olivLaw · European equity research
ΚΑΠΝΟΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΑ ΚΑΡΕΛΙΑ Α.Ε. KARE.AT
Greece · Athens Stock Exchange · ISIN GRS120003009 · Vertical: Listed companies from Greece
Karelia Tobacco Industry is a Greek producer of tobacco products, with a domestic distribution network and a presence in more than 50 foreign markets. Its 2025 annual report shows a group aiming to extend its market share, protect margins and cut emissions, which makes its sustainability profile central to strategy.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, ΚΑΠΝΟΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΑ ΚΑΡΕΛΙΑ Α.Ε. (KARE.AT) stock was 434.00 EUR (+2.36% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn EUR, P/E 11.6 on diluted EPS of 37.42 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.14, 52-week range 336.00–446.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 408.74 – 434.06
- in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 6.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 422.40 / 393.52
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.01 / 1.40
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.8% | −0.6% | +4.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.4% | −4.2% | +6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.7% | +4.3% | −3.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.9% | +7.5% | +14.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +21.9% | +9.9% | +12.0 pp | +0.4% |
| 3 years | +40.9% | +49.8% | −8.9 pp | +38.4% |
| 5 years | +50.7% | +42.8% | +7.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.2, median 9.5, max 10.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +13.9% | +10.7% |
| Net income | 86.8 m | 112.8 m | 103.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +29.9% | −8.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 31.47 | 40.87 | 37.42 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +29.9% | −8.5% |
| net % | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% |
| Free cash flow | 74.6 m | 89.9 m | 88.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- unavailable EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 856.5 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 4.48x
- ROE
- 12.5%
- ROA
- 10.4%
- FCF margin
- 5.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 124.7 m | 133.0 m | 162.4 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 97.4 m | 104.7 m | 133.1 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 110.1 m | 143.7 m | 131.9 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 23.3 m | 30.9 m | 28.6 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 86.8 m | 112.8 m | 103.3 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 31.47 | 40.87 | 37.42 | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receivables | 26.4 m | 21.6 m | 35.7 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 70.5 m | 77.3 m | 89.4 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 665.2 m | 743.1 m | 764.1 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 138.0 k | 74.0 k | 107.0 k | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 862.7 m | 953.1 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 130.6 m | 137.4 m | 153.3 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 142.5 m | 153.6 m | 170.6 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 149.3 m | 160.9 m | 174.8 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 713.4 m | 792.2 m | 856.5 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.8 m | 2.8 m | 2.8 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 77.4 m | 92.4 m | 93.1 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.8 m | 2.5 m | 5.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 74.6 m ≈ | 89.9 m ≈ | 88.1 m ≈ | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -152.5 m | 28.2 m | -63.3 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -33.1 m | -34.8 m | -39.2 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 312.10 – 504.78 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E312.10 – 504.78 (Mid 419.24)26 companies used · median multiple 11.2x · quartiles 8.3x – 13.5xAEGN.AT, AEM.AT, ALMY.AT, ASCO.AT, ASTAK.AT, AVAX.AT, BELA.AT, BIOKA.AT, BIOSK.AT, BIOT.AT, BRIQ.AT, BYLOT.AT, CENER.AT, CENTR.AT, DAIOS.AT, DIMAND.AT, EIS.AT, ELBE.AT, ELHA.AT, ELLAKTOR.AT, ELSTR.AT, ELTON.AT, ETE.AT, EUROB.AT, EYAPS.AT, FAIS.AT
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.2% | 41 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 85.3% | 79 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.6x | 53 (vs peers) | 29% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.4% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ΚΑΠΝΟΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΑ ΚΑΡΕΛΙΑ ΑΝΩΝΥΜΟΣ ΕΤΑΙΡΕΙΑ (KARE.AT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 10.7%; net margin 6.2%; ROE 12.5%.
