olivLaw · European equity research
Lloyds Banking Group plc LLOY.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0008706128 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Lloyds Banking Group is the largest bank in the United Kingdom, running an integrated financial services model across retail and commercial banking, insurance and pensions. As interest rates ease gradually, the group aims to grow faster than the economy, with a focus on mortgages, pensions and investments. Its mortgage market share and the cut in Bank Rate are central to this strategy.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY.L) stock was 0.97 GBP (−0.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 64.5 bn GBP, P/E 14.0 on diluted EPS of 0.07 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.44%, beta 1.05, 52-week range 0.87–1.17 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.94 – 1.08
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 14.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.06 / 1.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.3% | −0.6% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.5% | −4.2% | −11.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.1% | +4.3% | −5.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.3% | +7.5% | −8.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.2% | +9.9% | −1.7 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +130.1% | +49.8% | +80.3 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +97.4% | +42.8% | +54.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 75 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 6.4, median 9.1, max 14.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -5.3 bn | 18.6 bn | 18.0 bn | 19.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −3.4% | +7.9% |
| Net income | 3.8 bn | 5.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +42.7% | −19.0% | +5.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +53.1% | −17.3% | +11.3% |
| net % | -71.6% | 29.3% | 24.6% | 24.0% |
| Free cash flow | 19.6 bn | 2.8 bn | -8.8 bn | 630.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 60.6 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 47.9 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 944.1 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 9.9%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -5.3 bn | 18.6 bn | 18.0 bn | 19.4 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.8 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 859.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.8 bn | 5.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.07 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 95.8 bn | 88.8 bn | 70.8 bn | 60.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 881.5 bn | 906.7 bn | 944.1 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 834.1 bn | 860.8 bn | 896.2 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 43.9 bn | 47.4 bn | 45.9 bn | 47.9 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 78.1 bn | 71.8 bn | 70.2 bn | 66.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 22.0 bn | 6.8 bn | -4.4 bn | 5.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.4 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 19.6 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | -8.8 bn ≈ | 630.0 m ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 510.0 m | -9.8 bn | -7.7 bn | — | esef· 25 Feb 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -6.6 bn | -3.5 bn | -5.9 bn | -5.4 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 64.5 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 24.0% | 77 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 13.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 12.1% | 81 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.0x | 61 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.0% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial81/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality39/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial38/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation39/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC (LLOY.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.4 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 7.9%; net margin 24.0%; ROE 10.0%.
The estimated value range is 0.55–0.80 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.68 GBP, the price of 0.97 GBP leaves a potential of -30.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -42.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 24.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 12.1%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 13.5%
- FCF yield: 1.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| LLOY.LLloyds Banking Group PLC | 64.5 bn | 14.0 | 10.0% | 24.0% | +7.9% | +1% / +123% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LLOY.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.60 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 1.06 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 1.60 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 0.62 Total return -27% · Per year -10% | 1.23 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 2.03 Total return 125% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 0.65 Total return -19% · Per year -4% | 1.44 Total return 70% · Per year 11% | 2.59 Total return 197% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 0.31
- Net margin± 0.22
- Annual revenue growth± 0.17
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lloyds Banking Group is the largest bank in the United Kingdom, running an integrated financial services model across retail and commercial banking, insurance and pensions. As interest rates ease gradually, the group aims to grow faster than the economy, with a focus on mortgages, pensions and investments 1. Its mortgage market share and the cut in Bank Rate are central to this strategy 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Dependence on the UK market exposes the group to the domestic economic cycle and local fiscal policy 1.
- Legacy technology infrastructure still needs modernisation, although the number of applications and data centres has fallen 1.
- Pressure on deposit and mortgage margins limits revenue from new business 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Conduct and motor finance riskhigh
Conduct risk stayed elevated in 2025, including over motor finance commission arrangements, where a compensation scheme is under regulatory consultation 1.
- Credit riskmedium
Credit quality has remained stable, but rising unemployment could lead to higher impairment charges 1.
- Capital riskmedium
Growing risk-weighted assets and the upcoming Basel 3.1 implementation could reduce the capital available for distributions 1.
- Economic crime riskmedium
The geopolitical environment and threats of fraud and money laundering could lead to losses and remediation costs 1.
- Operational and cyber risklow
Sophisticated cyber threats and IT outages could affect services and customer trust 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If lower interest rates stimulate mortgage refinancing, the group could benefit from growth faster than the economy, as its own forecast suggests 1.
- Its leading mortgage position and integrated offer could support growing revenue from pensions and investments 1.
