olivLaw · European equity research
Morgan Sindall Group plc MGNS.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0008085614 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Morgan Sindall Group plc is a UK construction and urban regeneration group whose 2025 annual report puts weight on ambitious climate targets, including net zero by 2045 through cutting Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 90%. The company is relevant now because decarbonisation requirements are reshaping how construction work is contracted and delivered.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Morgan Sindall Group plc (MGNS.L) stock was 43.10 GBP (+4.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.0 bn GBP, P/E 12.1 on diluted EPS of 3.55 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.25%, beta 0.72, 52-week range 38.56–55.30 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 37.73 – 42.41
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 11.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 41.14 / 45.29
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / -0.33
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.6% | −0.6% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.5% | −4.2% | +0.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.4% | +4.3% | −13.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.3% | +7.5% | −14.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.8% | +9.9% | −15.7 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +123.5% | +49.8% | +73.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +87.4% | +42.8% | +44.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.8, median 13.1, max 14.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +10.4% | +10.4% |
| Net income | 117.7 m | 131.7 m | 174.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +11.9% | +32.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.50 | 2.72 | 3.55 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +8.4% | +30.7% |
| net % | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
| Free cash flow | 181.7 m | 110.6 m | 171.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 590.5 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 59.3 m GBP
- Net debt
- -531.2 m GBP
- Equity
- 748.8 m GBP
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.08x
- Current ratio
- 1.23x
- ROE
- 25.1%
- ROA
- 7.6%
- FCF margin
- 3.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 447.6 m | 529.9 m | 612.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 140.6 m | 162.0 m | 224.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 7.5 m | 8.3 m | 8.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 143.9 m | 171.9 m | 231.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 26.2 m | 40.2 m | 56.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 117.7 m | 131.7 m | 174.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.50 | 2.72 | 3.55 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.78 | 1.20 | 1.40 | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 541.3 m | 544.2 m | 590.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 461.6 m | 453.5 m | 553.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 344.7 m | 476.0 m | 603.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 86.0 m | 95.1 m | — | esef· 17 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 80.6 m | 51.8 m | 59.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 568.1 m | 647.2 m | 748.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 46.3 m | 46.8 m | 47.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 196.0 m | 128.8 m | 187.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 14.3 m | 18.2 m | 16.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 181.7 m ≈ | 110.6 m ≈ | 171.3 m ≈ | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.0 m | 4.7 m | -24.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -78.9 m | -101.8 m | -124.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 48.1 m | 56.1 m | 65.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 11.3 m | 47.2 m | 40.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 82 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.0 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality81
- Returns85
- Balance sheet74
- Valuation85
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 82/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 91.1% | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.5% | 34 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 97.9% | 97 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 25.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 36 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.1x | 72 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.3% | 75 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 38.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet74/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns85/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP PLC (MGNS.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.0 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 10.4%; net margin 3.5%; ROE 25.1%.
The estimated value range is 40.06–61.77 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 51.18 GBP, the price of 43.10 GBP leaves a potential of 18.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 15.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 82/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 91.1%
- FCF conversion: 97.9%
- Interest coverage: 25.9x
- P/E (TTM): 12.1x
- FCF yield: 8.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 38.4%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| MGNS.LMorgan Sindall Group PLC | 2.0 bn | 12.1 | 25.1% | 3.5% | +10.4% | −9% / +112% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MGNS.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 28.30 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 49.90 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 74.98 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 30.81 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 60.81 Total return 54% · Per year 15% | 99.83 Total return 147% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 33.55 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 74.10 Total return 95% · Per year 14% | 132.93 Total return 239% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 15.20
- Net margin± 10.64
- Annual revenue growth± 8.27
- Annual dilution± 0.89
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Morgan Sindall Group plc is a UK construction and urban regeneration group whose 2025 annual report puts weight on ambitious climate targets, including net zero by 2045 through cutting Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 90%. The company is relevant now because decarbonisation requirements are reshaping how construction work is contracted and delivered.
SWOT
Strengths
- Clear climate commitments aligned with the SBTi standard, going beyond a 1.5°C trajectory and aiming at net zero by 2045.
- Emissions reporting methodology aligned with the GHG Protocol, with annual verification of emission factors.
- Transparent revision of the Scope 3 baseline shows a commitment to data accuracy.
Weaknesses
- Emissions from carbon-intensive materials were higher than previously reported, indicating an initially incomplete coverage.
- Reliance on carbon credit offsets for residual emissions introduces uncertainty about their cost and quality.
- The source provides no segment financial details, which limits assessment of the profitability of its activities.
Opportunities
- Client demand for lower-emission construction could support higher-value work.
- Expertise in procurement and activity data could become an advantage in tenders requiring climate reporting.