The estimated value range is 312.10–504.78 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 419.24 EUR, the price of 434.00 EUR leaves a potential of -3.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 85.3%
- Current ratio: 4.5x
- FCF yield: 7.4%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Greece · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUROB.ATΤραπεζα Eurobank Ανωνυμη Eταιρεια | 16.5 bn | 12.1 | 14.0% | 39.7% | +2.7% | +32% / +165% |
| ETE.ATΕθνικη Τραπεζα Της Ελλαδος Α.ε. | 14.8 bn | 12.7 | 13.3% | 42.5% | −5.4% | +21% / +159% |
| ELPE.ATHelleniq Energy Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Συμμετοχων | 4.9 bn | 28.2 | 6.4% | 1.5% | −9.0% | +95% / +111% |
| CENER.ATCenergy Holdings | 4.4 bn | 22.9 | 24.3% | 9.4% | +14.7% | +41% / +199% |
| BELA.ATJumbo Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Εταιρεια | 3.7 bn | 11.5 | 21.5% | 26.0% | +7.2% | +0% / +14% |
| AKTR.ATΑκtor Ανώνυμη Εταιρεία Συμμετοχών, Τεχνικών Και Ενεργειακών Έργων | 2.0 bn | 110.6 | 6.7% | 1.3% | +11.2% | +7% / +186% |
| EYDAP.ATΕταιρια Υδρευσεως Και Αποχετευσεως Πρωτευουσης Ανωνυμη Εταιρια | 1.4 bn | — | -2.6% | -5.9% | −2.4% | +83% / +132% |
| ELHA.ATEλβαλχαλκορ Ελληνικη Βιομηχανια Χαλκου Και Αλουμινιου Ανωνυμος Εταιρεια | 1.3 bn | 12.2 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +5.1% | +4% / +80% |
| KARE.ATΚαπνοβιομηχανια Καρελια Ανωνυμος Εταιρεια | 1.2 bn | 11.6 | 12.5% | 6.2% | +10.7% | +28% / +41% |
| AEGN.ATΑεροπορια Αιγαιου Ανωνυμη Αεροπορικη Εταιρεια | 995.2 m | 6.7 | 27.7% | 7.9% | +4.6% | −23% / −3% |
| AVAX.ATΑβαξ Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Εργοληπτικη-Τουριστικη-Εμπορικη-Βιομηχανικη-Οικοδομικων Υλικων & Μηχανηματων | 495.3 m | 10.4 | 25.9% | 5.0% | +47.1% | +37% / +119% |
| BYLOT.ATBally's Intralot Α.ε. | 460.2 m | 15.1 | -9.3% | -12.6% | +34.8% | +10% / +17% |
| ELLAKTOR.ATΕλλακτωρ Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια | 419.4 m | 2.7 | 26.1% | 175.2% | −74.8% | −32% / −44% |
| AEM.ATAlter Ego Media Α.ε. | 350.0 m | 17.8 | 18.3% | 14.0% | +12.6% | −3% / unavailable |
| ALMY.ATΑλουμυλ Βιομηχανια Αλουμινιου Αε | 319.4 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 6.0% | +11.7% | +15% / +118% |
| DIMAND.ATDimand Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Αξιοποιησης Και Εκμεταλλευσης Ακινητων Και Κατασκευων Υπηρεσιων Και Συμμετοχων | 266.7 m | 7.6 | 18.5% | 58.5% | +110.6% | +42% / +28% |
| EVR.ATΕυρώπη Holdings Α.ε. | 168.6 m | 37.2 | 2.9% | 30.7% | +435.3% | −32% / +33% |
| EYAPS.ATΕταιρεια Υδρευσης & Αποχετευσης Θεσσαλονικης Α.ε. | 166.6 m | 21.6 | 4.1% | 8.8% | +2.4% | +22% / +39% |
| BRIQ.ATBriq Properties Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Επενδυσεων Σε Ακινητη Περιουσια | 148.6 m | 5.9 | 15.5% | 116.9% | +37.8% | +12% / +69% |
| FAIS.ATΦαις Συμμετοχων Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια | 116.3 m | 8.7 | 22.1% | 6.3% | +12.9% | −7% / unavailable |
| DAIOS.ATΔαϊος Πλαστικα Ανωνυμη Βιομηχανικη Εμπορικη Εταιρεια Α.ε. | 102.0 m | 10.3 | 14.0% | 15.6% | +9.1% | −5% / +113% |
| ASTAK.ATAlpha Real Estate Services Ae | 94.7 m | 12.6 | 10.4% | 30.3% | +22.4% | −7% / −7% |
| ASCO.ATA.s. Εμπορικη-Βιομηχανικη Εταιρια Η/υ & Παιχνιδιων Α.ε. | 59.6 m | 10.4 | 14.1% | 15.8% | +16.4% | +10% / +105% |
| AVE.ATAve Α.ε. | 50.4 m | — | -25.2% | -7.4% | +8.2% | −8% / −13% |
| ELTON.ATΕλτον Διεθνους Εμποριου Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Βιομηχανικη Εταιρεια | 46.8 m | 13.7 | 4.9% | 1.9% | +8.6% | −12% / −19% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KARE.AT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 272.54 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 480.48 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 721.88 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 298.55 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 588.89 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 966.49 Total return 123% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 327.03 Total return -25% · Per year -6% | 721.78 Total return 66% · Per year 11% | 1,293.99 Total return 198% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 147.22
- Net margin± 103.06
- Annual revenue growth± 79.84
- Annual dilution± 8.66
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Karelia Tobacco Industry is a Greek producer of tobacco products, with a domestic distribution network and a presence in more than 50 foreign markets 1. Its 2025 annual report shows a group aiming to extend its market share, protect margins and cut emissions, which makes its sustainability profile central to strategy.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a portfolio of proprietary brands and a modern factory, described as meeting the highest international standards 1.
- Its domestic distribution network and presence in many foreign markets give a diversified revenue base 1.
- The internal control and risk management system is described as comprehensive and reported regularly to the board 1.
Weaknesses
- The excerpt provided does not include comparative financial data showing how revenue or profitability has changed 1.