- Digital and AI initiatives could reduce costs and add incremental revenue in line with stated targets 1.
What to watch
- Path of Bank of England rates and mortgage refinancing activity2026
- Outcome of the consultation on the motor finance compensation scheme2026
- Basel 3.1 implementation and its effect on the CET1 ratioQ1 2027
- Delivery against the stated targets for additional revenue and RoTE2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group provides banking, lending, insurance and pension services in the UK through brands such as Lloyds, Halifax, Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows. According to the 2025 annual report, it aims to be the UK's only integrated financial services provider, with the goal of helping Britain prosper 1. Its strategy rests on three priorities: grow, focus and change, supported by roughly 3 billion pounds of strategic investment over 2022 to 2025 1.
Segments
Mortgages and housing
The group is the UK's largest mortgage lender, with an 18.9% share of total gross mortgage lending flow in 2025 1. Its First Time Buyer Boost proposition was used by 14,000 customers in 2025 1.
Trends
- Falling interest ratestailwind
Lower rates could let mortgage customers refinance at cheaper rates, which would support the economy as a marginal positive 1.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencemixed
Customers are increasingly using digital channels and AI tools, which lowers costs but intensifies competition and pressure on legacy infrastructure 1.
- Pressure on new business marginsheadwind
Intense competition in deposits and mortgages could keep pressure on new business margins 1.
- Evolving regulationmixed
The Leeds Reforms, the ring-fencing review and new rules for digital assets could open opportunities but may also add compliance costs 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from high street banks and building societies consolidating scale, and from new digital entrants building targeted offers quickly 1. The group responds with cross-Group propositions and direct and intermediary digital journeys 1.
- High street banks and building societies
Rivals in UK deposits and mortgages that are consolidating the sector to gain share 1.
- Neobanks and fintechs
New entrants with strong digital experiences that win customers through tightly targeted propositions 1.
- Technology and digital platform providers
Providers of modern banking platforms that make it easier for customers to hold relationships with several providers 1.
- Digital asset operators
Firms developing tokenised payments and assets, an area the group plans to develop 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Lloyds executive criticises Healey for linking bank tax rises to energy bill supportThe Guardian World · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lloyds Beats Estimates on Rise in Fees and Interest IncomeBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lloyds formează dublu minim înainte de bugetul Regatului Unit și rezultatele T3 - InvezzSurge — Google News · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Analiză preț acțiuni Lloyds înainte de rezultatele din T3 și majorarea dobânzii BoE - InvezzSurge — Google News · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Băncile din Marea Britanie sunt inundate de reclamații din partea utilizatorilor de criptomonede, în frunte cu Lloyds și Barclays - Bitcoin NewsSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- UK urged to act as Polymarket takes bets on whether HSBC and Lloyds will failThe Guardian World · 03 Oct 2026 · EN
- Previziuni pentru principalele acțiuni FTSE 100: Vodafone, Lloyds Bank, Rolls-Royce, Glencore - InvezzSurge — Google News · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Lloyds Banking Group Maps 2030 Growth Plan as U.K. Consumers Stay ResilientYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- UK house prices fall for first time in nearly three years, says LloydsThe Guardian World · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- Lloyds Metals Allowed to Ready Restart of Giant PNG Copper MineBloomberg Markets · 12 Aug 2026 · EN
- UK house prices flat in July, says Lloyds, as buyers struggle with affordabilityThe Guardian World · 07 Aug 2026 · RO
- Lloyds Bank to cut £2bn in costs as part of AI-powered strategyThe Guardian World · 30 Jul 2026 · RO
- Lloyds Banking Group CEO on Earnings, 2030 PlanBloomberg Markets · 30 Jul 2026 · EN
- Halifax to disappear from UK high street as Lloyds axes bank brand after 173 yearsThe Guardian World · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
- Lloyds Banking Group to hire 300 tech experts to work on AIThe Guardian World · 20 Jun 2026 · RO
- Lloyds Taps Japan’s Booming Samurai Market With ¥75 Billion SaleBloomberg Markets · 12 Jun 2026 · EN
- Lloyds Plans SRT Tied to $4.2 Billion of Loans to Smaller FirmsBloomberg Markets · 11 Jun 2026 · EN
- Lloyds customers unable to make payments due to IT glitchThe Guardian World · 03 Jun 2026 · RO
- Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland app users report outageBBC News — Technology · 03 Jun 2026 · RO
- Halifax could disappear from UK high streets as Lloyds assesses branding strategyThe Guardian World · 18 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Lloyds Banking Group plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.