olivLaw · European equity research
HgCapital Trust plc HGT.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
HgCapital Trust plc is a London-listed investment trust holding unquoted businesses, mainly software and technology services companies, managed by Hg. It matters now because in 2025 its NAV per share rose less than the FTSE All-Share Index, while public markets are repricing software companies.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, HgCapital Trust plc (HGT.L) stock was 3.94 GBP (−0.25% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.8 bn GBP, P/E 18.3 on diluted EPS of 0.21 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.40%, beta 0.49, 52-week range 3.23–5.09 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.63 – 4.10
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.66 · band width 12.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.95 / 3.97
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.00
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.5% | −0.6% | +4.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.8% | −4.2% | +4.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.3% | +4.3% | +2.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −22.3% | +7.5% | −29.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −16.8% | +9.9% | −26.7 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +2.1% | +49.8% | −47.8 pp | +24.8% |
| 5 years | −5.1% | +42.8% | −47.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 0.1, median 10.4, max 23.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 230.5 m | 236.1 m | 98.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +2.4% | −58.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 50.36 | 0.52 | 0.21 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −99.0% | −58.3% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 14.3 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 2.6 bn GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 3.9%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 238.7 m | 245.3 m | 106.1 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 8.2 m | 9.2 m | 7.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 230.5 m | 236.1 m | 98.4 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 230.5 m | 236.1 m | 98.4 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 50.36 | 0.52 | 0.21 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 6.50 | 0.07 | 0.06 | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
Cash flow · GBP
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.8 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
23% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 13.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.3x | 32 (vs peers) | 45% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.4% | 20 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial20/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial32/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HGCAPITAL TRUST PLC (HGT.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 3.9%.
The estimated value range is 1.54–2.64 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.95 GBP, the price of 3.94 GBP leaves a potential of -50.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -102.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 13.8x
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HGT.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
HgCapital Trust plc is a London-listed investment trust holding unquoted businesses, mainly software and technology services companies, managed by Hg. It matters now because in 2025 its NAV per share rose less than the FTSE All-Share Index, while public markets are repricing software companies 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A long history of investing in unquoted companies, with an operating expert network and a value creation model refined over many years.
- A listed investment trust structure with independent governance and more liquidity than direct private investment.
- A portfolio diversified by geography and sector, with companies in Europe and North America and majority positions in each fund.
Weaknesses
- NAV depends on valuations set by the manager, and the multiples used can differ from public market levels.
- The 2025 return trailed the reference index, showing the trust's sensitivity to public market repricing.
- Public listing exits are less attractive at present, which could slow the realisation of value and the return of cash.
Opportunities
- Repricing of listed software companies could open acquisition opportunities at attractive valuations, especially for businesses with solid growth.
- Artificial intelligence investments across the portfolio could raise company value if AI is embedded in customer workflows.
- If public markets recover, listing could become an exit option again, and realisations could generate additional liquidity.
Threats
- Persistently lower public multiples could reduce portfolio valuations and weigh on NAV.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation pressures could slow growth at portfolio companies.
- Traditional software business models could be disrupted by new AI technologies, which could affect portfolio companies.
Risks
- Valuation riskhigh
Valuations of unquoted companies are prepared by the manager and reviewed by the Board, and gaps with public markets could affect NAV.
- Investment performance riskmedium
Poor investment selection and monitoring could lead to underperformance against the plans of portfolio companies.
- Technology concentration riskmedium
A technology-focused strategy could lead to higher volatility and underperformance if sentiment toward the sector turns negative.
- Liquidity and commitment riskmedium
The trust must fund investment commitments; a slow pace of realisations could limit its ability to invest.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical risklow
Geopolitical shocks, fiscal tightening and cost pressures could weigh on the wider economy and portfolio companies.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the repricing of listed software companies reverses, NAV could rise and exits could become more profitable.
- Long-term growth in NAV, supported by earnings growth at portfolio companies, could continue over time.
- Acquisition opportunities at attractive valuations could generate strong returns for investors with a long horizon.
What would break the thesis
- If public multiples stay low, portfolio valuations could keep falling and NAV could decline.