- Natural capital projects used for offsets could lead to partnerships with conservation organisations.
Threats
- The cost of lower-emission materials could increase pressure on contract margins.
- Emissions regulation could become stricter than the company's current plans.
- Reputational risk if climate targets are not met at intermediate stages.
Risks
- Delivery of the net zero targethigh
Achieving a 90% reduction in emissions by 2045 depends on changes in the supply chain and construction methods.
- Scope 3 emissions uncertaintymedium
The recent baseline revision shows earlier estimates may have been incomplete, which could lead to further reassessments.
- Cost of carbon creditsmedium
Offsetting 10% of residual emissions with high-quality credits could become costly or difficult to source.
- Regulatory changesmedium
Changes to the UK climate reporting framework could impose additional requirements on the company.
- General external factorslow
The document warns that economic, political, exchange rate and interest rate changes could cause actual results to differ from expectations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Ambitious climate commitments could attract clients who require net zero criteria in procurement.
- Methodological transparency on emissions could strengthen confidence among investors and public clients.
- If the company meets its intermediate targets, it could hold an advantage in lower-emission construction.
What would break the thesis
- The long-term target depends on multi-year execution, and implementation risks remain significant.
- The Scope 3 baseline revision suggests emissions may be higher than estimated, which could raise costs.
- The absence of financial detail in the source makes it difficult to assess the impact of decarbonisation costs on profitability.
What to watch
- Progress on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions against the 2019 baselinenext annual report
- Updates to the Scope 3 methodology and new reference values2026
- Volume and cost of high-quality carbon credits purchased2027
- Progress on the intermediate emissions reduction target on the path to 20452030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Morgan Sindall Group plc is a London-listed company with its registered office at Market Place, London, whose 2025 annual report describes its activity in construction, infrastructure and regeneration. From the available source, the document focuses in particular on environmental strategy and greenhouse gas accounting rather than segment financial detail. The company reports emissions for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, aligned to the GHG Protocol.
The annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025 includes science-based targets aligned with the SBTi, which go beyond a 1.5°C trajectory. The company aims to reduce Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 90% by 2045 and to offset the remaining 10% through high-quality carbon credits, according to the document.
Scope 3 emissions include categories such as embodied carbon in materials, carbon emitted during construction and operating the buildings for 60 years after handover to the client. The company revised its 2020 Scope 3 baseline in 2025, relying on spend and activity-based data, which led to a significant upward revision of the reference value.
Segments
Construction and infrastructure works
The source describes construction works as the main source of Scope 3 emissions, particularly through embodied materials and energy used on site. The document does not provide revenue figures for this segment.
Regeneration and property development
The source mentions emissions linked to operating buildings for 60 years after handover, indicating that property development carries a long-term environmental responsibility. Segment financial details do not appear in the available text.
Market context
The available source contains no market data or market shares for the UK construction sector. The decarbonisation pressure from the Paris Agreement, which pledged roughly 200 countries to limit global warming to 1.5°C, forms the regulatory context in which the company operates.
The net zero framework for 2050 and SBTi standards increasingly define requirements for clients and contractors in the sector. The pace at which these standards are adopted in public and private procurement is not described in the source.
Trends
- Decarbonisation and net zero standardsmixed
Commitments under the Paris Agreement and the SBTi net zero standard push construction companies towards verifiable targets. If clients increasingly require such commitments, the company could gain an advantage in winning work.
- Scope 3 emissions accountingheadwind
The revision of the Scope 3 methodology for the 2020 baseline raised the figure from 1,300,271 to 1,603,880 tonnes CO2e, showing that supply chain emissions may have been underestimated. This could mean higher compliance costs.
- More precise procurement and activity datatailwind
Moving from revenue-based estimates to spend and activity data allows more accurate reporting of carbon-intensive materials. Over the long term, this transparency could support better procurement decisions.
- Carbon credit offsetsmixed
The company intends to offset 10% of residual emissions through high-quality natural capital projects. The market for these credits and their cost are not detailed in the source, leaving uncertainty about the real cost of this strategy.
Competitive position
The source provided does not identify the company's direct competitors. The document focuses on environmental commitments without comparing its competitive position with other construction or regeneration players.
With no competitor list in the source, assessing relative position remains open. SBTi-aligned 1.5°C commitments could differentiate the company in tenders where clients require climate criteria.
- Not identified in source
The source does not name competitors, so no specific competitor can be assessed from this document.
- Not identified in source
The lack of a competitor list in the report limits direct comparison with other companies in the sector.
- Not identified in source
A complete competitive analysis would require additional documents about the markets in which the company operates.
- Not identified in source
Competitive analysis cannot be supported solely on the basis of the environmental and governance report.
News & filings
In the press
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Morgan Sindall Group plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.