olivLaw · European equity research
Kier Group plc KIE.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0004915632 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Kier Group is a British construction and infrastructure group, active mainly in public works, utilities and social buildings. Against a national ten-year infrastructure programme of over £700bn, the company focuses its strategy on growth, balance sheet resilience and performance while gradually exiting property assets.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Kier Group plc (KIE.L) stock was 3.07 GBP (−0.90% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn GBP, P/E 22.8 on diluted EPS of 0.14 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.54%, beta 0.94, 52-week range 1.91–3.20 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.92 – 3.21
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.51 · band width 9.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.91 / 2.38
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.06 / 0.07
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.1% | −0.6% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +23.7% | −4.2% | +27.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +44.4% | +4.3% | +40.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +38.4% | +7.5% | +30.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +43.9% | +9.9% | +34.0 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +202.4% | +49.8% | +152.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +181.8% | +42.8% | +139.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 13.9, median 16.2, max 17.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.4% | +6.8% |
| Net income | 42.7 m | 56.4 m | 61.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +32.1% | +9.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +27.4% | +11.6% |
| net % | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Free cash flow | 223.0 m | 223.9 m | 223.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 1.9 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- 265.2 m GBP
- Net debt
- -1.6 bn GBP
- Equity
- 511.4 m GBP
- Total assets
- 3.9 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.52x
- Current ratio
- 0.90x
- ROE
- 12.0%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 335.0 m | 330.8 m | 380.5 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 103.1 m | 113.7 m | 118.7 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 44.2 m | 43.6 m | 42.6 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 68.1 m | 78.1 m | 83.8 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.8 m | 21.7 m | 22.0 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 42.7 m | 56.4 m | 61.7 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.14 | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 | esef· 06 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 237.3 m | 202.8 m | 255.9 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 74.0 m | 65.6 m | 64.6 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 27.7 m | 28.0 m | 20.5 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 58.8 m | 0 | — | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 242.0 m | 263.9 m | 265.2 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 520.1 m | 517.2 m | 511.4 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 431.3 m | 440.6 m | 437.6 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 230.1 m | 235.0 m | 229.4 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 7.1 m | 11.1 m | 5.9 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 223.0 m ≈ | 223.9 m ≈ | 223.5 m ≈ | esef· 06 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -44.3 m | -68.4 m | -19.7 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -100.9 m | -160.3 m | -180.1 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 7.3 m | 24.1 m | 34.1 m | esef· 06 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.7 m | 16.1 m | — | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.4% | 26 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 362.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 22.8x | 28 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 16.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.7% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 15.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
KIER GROUP PLC (KIE.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.4 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth 6.8%; net margin 1.4%; ROE 12.0%.
The estimated value range is 1.52–2.35 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.95 GBP, the price of 3.07 GBP leaves a potential of -36.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -57.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 362.2%
- FCF yield: 16.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 15.3%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.4%
- Interest coverage: 2.8x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- P/E (TTM): 22.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| KIE.LKier Group PLC | 1.3 bn | 22.8 | 12.0% | 1.4% | +6.8% | +37% / +182% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KIE.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.94 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 3.43 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 5.15 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 1.97 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 3.90 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 6.44 Total return 121% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 2.00 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 4.45 Total return 61% · Per year 10% | 8.04 Total return 183% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 0.98
- Net margin± 0.68
- Annual revenue growth± 0.55
- Annual dilution± 0.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Kier Group is a British construction and infrastructure group, active mainly in public works, utilities and social buildings. Against a national ten-year infrastructure programme of over £700bn 1, the company focuses its strategy on growth, balance sheet resilience and performance while gradually exiting property assets.
SWOT
Strengths
- The public and regulated customer base provides a stable revenue foundation, and reimbursable contracts reduce commercial risk.
- The order book and framework positions provide visibility over future activity.
- Management has set clear resilience and performance targets, with a plan to reduce property assets.
Weaknesses
- Divisional margins are relatively thin, especially in Construction, leaving little room for execution errors.
- The company's history includes periods of financial strain, and investor confidence depends on execution of the plan.
- Diversity in senior leadership remains below stated targets, notably on the Executive Committee, which has no ethnic minority representation.
Opportunities
- The national infrastructure programme and investment in water, energy and defence could open new contracts.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligence could improve productivity and project delivery quality.
- Reallocating capital from property could support growth in core sectors.
Threats
- Delays in public funding or changes to investment programmes could reduce new order volume.
- Cost pressure and supply chain risks could erode margins if not passed through in contracts.
