olivLaw · European equity research
Ithaca Energy PLC ITH.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BPJHV584 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Ithaca Energy is the largest independent oil and gas producer in the UK North Sea, with pro forma average production of 131 kboe/d in 2025. The company grows through consolidation in a maturing basin, while the fiscal and regulatory framework remains uncertain until 2030.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH.L) stock was 2.55 GBP (−1.32% on the day), with beta -0.21, 52-week range 1.54–3.13 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.63 – 3.21
- below the lower band · %B -0.14 · band width 19.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.85 / 2.49
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.02 / 0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.1% | −0.6% | −6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.6% | −4.2% | +13.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.7% | +4.3% | −3.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +53.7% | +7.5% | +46.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +12.5% | +9.9% | +2.6 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +53.3% | +49.8% | +3.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +42.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −14.6% | +46.3% |
| Net income | 292.6 m | 153.1 m | -84.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −47.7% | −154.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.29 | 0.13 | -0.05 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −54.7% | −139.2% |
| net % | 12.6% | 7.7% | -2.9% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 170.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.55x
- Current ratio
- 0.79x
- ROE
- -3.0%
- ROA
- -1.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn | 842.2 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 486.1 m | 523.7 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 189.7 m | 200.6 m | 264.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 302.0 m | 334.3 m | 840.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.5 m | 181.2 m | 924.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 292.6 m | 153.1 m | -84.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.29 | 0.13 | -0.05 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.30 | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 153.2 m | 165.1 m | 170.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 334.3 m | 417.6 m | 355.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 150.5 m | 283.8 m | 253.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 845.6 m | 976.2 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 783.8 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.3 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 478.6 m | 566.5 m | 610.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 29.9 m | 13.0 m | 14.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 718.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.3 bn | 853.3 m | 1.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -492.4 m | -390.9 m | -1.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -900.7 m | -449.5 m | -292.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 266.0 m | 432.7 m | 497.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.97 – 5.33 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)3.97 – 5.33 (Mid 4.55)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 23.8% | 79 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Net margin · Quality | -2.9% | 26 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.1x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ITHACA ENERGY PLC (ITH.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 46.3%; net margin -2.9%; ROE -3.0%.
The estimated value range is 3.97–5.33 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 23.8%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -2.9%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ITH.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ithaca Energy is the largest independent oil and gas producer in the UK North Sea, with pro forma average production of 131 kboe/d in 2025. The company grows through consolidation in a maturing basin, while the fiscal and regulatory framework remains uncertain until 2030.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified UKCS asset portfolio with greater scale after recent acquisitions and a leading consolidator position in the basin.
- A hedging policy that could protect revenues and investment during periods of price volatility.
- Solid experience in executing acquisitions and integrating acquired assets.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on a single basin and on a fiscal framework that remains uncertain until the mechanism takes effect after 2030.
- Production from some key assets came in below forecast in 2025 because of extended maintenance shutdowns.
- Net current liabilities remain, and the company relies on operating cash flow and available liquidity to address them.
Opportunities
- Continued consolidation in the UKCS and expansion of the acquisition strategy globally.
- Demand for lower-carbon-intensity production could grow if the market rewards this characteristic.
- Development of projects such as Cygnus and the West of Shetland area could add production.
Threats
- Lower oil and gas prices could reduce revenues and cash flows.
- Regulatory and fiscal pressure, including rising carbon costs, could weigh on profitability.
- Lower long-term demand from the energy transition could lead to stranded assets.
Risks
- Extreme weather eventsmedium
Storms and high waves could disrupt drilling operations and increase repair and insurance costs.
- Carbon costhigh
Higher carbon taxes could raise direct and indirect costs, particularly for higher-emitting assets.
- Demand and price volatilityhigh
Lower demand for oil and gas combined with excess supply could reduce prices and lead to stranded assets.
- Reputational risk and access to capitalmedium
Heightened scrutiny of the oil sector could limit access to financing and raise the cost of capital.
- Integration of acquisitionslow
Integrating different teams, systems and assets after the Eni UK combination could slow the realisation of synergies.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company has grown production through acquisitions and is strengthening its position in a basin where rivals are doing the same, which could support medium-term growth.
- The hedging policy could protect cash flows during periods of price volatility, and operating cash flow was solid in 2025.
