4 m | 56.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 10.6 m | 18.2 m | 8.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 36.4 m | 39.3 m | 78.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.87 | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 126.7 m | 111.9 m | 150.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 277.8 m | 253.7 m | 265.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 179.8 m | 197.7 m | 240.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 587.9 m | 563.8 m | 659.0 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 324.1 m | 329.7 m | 330.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 458.8 m | 451.8 m | 496.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 28.6 m | 29.5 m | 82.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 237.8 m | 213.8 m | 194.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 503.6 m | 507.1 m | 601.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 967.7 m | 919.6 m | 982.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 321.5 m | 316.8 m | 372.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 89.7 m | 89.9 m | 89.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 166.9 m | 124.5 m | 68.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 55.4 m | 68.0 m | 69.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 111.5 m ≈ | 56.5 m ≈ | -1.5 m ≈ | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -54.8 m | -62.3 m | -14.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -71.3 m | -72.6 m | -18.0 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 668.6 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 16.1% | 63 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.9% | 26 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -1.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 25 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.5x | 83 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC (HFG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.2 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 10.3%; net margin 1.9%; ROE 23.5%.
The estimated value range is 9.86–15.20 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.59 GBP, the price of 7.44 GBP leaves a potential of 69.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 40.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 8.5x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.9%
- FCF conversion: -1.9%
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- FCF yield: -0.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| HFG.LHilton Food Group PLC | 668.6 m | 8.5 | 23.5% | 1.9% | +10.3% | +46% / +1% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HFG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 4.68 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 8.25 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 12.40 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 5.09 Total return -32% · Per year -12% | 10.04 Total return 35% · Per year 10% | 16.48 Total return 122% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 5.53 Total return -26% · Per year -6% | 12.21 Total return 64% · Per year 10% | 21.91 Total return 194% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 2.51
- Net margin± 1.76
- Annual revenue growth± 1.37
- Annual dilution± 0.15
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Hilton Food Group is a UK-based food company processing protein products for major retailers across several countries. Its fiscal 2025 results included a stock write-off linked to the Foppen listeria incident, and its risk framework highlights inflationary and geopolitical pressures, making its operational resilience worth assessing. These points are reported in the company's official documents 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong customer relationships and a strategy of diversification across several proteins and product ranges, described in the annual report 1.
- Automation and factory efficiency programmes that support cost control 1.
- A governance and internal control framework that the audit committee considers effective 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertaintyhigh
The Middle East conflict and higher inflation could increase cost pressures and reduce demand in some regions 1.
- Bargaining power of large customersmedium
Large customers can influence contract terms at renewal, which could affect revenue and margins 1.
- Cyber securitymedium
Cyber threats to digital systems could disrupt operations and expose sensitive information 1.
- Supply chain continuitymedium
Supplier failures, contamination or logistics breakdowns could affect product availability 1.
- Governance and board structurelow
The temporary executive Chair, which departs from the governance code, could affect investor perception until a new Chair is appointed 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If automation and efficiency programmes deliver their effects, margins could gradually recover after the period of inflationary pressure 1.
- Strong customer relationships and diversification across proteins could provide demand stability 1.
- Gains from recent disposals could help fund the transformation programmes 1.
What would break the thesis
- Energy and raw material pressures could stay elevated, limiting the ability to absorb costs 1.
- The Foppen incident could have effects beyond the stock loss if reputation or customer relationships are affected 1.
- Dependence on large customers with strong bargaining power could pressure contract terms in future 1.
What to watch
- Trends in energy and raw material costs amid the Middle East conflict2026
- Appointment of a new board Chair and return to compliance with the governance code2026
- Results of testing internal controls for compliance with Provision 292026 year-end
- Progress of cost-out and transformation programmes, including new factoriesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Hilton Food Group plc is a UK-headquartered food group supplying processed protein products to retailers and food industry customers. The governance structure described in the annual report 1 shows an executive Chair in place, which the company treats as an abnormal and temporary arrangement. Operations depend on large customer relationships, factory efficiency and the supply chain.
In fiscal 2025 the company recorded gains from the Fairfax Meadow disposal and the Foods Connected stake, while reorganisation and strategic project costs were classed as adjusting items 1. These items affect comparability between years, so readers should analyse underlying results separately.
The company is investing in automation, robotics and factory efficiency to offset cost pressures, as described in the risk section of the report 1. A cost-out programme and a transformation agenda, including new factories and operating-model redesign, are tracked through formal governance 1.
Segments
Processed protein products
The core activity involves processing and packing meat and other protein products for retail customers, a segment where diversification across proteins and product ranges is presented as a risk mitigant 1.
Market context
The company operates in processed food, where energy and raw material pressures, tariff barriers and uneven regional demand create a volatile environment, according to the annual report 1. The bargaining power of large customers at contract renewal is explicitly cited as a risk factor 1.
The Middle East conflict, including the current effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is identified as a new source of pressure on energy and raw material costs 1. The company notes that higher inflation could reduce the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts 1.
Trends
- Automation and factory efficiencytailwind
The company uses automation and robotics to reduce inflationary pressures and improve efficiency, which could support margins if the programmes are executed 1.
- Inflationary and geopolitical pressuresheadwind
Rising energy and raw material costs linked to the Middle East conflict may affect margins and the ability to pass costs on to customers 1.
- Trade policy and tariffsheadwind
Uncertainty over tariff barriers could increase input cost volatility and affect international trade flows 1.
- Digitalisation and cyber securitymixed
Investment in IT systems and the new IT risk function could strengthen operational resilience, although rising cyber threats to manufacturers remain a significant concern 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name competitors. It does, however, highlight competitive pressure from large retail customers who can use their buying power when renegotiating contracts 1.
According to the report, differentiation rests on strong customer relationships, innovation and factory efficiency 1. The source material does not provide details on market share or specific competitors.
- Unnamed competitors in source
The annual report does not name direct competitors; competitive pressure is described only in general terms.
- Large retail customers as bargaining power
Major customers can influence contract terms, a competitive force the company describes.
- Protein food producers in the same regions
The source material does not identify them; they are mentioned only in general terms.
- Automation and technology suppliers
Automation solutions can influence the relative efficiency of producers, as the report notes.
News & filings
In the press
- Hilton Food Group H1 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202423 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 (ESEF) · SEC / Hilton Food Group plc · 28 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.