- The 2025 return trailed the reference index, and the trust could keep lagging broader markets if that trend persists.
- Harder exits could slow the return of cash and keep capital tied up for longer.
What to watch
- Development of NAV per share and half-year results2026
- Realisations and exits to strategic or financial buyers2026
- Dividend level against the indicative 5 pence floornext 10-K
- Trends in public software multiples and their effect on portfolio valuations2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
HgT is an investment trust that gives investors exposure to a portfolio of unquoted, fast-growing businesses, usually controlled by its manager, Hg Pooled Management Limited. Investments are made through special-purpose partnerships in which HgT is the largest limited partner, and the trust can co-invest directly alongside Hg funds without management fees on those investments 1. The trust aims for long-term returns above the FTSE All-Share Index, without being managed for short-term performance against an index 1.
The trust's structure is designed to keep its investment trust tax status, which allows it to realise investments without corporation tax on gains. The Board says it aims for growth in net asset value and share price rather than a specific dividend level, with an indicative floor 1. The manager is asked to keep the trust as fully invested as practicable while keeping cash for new deals 1.
Hg, the manager, describes its strategy as focused on controlling buyouts of technology and services companies in Europe and North America, grouped into end-market clusters growing faster than the wider economy. More broadly, Hg believes technology and services will transform professional productivity over decades 1.
Segments
Unquoted software and technology services investments
This is the core of HgT: majority stakes in B2B software and technology services companies, held through special-purpose partnerships and managed by Hg. Hg considers these businesses mission-critical to their customers, with recurring revenue models that have attracted investors 1.
Direct co-investments
A small part of the portfolio, about 10% of NAV, is invested directly alongside Hg funds, with no management fee and no performance fee on realisation 1. This gives shareholders more direct exposure to selected companies.
Liquidity and commitments
The trust keeps liquid resources to take part in Hg investments across the investment-realisation cycle, and at the end of 2025 available liquid resources were 14% of NAV 1. Commitments are usually drawn over three to four years.
Market context
UK equity and software markets were volatile in 2025, and listed software valuations fell toward the broader market. The Board sees this as creating take-private opportunities, but it makes public listing a less attractive exit than sales to strategic or financial buyers 1. HgT's underperformance against the FTSE All-Share in 2025 shows the trust was affected by these moves 1.
For investors, the trust offers exposure to private software and technology services markets with more liquidity than direct private investment, but its NAV is set by the manager and reviewed by the Board. The share price can differ from NAV, and in a year like 2025 the two measures moved differently 1.
Trends
- Repricing of listed software companiesheadwind
The premium public markets had long given software has faded, which could reduce the valuation multiples Hg uses for unquoted assets if current public multiples persist 1.
- Take-private opportunitiestailwind
Public market volatility can create chances to buy quality companies at attractive valuations, as with OneStream, a US financial software provider 1.
- Agentic artificial intelligencemixed
Hg believes applications with domain-specific data and customer trust can gain value by embedding AI, but traditional software business models face pressure 1.
- Exits to strategic and financial buyersmixed
The manager expects sales to strategic buyers and private equity sponsors to remain the main exit routes, as public markets offer fewer attractive options at present 1.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind
The Board does not expect a material direct impact from US tariffs, but geopolitical shocks, fiscal tightening and cost pressures could weigh on inflation and growth 1.
Competitive position
HgT competes for deals and capital with other private equity funds and technology investors, mainly in Europe and North America. Hg believes its sector specialisation and transatlantic presence give it an edge in sourcing and managing investments 1.
In public markets the trust competes with other listed investment trusts and vehicles offering private equity exposure. This competition is reflected in the share price, which can differ from NAV, and specific competitors are not named in the primary source 1.
- Other European and North American private equity funds
Compete for the same software and technology services deals; the source does not name them individually.
- Listed private equity investment trusts
Offer similar exposure through listed shares, with different structures and fees; the source does not identify them.
- Strategic software acquirers
Buyers that compete with funds for software companies and represent an exit route for HgT.
- Large-scale private equity sponsors
Compete for large software companies when capital is available.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202411 Mar 2025
- Annual report 202411 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / HgCapital Trust plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.