- Intense tender competition could push prices down and limit returns on new projects.
Risks
- Health, safety and wellbeinghigh
Complex and hazardous operations could lead to serious incidents with financial and reputational consequences. Management treats this as a top priority.
- Macroeconomic and geopoliticalmedium
International tensions and economic swings could affect costs and demand, and management has classified this risk as increasing.
- Contract managementmedium
Large contracts with inadequately allocated risks could generate losses, even though bidding policy is selective.
- Cyber securitymedium
Rising cyber-attacks and data risks could disrupt operations and affect client confidence.
- Legislation and regulationlow
Rules in the company's sectors change frequently, and non-compliance could bring fines and loss of contracts.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the infrastructure programme is delivered as planned, the order book and revenue could continue to grow, and the resilience plan could reduce earnings volatility.
- The position in the public and regulated sectors could provide stability, particularly if the Infrastructure division maintains its margins as contracts grow.
- Reallocating capital from property could improve returns on investment and could support the long-term net cash target.
What would break the thesis
- If public funding is delayed or programmes are cut, the volume of new contracts could fall and revenue growth could slow.
- Thin margins in Construction leave little room for cost overruns, and stronger inflation could hurt results.
- Safety, cyber and compliance risks could generate unforeseen costs and damage the company's reputation.
What to watch
- Development of the order book and new framework positions2027
- Progress on reallocating capital from property activity2027
- Achieving the target of average net cash above £200m2029
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Kier Group plc reports two main divisions for the fiscal year 2026 ended 30 June 2026. Infrastructure recorded revenue of £2.34bn 1 with an adjusted margin of 5.5% 1, while Construction recorded £1.99bn 1 with a margin of 3.9% 1. The company describes its work as essential to the economic and social infrastructure of the UK.
The customer base is dominated by the public sector, which accounts for 76% of activity 1. The rest comes from regulated clients such as water and energy companies and private clients, mostly in London. The contracting model relies on cost reimbursable or two-stage work, which makes up 95% of activity 1, giving greater commercial protection.
The order book stood at £7.4bn in Infrastructure and £4.5bn in Construction at the end of fiscal 2026 1. Management has said it is focusing the company on core markets and growing core operating revenue while reducing exposure to property activity.
Segments
Infrastructure
The Infrastructure division delivers economic projects such as water, energy, transport and defence works. It reported revenue of £2.34bn 1 and an order book of £7.4bn 1, positioned as the main engine of the growth strategy.
Construction
The Construction division focuses on social infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and housing. It had revenue of £1.99bn 1 and an order book of £4.5bn 1, with a lower margin than the Infrastructure division.
Property
Property activity is being reduced, with capital to be reallocated under the resilience strategy over roughly three years. The annual report indicates a gradual reduction of exposure, without a separate figure in the available sources.
Market context
The reference market is the UK ten-year infrastructure programme, backed by over £700bn 1. Demand drivers include ageing assets, decarbonisation obligations, energy security and defence spending. Management estimates the addressable infrastructure maintenance market exceeds £500bn 1, though these are administration estimates rather than contracted figures.
Demand from the public and regulated sectors depends on government funding and utility investment plans. If funding cycles shift or projects are delayed, the volume of new orders could be affected, even though the long-term framework remains supportive.
Trends
- Public infrastructure investmenttailwind
The government ten-year programme supports long-term demand for transport, health, education and water, which could support the company's revenue.
- National security and defencetailwind
The refocus on defence and energy creates new opportunities for the Infrastructure division, although specific budgets are still being updated.
- Inflation and supply chain pressureheadwind
Materials and labour costs could erode margins if not passed through contracts, and the company must manage this risk through contract structure.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencemixed
Technology and data adoption can improve project productivity, but increases exposure to cyber and data risks, which management acknowledges explicitly.
Competitive position
Kier operates in a fragmented market with large construction and infrastructure engineering competitors in the UK and Europe. Competition takes place through tenders, frameworks and careful project selection, especially in the public sector.
The company's advantage rests on long-term relationships with public authorities and utilities, its order book and its ability to win two-stage contracts. A direct comparison of market shares cannot be made from the documents provided alone.
- Balfour Beatty
British construction and infrastructure company active in the same public and utility sectors.
- Costain Group
British civil engineering and utilities group, competing in water and transport projects.
- Morgan Sindall
British construction and urban regeneration group present in the same public contracts.
- Galliford Try
British residential construction and infrastructure company competing in regional tenders.
News & filings
In the press
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202606 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202514 Oct 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Kier Group plc · 30 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.