olivLaw · European equity research
Inchcape PLC INCH.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B61TVQ02 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Inchcape is a global automotive distributor that manages car brands for vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) across the Americas, Europe, Africa and APAC. In fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of about 9.1 billion GBP, and its Accelerate+ strategy focuses on growth and margin protection in a sector moving toward electric vehicles.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Inchcape PLC (INCH.L) stock was 6.43 GBP (−0.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.4 bn GBP, P/E 9.0 on diluted EPS of 0.72 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.66, 52-week range 6.26–8.90 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.12 – 7.03
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 13.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.36 / 7.96
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.27 / -0.30
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.3% | −0.6% | −5.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −22.3% | −4.2% | −18.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −22.3% | +4.3% | −26.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.4% | +7.5% | −24.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.3% | +9.9% | −24.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −2.9% | +49.8% | −52.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −25.9% | +42.8% | −68.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.6, median 10.7, max 11.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −1.3% | −1.8% |
| Net income | 270.0 m | 421.0 m | 272.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +55.9% | −35.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.65 | 1.02 | 0.72 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +57.3% | −29.7% |
| net % | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Free cash flow | 505.0 m | 510.0 m | 338.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 657.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 921.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- 264.0 m GBP
- Equity
- 1.3 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 5.8 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.69x
- Current ratio
- 1.07x
- ROE
- 19.3%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- FCF margin
- 3.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 570.0 m | 562.0 m | 526.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 244.0 m | 221.0 m | 195.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 378.0 m | 414.0 m | 406.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 130.0 m | 129.0 m | 133.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 270.0 m | 421.0 m | 272.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.65 | 1.02 | 0.72 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 689.0 m | 549.0 m | 657.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 835.0 m | 829.0 m | 772.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 893.0 m | 589.0 m | 581.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 652.0 m | 195.0 m | 412.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 638.0 m | 544.0 m | 509.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 411.6 m | 408.3 m | 375.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 593.0 m | 586.0 m | 385.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 88.0 m | 76.0 m | 47.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 505.0 m ≈ | 510.0 m ≈ | 338.0 m ≈ | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -195.0 m | 328.0 m | -47.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -934.0 m | -890.0 m | -470.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.4 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 21.6% | 75 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.0% | 31 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 124.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 22 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.0x | 83 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
INCHCAPE PLC (INCH.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.1 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -1.8%; net margin 3.0%; ROE 20.6%.
The estimated value range is 10.19–15.28 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.47 GBP, the price of 6.42 GBP leaves a potential of 94.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 48.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 21.6%
- FCF conversion: 124.3%
- P/E (TTM): 9.0x
- FCF yield: 14.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| INCH.LInchcape PLC | 2.4 bn | 9.0 | 20.6% | 3.0% | −1.8% | −17% / +2% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for INCH.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.60 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 6.39 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 9.66 Total return 50% · Per year 50% |
| 3 years | 3.07 Total return -52% · Per year -22% | 6.17 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 10.29 Total return 60% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 2.62 Total return -59% · Per year -16% | 5.95 Total return -7% · Per year -2% | 10.97 Total return 71% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 1.54
- Net margin± 1.08
- Annual revenue growth± 0.94
- Annual dilution± 0.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Inchcape is a global automotive distributor that manages car brands for vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) across the Americas, Europe, Africa and APAC. In fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of about 9.1 billion GBP 1, and its Accelerate+ strategy focuses on growth and margin protection in a sector moving toward electric vehicles 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Global presence across several regions and a broad base of distribution contracts with established vehicle manufacturers 1.
- Capital-light business model with high cash generation that supports dividends and share buybacks 1.
- Demonstrated ability to reduce costs and hold operating margins during periods of volatility 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Margin pressurehigh
New routes to market and rising manufacturer competition could reduce margins; the company rates this principal risk as major and likely 1.
- Loss of a material distribution contracthigh
Losing an important contract with a vehicle manufacturer would have a significant impact on revenue and reputation 1.
- Cybersecurityhigh
The centralised structure and growing digitalisation increase the impact of a cyber attack or major systems outage 1.
- Supply chain disruptionmedium
Geopolitical tensions, tariffs and natural hazards could interrupt the normal supply of vehicles and parts 1.
- Acquisition executionmedium
Returns on acquisitions could fall short of targets due to market conditions, integration and staff retention 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If volume growth in the Americas and new distribution contracts hold up, the company could meet its medium-term growth goals with solid results for shareholders 1.
