olivLaw · European equity research
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC IHG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BHJYC057 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
IHG is a global hotel group operating mainly through a franchise-led asset-light model, with revenues tied to hotels owned by third parties. For 2025 the annual report points to total gross revenue of about 13 billion USD, in a context of geopolitical, technological and climate uncertainties.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG.L) stock was 176.95 USD (+2.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 27.3 bn USD, P/E 36.4 on diluted EPS of 4.87 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.98%, beta 0.72, 52-week range 127.98–176.95 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 156.69 – 176.49
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 11.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 160.90 / 152.53
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.40 / 2.61
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.9% | −0.6% | +10.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +11.5% | −4.2% | +15.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.5% | +4.3% | +15.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +25.7% | +7.5% | +18.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +37.6% | +9.9% | +27.7 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +127.5% | +49.8% | +77.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +146.4% | +42.8% | +103.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 21.6, median 28.9, max 34.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +18.8% | +6.5% | +5.4% |
| Net income | 375.0 m | 750.0 m | 628.0 m | 758.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +100.0% | −16.3% | +20.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 4.41 | 3.85 | 4.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −12.7% | +26.3% |
| net % | 9.6% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| Free cash flow | 592.0 m | 865.0 m | 695.0 m | 870.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 4.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.1 bn USD
- Equity
- -2.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.98x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 15.0%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 648.0 m | 742.0 m | 745.0 m | 764.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.2 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 4.4 bn ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Operating income | 628.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 68.0 m | 67.0 m | 65.0 m | 67.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 696.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 118.0 m | 126.0 m | 178.0 m | 202.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 540.0 m | 1.0 bn | 897.0 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 164.0 m | 260.0 m | 269.0 m | 315.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 375.0 m | 750.0 m | 628.0 m | 758.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 4.41 | 3.85 | 4.87 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.45 | 1.61 | 1.73 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 740.0 m | 785.0 m | 833.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 5.0 m | 4.0 m | 5.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 153.0 m | 146.0 m | 148.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 4.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 711.0 m | 650.0 m | 676.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 599.0 m | 398.0 m | 478.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -1.6 bn | -1.9 bn | -2.3 bn | -2.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 169.0 m | 161.2 m | 154.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 646.0 m | 893.0 m | 724.0 m | 898.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 54.0 m | 28.0 m | 29.0 m | 28.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 592.0 m ≈ | 865.0 m ≈ | 695.0 m ≈ | 870.0 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -78.0 m | -137.0 m | -99.0 m | -190.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -961.0 m | -417.0 m | -894.0 m | -614.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 233.0 m | 245.0 m | 259.0 m | 270.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 482.0 m | 790.0 m | 804.0 m | 897.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 46 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 27.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Growth84
- Returns77
- Balance sheet46
- Valuation11
- Quality79
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.73 – 149.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)86.11 – 149.75 (Mid 110.18)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 1.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 30.1%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E54.92 – 84.70 (Mid 70.18)17 companies used · median multiple 14.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 17.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)22.73 – 30.57 (Mid 26.08)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 46/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.6% | 57 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 114.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.1% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.9x | 68 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.4x | 0 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 24.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.2% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 31.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet46/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial84/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC (IHG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.4%; net margin 14.6%; net debt/EBITDA 2.4x.
The estimated value range is 54.92–84.70 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 70.18 USD, the price of 176.95 USD leaves a potential of -60.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -152.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 46/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 114.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 31.0%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- P/E (TTM): 36.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 24.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| IHG.LIntercontinental Hotels Group PLC | 27.3 bn | 36.4 | — | 14.6% | +5.4% | +31% / +115% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IHG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 111.44 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 196.52 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 295.32 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 120.58 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 238.05 Total return 38% · Per year 11% | 390.99 Total return 125% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 130.48 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 288.37 Total return 70% · Per year 11% | 517.64 Total return 201% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 59.51
- Net margin± 41.66
- Annual revenue growth± 32.47
- Annual dilution± 3.50
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
IHG is a global hotel group operating mainly through a franchise-led asset-light model, with revenues tied to hotels owned by third parties. For 2025 the annual report points to total gross revenue of about 13 billion USD 1, in a context of geopolitical, technological and climate uncertainties.
SWOT
Strengths
- The asset-light model and broad global footprint support a diversified revenue base with limited exposure to property investment 1.
