olivLaw · European equity research
Marston's PLC MARS.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B1JQDM80 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Marston's PLC is a British pub operator that in fiscal 2025 described itself as a pure-play hospitality company after its transformation. The company operates in an environment of persistent inflation and fluctuating consumer confidence, which makes its ability to fund medium-term plans a relevant question.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Marston's PLC (MARS.L) stock was 0.59 GBP (+0.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 371.9 m GBP, P/E 5.3 on diluted EPS of 0.11 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.77, 52-week range 0.44–0.69 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.49 – 0.64
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.67 · band width 26.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.51 / 0.53
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +28.0% | −0.6% | +28.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.9% | −4.2% | +17.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.9% | +4.3% | +10.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.7% | +7.5% | −8.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +28.9% | +9.9% | +18.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +90.0% | +49.8% | +40.1 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −28.3% | +42.8% | −71.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 3.5, median 3.5, max 3.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 872.3 m | 898.6 m | 897.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.0% | −0.1% |
| Net income | -9.3 m | -18.5 m | 71.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -1.1% | -2.1% | 8.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 34.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 1.2 bn GBP
- Equity
- 790.7 m GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- 1.57x
- Current ratio
- 0.31x
- ROE
- 9.9%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 872.3 m | 898.6 m | 897.9 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 90.2 m | 151.7 m | 179.7 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 100.4 m | 106.5 m | 90.0 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -30.6 m | 14.4 m | 88.3 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Income tax | -11.4 m | -3.1 m | 16.7 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | -9.3 m | -18.5 m | 71.6 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.11 | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 26.5 m | 44.4 m | 34.8 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Receivables | 26.9 m | 25.9 m | 27.6 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Inventories | 14.9 m | 14.4 m | 13.8 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Current assets | 74.3 m | 87.1 m | 77.3 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 170.4 m | 179.5 m | 182.1 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 65.9 m | 58.2 m | 62.2 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 237.7 m | 241.1 m | 248.8 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | 640.1 m | 654.8 m | 790.7 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 620.0 m | 637.9 m | 633.6 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 371.9 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.5% | 25 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.0% | 43 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 5.3x | 89 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 3 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet5/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial3/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial89/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MARSTON'S PLC (MARS.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 897.9 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth -0.1%; net margin 8.0%; ROE 9.9%.
The estimated value range is 1.25–1.93 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.60 GBP, the price of 0.59 GBP leaves a potential of 172.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 63.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 5.3x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 7.5%
- Interest coverage: 2.0x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| MARS.LMarston's PLC | 371.9 m | 5.3 | 9.9% | 8.0% | −0.1% | −2% / +97% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MARS.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.34 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 0.60 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 0.90 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 0.30 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 0.60 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 0.99 Total return 69% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 0.26 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 0.60 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 1.09 Total return 86% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 0.15
- Net margin± 0.10
- Annual revenue growth± 0.09
- Annual dilution± 0.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Marston's PLC is a British pub operator that in fiscal 2025 described itself as a pure-play hospitality company after its transformation. The company operates in an environment of persistent inflation and fluctuating consumer confidence, which makes its ability to fund medium-term plans a relevant question.1
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a cost control plan and a treasury committee that monitors liquidity and covenants, supporting financial stability.1
- Differentiated formats and technology-enabled cost controls help attract a broad range of customers.1
- Management has shown the ability to respond quickly to changing conditions and has strong relationships with suppliers.1
Weaknesses
- The company depends on liquidity and access to bank financing, and its liquidity needs are seasonal in nature.1
- Exposure to energy, food and wage costs can reduce margins if prices cannot be passed on to customers.1
- Execution risk on transformation projects can lead to delays or smaller benefits than expected.1
Opportunities
Risks
- Economic and geopolitical uncertaintyhigh
Inflation, slow growth and high interest rates can reduce visits and customer spending, and the risk has increased slightly compared with the previous year.1
- Liquidity and financinghigh
The company depends on access to bank financing and capital markets, and the bank facility must be refinanced by July 2027.1
- Strategy delivery and transformationmedium
Factors such as organisational capability, pace of change and capital allocation could prevent delivery of strategy on the desired timelines.1
- Cyber security and ITmedium
Increasingly sophisticated cyber threats can lead to lost revenue, data breaches and regulatory action.1
- Health, safety and allergensmedium
Food safety, allergen or fire incidents can cause injury, loss of trust and penalties.1
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If inflation pressure eases, customers could return to pubs more often, and the company could benefit from its differentiated formats.