- High cash generation and a capital-light model could allow dividends and buybacks to be funded without a large rise in debt 1.
- Expansion into new vehicle categories and aftersales services could diversify revenue and support margins over the long term 1.
What would break the thesis
- If competitive pressure and tariffs persist, operating margins could fall below current levels, weighing on profitability 1.
- Dependence on a few major contracts could leave results vulnerable if a manufacturer changes its distributor 1.
- If difficulties in APAC continue or currency fluctuations intensify, reported revenue could remain below expectations 1.
What to watch
- Development of the adjusted operating margin against the target of around 6%2026
- Contribution of new distribution contracts to organic volume growth2026
- Recovery of performance in the APAC region2026
- Progress on free cash flow against the target of 2.5 billion GBP through 20302030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Inchcape operates as a distributor and distributor-retailer for vehicle manufacturers, with a business model the company describes as capital-light and highly cash generative 1. The company also provides aftersales, finance and insurance services that complement vehicle sales 1. The Accelerate+ strategy aims to expand into new vehicle categories and optimise the distribution network 1.
In fiscal 2025, revenue was broadly stable in constant currency, with a meaningful contribution from distribution contract wins, while challenges in APAC partly offset growth 1. The adjusted operating margin stayed close to the prior year level, supported by cost discipline 1. The company expects growth in fiscal 2026, with an adjusted margin of around 6%, in line with its medium-term guidance 1.
The company's environmental reporting shows progress in reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a rising share of electric vehicles sold, indicating a shift toward the energy transition in its portfolio 1. The company manages principal risks grouped into 12 categories approved by the Board 1.
Segments
Americas
The Americas accounts for the largest share of adjusted operating profit and was the region with the strongest volume growth in fiscal 2025, with market demand recovering in key countries 1. The segment contributes a substantial part of group results and is seasonal, with a heavier weighting toward the second half of the year 1.
Europe and Africa
Europe and Africa is referenced in the fiscal 2026 outlook as one of the regions where momentum is expected to continue, alongside the Americas 1. Detailed data for this region is presented in the annual report 1.
APAC
APAC was identified as the region with the most visible challenges in fiscal 2025, and the company intends to address these difficulties in fiscal 2026 1.
Market context
The vehicle distribution market is shaped by trade tariffs, macroeconomic uncertainty and growing competition from Chinese vehicle manufacturers, factors that could weigh on margins 1. The transition to electric vehicles changes product mix and requires alignment between local demand and manufacturers' offerings 1.
Rising demand in the Americas and stabilising market share across several regions point to supportive conditions in 2025, though regional variation remains significant 1. The company notes that consumer confidence weakened in some markets, which could influence future volumes 1.
Trends
- Transition to electric vehiclesmixed
A rising share of electric vehicles in group sales can open opportunities but also risks from misalignment between manufacturer supply and local demand 1.
- Trade tariffs and geopolitical tensionsheadwind
Tariff tensions have increased uncertainty and led to a task force being set up to assess the impact, which could pressure margins if tariffs rise 1.
- Competition from Chinese manufacturersheadwind
Rising competition, particularly from Chinese vehicle manufacturers, could reduce distributor margins in the markets where the company operates 1.
- Digitalisation and operational efficiencytailwind
Investments in digitalisation, data and distribution network efficiency can support cost reduction and margin protection if programmes are delivered on time 1.
Competitive position
Competition includes vehicle manufacturers that distribute their own vehicles directly, as well as other distributors and independent networks, and competition from Chinese manufacturers has grown in several markets 1. The company aims to remain the lowest-cost route to market 1.
The competitive advantage the company reports rests on its global footprint, its distribution contracts with manufacturers and its ability to add new vehicle categories 1. Losing a material distribution contract would have a significant impact on revenue, according to the company 1.
- Vehicle manufacturers distributing directly
Manufacturers may take over part of distribution themselves, which is a form of competition for independent distributors 1.
- Other independent automotive distributors
Regional and global distributors compete for the same manufacturer contracts and end customers 1.
- Chinese vehicle manufacturers
Growing competition from these manufacturers was identified in the report as a pressure on margins in markets where the company operates 1.
- Independent car retail and service networks
These networks compete in aftersales and in finance and insurance services, segments the company aims to expand 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Inchcape PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.