- The brand portfolio and central procurement programmes give owners scale advantages 1.
- Documented culture and governance, with a Code of Conduct and dedicated committees, support risk control 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on technology partners and external suppliers creates performance and compliance risks 1.
- A large share of emissions comes from franchised hotels, over which the group has limited direct control 1.
- Responsibility for safety and security standards is shared between the group and owners, which complicates uniform enforcement 1.
Opportunities
- Development of generative AI and digital platforms could improve guest experience and operational efficiency 1.
- Energy efficiency programmes could lower owner costs and strengthen relationships with owners 1.
- Expansion into new markets through a franchise model could accelerate growth without large capital outlays 1.
Risks
- Regulatory and compliance riskhigh
Breaches of rules on franchising, anti-bribery or data protection could lead to sanctions and reputational harm 1.
- Supply chain riskmedium
Trade policy shifts and supplier instability could affect hotel openings and margins 1.
- Operational and cyber riskhigh
Security incidents, fraud or system failures could cause financial losses and reduced stakeholder confidence 1.
- Technology riskmedium
Delays in platform modernisation or reliance on third parties could limit the benefits of digital investment 1.
- Climate risklow
Extreme weather and water stress could affect revenue at individual hotels, although the aggregated impact is assessed as not material 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the asset-light model and franchise expansion continue, the group could grow revenue without a proportional increase in invested capital 1.
- Investment in AI and energy efficiency could improve margins and the appeal of the brands to owners 1.
- Global scale and central procurement programmes could give owners lower costs and better performance 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend of total emissions against the science-based target2026
- Progress of the AI programme and generative AI governance2026
- Developments in franchise regulation and class action volumesnext 10-K
- Status of central procurement programmes and supplier risk2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the 2025 annual report, IHG organises its development and operations regionally across the Americas, EMEAA and Greater China, supported by global functions such as Commercial and Marketing, Product and Technology and Finance 1. Its model is described as asset-light, focused on franchising and management, operating through over 340 subsidiaries 1.
Its brands are promoted under the purpose True Hospitality for Good, which guides culture and strategy 1. The 'Care for our people, communities and planet' pillar and the Journey to Tomorrow plan link commercial strategy to responsibility goals, including emissions reduction 1.
Purchasing is decentralised, with most hotels being independently owned and managing their own supply chains, while IHG Global Procurement offers central programmes in the US, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, Greater China and EMEAA 1.
Segments
Franchised hotels
Franchised hotels are a major part of the global footprint, and their Scope 3 emissions are reported separately, indicating the group's dependence on owner partners 1.
Managed and owned or leased hotels
Managed hotels and owned or leased hotels are under IHG's direct operational control, which explains the separate reporting of Scope 1 and 2 emissions for this category 1.
Corporate and technology
Corporate functions include technology, professional services and marketing, procured through Global Procurement, and partnerships with technology suppliers are described as central to the digital strategy 1.
Market context
The global hotel market is described in the report as geographically fragmented, with wide variations in regulation and demand between regions, and IHG focuses on brands and on owners investing in hotels 1.
Trends
- Rising regulation and litigationheadwind
Rules on franchising, consumer protection and generative AI are expanding, and class actions could raise costs if claim volumes grow 1.
- Artificial intelligence and digitalisationmixed
AI and cloud platforms could accelerate innovation in guest experience and operational efficiency, but they create third-party dependencies and governance risks 1.
- Physical climate risksheadwind
Extreme heat and water stress in several regions could affect revenue and owner returns, although the group considers the aggregated impact not material 1.
- Energy efficiency and decarbonisationtailwind
Programmes such as Low Carbon Pioneers and energy brand standards could reduce owner costs and support the appeal of hotel investment 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name competitors in the supplied sources, so the competitive analysis rests on the description of the asset-light model and the global footprint 1. The advantage cited is global scale and the brand portfolio 1.
Competitive pressure may come from hotel groups competing for the same owners and franchise contracts, but the sources do not detail these rivals.
- Global hotel groups
The supplied sources do not name direct competitors of the group.
- Premium hotel chains
Competition for owners and franchise contracts, with no named companies in the sources.
- Online booking platforms
Digital channels influence visibility and distribution cost, a topic tied to commercial channel performance.
- Regional independent operators
Independent hotels in many markets compete on local segments where IHG has limited direct presence.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / InterContinental Hotels Group PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.