- A flexible structure and technology-enabled cost controls could protect margins even in a difficult economic environment.
- Management's experience in transforming the company and its strong supplier relationships can support strategy execution.
What would break the thesis
- If inflation and interest rates stay high, customers' discretionary income could fall more than expected.
- The need to refinance the bank facility and the dependence on seasonal liquidity could limit financial flexibility.
- Rising regulatory and wage costs could compress margins if prices cannot be passed on to customers.
What to watch
- Trends in pub visits and average spend per visitNext 10-K
- Progress on refinancing the bank facility2027
- Results of the Two Door, Grandstand and Family formats2027
- Impact of new wage and alcohol regulation on costs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for the year ended 27 September 2025, Marston's PLC describes its activity as hospitality, following its transformation into a pure-play company in this field.1 The Board oversaw development of new formats including Two Door, Grandstand and Family.1 The strategy aims at a flexible business model with a lean structure and technology-enabled cost controls.1
The company is run through an Executive Committee led by the Chief Executive Officer, which oversees daily operations, performance and risk management.1 An Investment Committee reviews capital decisions within delegated limits, while a Treasury Committee monitors covenant compliance and liquidity.1
Directors confirm they can support continuity of operations and meeting obligations over a three-year period, considered appropriate for group planning.1 This assessment considers a possible reduction in sales, and the company notes the bank facility must be refinanced by July 2027.1
Segments
Pub formats
The core activity is the pubs run by the company, and the development of the Two Door, Grandstand and Family formats is tracked by the Board as part of the growth strategy.1
Capital development
Capital investments are assessed by a dedicated committee, which checks whether projects are delivered on time and whether returns approach expectations.1
Operations and supply chain
Management handles continuity risk through periodically reviewed contracts with critical suppliers, contingency plans and monitoring of IT infrastructure.1
Market context
The annual report describes a hospitality market shaped by high inflation, slow economic growth and high interest rates, which reduce consumers' disposable income.1 Management considers that lower visit frequency and average spend per visit are possible, although it expects the effect to be temporary.1
Wage legislation, rules on alcohol consumption and possible new taxes can raise operating costs for pub operators, and companies in the sector could adjust prices to protect margins.1
Trends
- Inflationary pressureheadwind
Persistent inflation and higher costs for energy, food and wages can compress margins and reduce consumers' discretionary income.1
- Regulatory changesheadwind
Changes to minimum wage, health rules on alcohol and taxes on alcohol, energy or carbon emissions can raise compliance costs.1
- Transformation into pure-play hospitalitytailwind
Development of new formats and reorganisation of the structure can support the appeal of the offer and the ability to respond quickly to changing conditions.1
- Digitalisation and cyber securitymixed
Dependence on digital systems increases exposure to cyber attacks, but technology investment and systems testing can strengthen cost control and reporting.1
Competitive position
The annual report notes that experience of inflation and economic uncertainty could lead to lasting changes in guest behaviour and competition in hospitality.1 The company considers that pubs have been resilient in previous downturns and offer value to consumers.1
Differentiation through formats and attractive offers is the main tool the company uses to maintain its position against other operators in the sector.1
- Other UK pub operators
The annual report does not name competitors; competition is described generically within UK hospitality.1
- Restaurant and bar operators
Competition for consumers' discretionary spending comes from restaurants and entertainment venues, described in the report only as a change in guest behaviour.1
- Drinks retail and at-home consumption
The report mentions pressure on pub consumption without naming competing companies.1
- New entrants to hospitality
The report notes that changes in the sector may bring new players, without nominal identification in the source.1
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202516 Dec 2025
- Annual report 202418 Dec 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-09-27 (ESEF) · SEC / Marston's PLC · 27 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.