- The company does not yet link executive pay to sustainability targets, which remain an option for the future 1.
- Dependence on agricultural raw materials exposes costs to swings the company can only partly control 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on tobacco leaf supplymedium
The quality and cost of the agricultural raw material can vary from year to year, and supply disruptions could affect production 1.
- Regulation of tobacco productshigh
Legislative changes in domestic and foreign markets could restrict sales or require additional packaging and marketing rules 1.
- Climate risksmedium
The company's resilience analysis identifies physical and transition climate risks that could affect costs or operations if not managed 1.
- Compliance with new reporting standardsmedium
Applying the ESRS and law 5164/2024 requires full data across the value chain, and gaps in data could lead to reporting errors 1.
- Reputational risklow
Claims about sustainability performance could be seen as overstated if not verified, which would weaken stakeholder trust 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the expansion into foreign markets succeeds, the company could diversify revenue and strengthen its brand position 1.
- Ongoing investment in plant modernisation and energy efficiency could support margins over the long term 1.
- A well-structured internal control and risk management system could reduce operational and compliance incidents 1.
What would break the thesis
- Tighter tobacco regulation could limit volume growth in key markets 1.
- Sustainability compliance and reporting costs could rise faster than revenue, especially without clear comparative data 1.
- Dependence on agricultural raw materials and weather conditions could create volatility in costs and output 1.
What to watch
- Progress on cutting Scope 1 and 2 emissions against the 2022 base2030
- Completion of the climate resilience analysis of the business model2025
- Results of the planned external audit of the internal control systemearly 2026
- Board decision on including sustainability indicators in the remuneration policynext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group's strategy focuses on sustainability through expansion into new markets and growth of share in existing ones, with high-quality products made at its modern plant 1. The company says it also pursues productivity gains and cost control to protect profit margins 1. The annual report ties the strategy to sustainability policies, including targets for energy, waste and emissions 1.
Sourcing raw materials, especially tobacco leaf, is presented as an essential part of operations, with focus on quality, purchase timing and proper storage 1. The company invests continuously in research and development of new brands and in staff training 1. The report also states that value for the Greek economy comes from its domestic distribution network, tax payments and dividends to shareholders 1.
The business model rests on proprietary brands, quality control at every production stage and close relations with suppliers, customers and the local community 1. Management states that the factory must remain a modern unit meeting the highest international standards 1. The report also points to the role of risk management and internal control in supporting this model 1.
Segments
Tobacco products and proprietary brands
The core segment is the production and sale of tobacco products under proprietary high-quality brands, aimed at both the domestic market and exports to more than 50 markets 1. Differentiation rests on brand image and manufacturing quality, according to the report 1.
Market context
The company operates in the domestic Greek market through its own distribution network and in more than 50 international markets 1. The excerpt of the annual report does not give market size or market share figures, so competitive positioning remains largely descriptive 1.
The export market plays an important role in the expansion strategy the company describes, which targets new markets and share growth in existing ones 1. Regulatory changes and sustainability reporting requirements, such as the CSRD transposed by law 5164/2024, shape how the company reports its activity 1.
Trends
- Energy transition and decarbonisation targetsmixed
The company targets a 20 percent cut in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030 against a 2022 base year and is working on a climate resilience analysis 1. If the targets are met, compliance costs could be partly offset by energy efficiency, according to the report 1.
- Sustainability reporting requirementsmixed
The new requirements under law 5164/2024 and the ESRS standards have expanded reporting obligations and led to non-financial risks being included in the risk management system 1. This pressure could raise administrative costs, but also improve transparency towards investors 1.
- Regulatory pressure on tobacco productsheadwind
The report does not detail specific regulations, but lists compliance with the regulatory framework as an objective of the internal control system 1. Changes in tobacco rules could affect volumes and prices, under market conditions that remain uncertain 1.
- Operational efficiency and raw material costsmixed
The company aims to raise productivity and optimise costs to keep margins healthy, and leaf purchases are managed with attention to quality and timing 1. Swings in raw material costs could still squeeze margins if they are not offset 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name the company's competitors, and the available information does not allow a quantitative comparison of market shares 1. By its own description, the company differentiates through proprietary brands and the quality of production at its modern factory 1.
Competition likely turns on brand image, pricing and access to export markets, which the company itself lists as strategic goals 1. A full analysis would need data from other sources, since the source document offers no comparative information 1.
- Leading Greek tobacco producers
Local or regional rivals mentioned only in general terms; the source document does not name them or give comparative data.
- International cigarette manufacturers
Multinational companies active in the same export markets; the report does not identify them, so they remain unconfirmed by the source.
- European tobacco brands with wide distribution
Rivals in similar markets; the source gives no names or figures, so they are not verified.
- Regional tobacco product producers
Players in the foreign markets where the company is present; not identified in the annual report.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202523 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202423 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ΚΑΠΝΟΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΑ ΚΑΡΕΛΙΑ Α.Ε. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.