- If the fiscal framework becomes more predictable after 2030, long-term investment could become more attractive.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on a single basin and uncertain taxation could limit flexibility and the appeal of long-term investment.
- Lower prices or production below forecast, as seen at Captain, could reduce revenues and capacity for shareholder distributions.
- Energy transition and carbon costs could turn out larger than expected, which could weigh on asset profitability.
What to watch
- Completion of consolidation deals and integration of Seagull and Cygnus2026
- Final investment decisions for Cygnus and West of Shetland projectsH1 2026
- Brent and gas price levels amid Middle East tensions2026
- Legislation implementing the permanent OGPM mechanism and the evolution of the EPL2030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ithaca Energy PLC operates on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), where it holds a portfolio of 36 producing field interests, operated and non-operated, across the Northern, Central and Southern North Sea, Moray Firth and West of Shetland. In 2025 the company completed the acquisition of JAPEX UK and increased its stakes in Cygnus and Seagull, adding 17 kboe/d to pro forma average production. The business model covers the full lifecycle of its fields, from exploration and development through production to decommissioning. A key element is its hedging policy: the company reports a hedged position of 63.8 mmboe as at 17 March 2026 through the end of 2027, which supports its investment programme and shareholder distributions. The company also notes that a large share of UK oil production serves the UK market, positioning it within the country's energy security.
Segments
Operated fields
Operated assets such as Captain, Elgin Franklin and J-Area were the main source of operated production in 2025. Captain averaged 17.1 kboe/d net, below forecast, because the shutdown was extended for additional investment, while Elgin Franklin achieved production efficiency of about 94%. The company states it operates responsibly with a focus on safety and emissions reduction.
Non-operated fields and acquisitions
Non-operated interests and stakes increased through acquisitions, such as Cygnus, where the working interest rose to 85% from 1 October 2025, and Seagull, where the equity increased from 35% to 50%. The company describes these deals as synergistic and value-accretive and says it will keep seeking consolidation in the UKCS.
Market context
Brent crude averaged 69 USD/bbl in 2025, the lowest since 2020, under pressure from perceived oversupply and higher OPEC+ output. In the first quarter of 2026, tensions in the Middle East pushed prices to highs of around 117 USD/bbl. The fiscal framework remains important: the Energy Profits Levy stays in place until 31 March 2030, followed by a permanent revenue-based mechanism, and industry reaction to this scheme has been mixed.
Trends
- North Sea consolidationmixed
Large companies are reorganising their North Sea assets through mergers and joint ventures to gain scale and resilience. Ithaca Energy could benefit if it keeps acquiring interests in familiar assets, but consolidation among rivals could weaken its negotiating position.
- Energy security and transitionmixed
The UK government supports both domestic oil and gas production and investment in low-carbon technologies. This framework favours producers with a lower carbon footprint but adds long-term pressure on the sector.
- Data centre energy demandtailwind
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is raising energy demand, and the company argues a balanced mix of sources will be needed. This trend could support demand for domestically produced gas and oil.
- Price volatility and fiscal frameworkheadwind
Commodity prices are volatile and North Sea taxation stays uncertain until the permanent mechanism after 2030. If prices fall or taxation tightens, revenues and investment could be affected.
Competitive position
In the North Sea, competition comes from large operators and recently merged companies, such as Adura, formed by Shell and Equinor, NEO NEXT, formed by Repsol and NEO Energy, and TotalEnergies, which is combining its UK upstream business with NEO NEXT. These companies have greater scale and larger portfolios, which may affect access to assets and financing.
- Adura
New joint venture formed by Shell and Equinor for their UK North Sea oil and gas operations.
- NEO NEXT
Entity created from the merger of Repsol and NEO Energy North Sea operations, to which TotalEnergies is adding its UK business.
- TotalEnergies
Company combining its UK upstream business with NEO NEXT, with completion expected in 2026.
- bp
Operator of the Seagull field, where Ithaca Energy reached equal interest with bp after the JAPEX UK acquisition.
News & filings
In the press
- Bumble Said to Near $1B Sale to IthacaBloomberg Markets · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Dating App Bumble Said to Near $1 Billion Sale to IthacaBloomberg Markets · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ithaca Energy PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.